Martin Malone

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Month: October 2011

Now into the proper season with the Charlie Hall!

Just a short post tonight with selections.

Very pleased with the news about Quatre Heures in France. Entered for the feature hurdle in Enghien next Friday and the Grand Prix d’Automne (Grade 1) in Auteuil next Saturday (former more likely).

OK, Ascot is quickly dealt with. Safari Journey is worth a go at 13/1 in the 2.30 and Nearby is outstanding each way value (23/1 – is he a runner?) in the 3.00. A Media Luz is also worthy of attention at 8/1.

The United House Gold Cup (3.40) has a number of iffy horses, any one of which could put in a good performance and should therefore be approached with caution. My choice is Muirhead on the basis that he’s well placed in this. Have to say that Paul Carberry jockey booking is significant given all the current fuss because others would need a level of encouragement that jockeys may be unwilling to provide!

The 4.50 beginners’ chase has some interesting candidates and Michael Flips is good value at slightly odds on. Not an obvious betting option.

So, on to the main fare at Wetherby. We’ll start with the Grade 2 West Yorkshire Hurdle (2.45) and a confident selection which is Carlito Brigante. A good horse who was fully campaigned in his juvenile year and has now had a decent break, putting aside the Dundalk run which was hopefully just a day out. 4/1 is good value because the others have serious questions to be answered.

This is the best Charlie Hall (3.20) for some time and hopefully a justified vote of confidence for trainers who have been concerned about putting their good horses out on a course which has had its criticisms. I’m all against Time For Rupert and Chicago Grey so, for me, Poquelin to beat Diamond Harry is the call. I’ll probably do a reverse exacta to cover the options. Poquelin is tried and tested, particularly at this time of year, and could be lot better than the opposition.

 

 

Aintree – 22 October – I’ll be there so paddock views will follow on Twitter

Any followers of this page will know that I love National Hunt racing and tomorrow will be my first outing of the season. I’ve also accepted an invite to Cheltenham so I’m now in full NH mode! We’ve got good to soft, good in places so, as a general rule, I’m with fit horses coming back after a summer break rather than summer jumpers.

OK, here goes >>>

2.25 I wrote this one up and changed my mind so approaching with caution. Initially with Rumble of Thunder but I have to go with Reindeer Dippin (13/2) with really good form here at the National meeting and trusted to be fit. I’ll make a point of checking him out in the parade ring.

2.55 I have a strong view about this. There were familiar names in the entries (even 14-y-o Mister McGoldrick) and these veterans’ races are nearly always won by ones with recent form, rather than those which are just given a chance late outing. Treacle will win this. No value but this will be won by a margin.

3.30 Master Minded will be fit and ready to win. Track and opponent form and Albertas Run is in and out and generally more out on his first outing. Albertas’ owner loves Aintree but his big missions are later in the season and, unlike MM, he needs things to be right. That said he has career winnings of nearly £800K. However, Master Minded has won £999,772 and this is his chance to break the million. MM is one of the best horses in training and that will show. Another to be checked in the ring but I’m expecting a near as damnit fully fit horse. Paul Nicholls says that he’s not going to be at his peak in October and that defeat to Albertas Run would “not be a disaster” but I get the strong feeling that he’s fit and ready to win. 1/2 is obviously not great value, unless you want to make 50% in 10 minutes!

4.05 This is a tough race and possibly a placepot breaker. I’m looking at it from that point of view so the focus is on place positions in worthwhile races. Gormanstown Cuckoo is the selection. What a Warrior is my saver and, if I’m worried about it, I might also have double saver on Lady Karinga.

4.40 This is the big risk, and probably betraying my preference for French horses with French form, but I’ve taken a view that Edgardo Sol is a good horse. I’ll have a win bet but for the placepot Flinty Bay is the saver. I don’t like Havingotascoobydo which was entered for numerous races and has ended up here.

5.15 Gansey is at his best in the mud in the depth of winter and is therefore disregarded. Others appeal but my marginal favourite is Red Admiral who will need to show that the long time off doesn’t matter. Accordingly my placepot saver is Fine Parchment (this is getting expensive!).

5.45 Dead easy – won’t necessarily have a bet but can’t oppose Hazy Tom – should win.

 

 

 

Racing for all – in one day

2.00 Ascot

This is an easy start to a big day. Can’t have Fame and Glory after Irish outing. This is a fallback. Opinion Poll has to be respected but Times Up is the progressive horse.

2.25 Ascot

There’s no reason why Deacon Blues shouldn’t win this. Definite for jackpot/placepot. However I’ll have a little outside bet on Medician Man – has served me well this season.

3.00 Ascot

This is a reserves race (even for £250K)  because the best ones are off to Churchill Downs for the Breeders Cup. The bare form suggests that some of these are well in but you have to take into account where they’ve been pitched. Accordingly the choice is for Meeznah to beat Banimpire. I realise in doing so I’m dismissing Dancing Rain – intentional.

3.35 Ascot

Frankel will deliver – no doubt at all. Sir Henry Cecil says that the horse has grown and improved and they wouldn’t be contemplating a 4-y-o career unless they think this is a given. I like the 6/4 to win by over three lengths notwithstanding the previous Ascot run. Tom Queally knows what to do and the pacemaker is there.

4.10 Ascot

Although I’m contradicting what I said above (good horses in big races) I can’t have So You Think. I’m with Nathaniel to beat Snow Fairy and Midday in that order. I saw him win at Royal Ascot and I’m very happy that he’s just good enough here, whatever the going.

2.05 Cheltenham

I’ve watched Manger Hanagment through the summer jumps season and that’s where he belongs. However the same can be said for most of these and I’m taking a flyer with Bob Buckler’s Saint Peray (cost £8000 and lifetime winnings £382) but well bred and could come on well for his Exeter UK debut (currently 28/1).

2.40 Cheltenham

I’m going to contradict the rationale for the last race and go with Buck Mulligan, impressive in the last outing at Market Rasen and definitely shaping as a progressive 6-y-o (9/1).

3.15 Cheltenham

This is easy!! Not much to beat and Plan A (with Cheltenham experience) is the outstanding choice. Paul Carberry and Gordon Elliott will deliver with this one (3/1).

3.50 Cheltenham

I had to pause with this one because I was with My Moment last time out at Market Rasen (pulled up). However, if Chicago Grey is fit (no reason why he shouldn’t be), he’ll win. Course form and success in much better races than this (6/1).

4.55 Cheltenham

Not a betting option but worthy of note because of Zaynar‘s debut over fences.

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So that’s it for today. Worth mentioning that RUK have the Canadian races on Sunday evening with three Grade 1’s.

 

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