Just a quick follow up to last week’s post after a few more clues including the weekend’s racing and WP’s press day. First, these are the horses that WP turned out for the press as Cheltenham candidates:
Un de Sceaux, Douvan, Min, Yorkhill, Djakadam, Killultagh Vic, Total Recall, Al Boum Photo, Bonbon au Miel, Footpad.
Invitation Only, Rathvinden, Faugheen, Melon, Wicklow Brave, Augusta Kate, Bacardys, Penhill, Benie des Dieux, Lets Dance.
Vroum Vroum Mag, Lagostovegas, Meri Devie, Ballyward, Brahma Bull, Carter McKay, Duc de Genievres, Fabulous Saga, Getabird.
Laurina, Next Destination, Real Steel, Scarpeta, Sharjah, Whiskey Sour, Mr Adjudicator, Saldier, Stormy Ireland, Blackbow, Hollowgraphic.
His comments about some of them are included in the update below.
What of the weather? When checking before trips to Saint-Martin-de-Gurson I find that Accuweather is the most reliable of the long range forecasts. Some say that Cheltenham has something of a micro-climate. Nonetheless, Accuweather is predicting fairly typical weather for the time of year:
so we shouldn’t expect anything too much out of the ordinary.
Tuesday 13 March
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Kalashnikov (15/2 > 6/1)
WP says:
“Getabird will go for this. He’s been fragile. Sharjah has improved since the poor run at Leopardstown and will run here.”
Arkle Novices’ Chase
Footpad (7/4 ->11/8 > 11/8)
All is well with Footpad. Delighted that WP agrees with me that, in time he could be a Gold Cup horse. “He has a beautiful method of jumping.”
Ultima Handicap Chase
No selection yet
Paul Nicholls suggested at his preview day today that Vicente will be aimed at this one.
Champion Hurdle
Buveur d’Air (4/6 -> 1/2 > 4/7)
Faugheen will probably take part.
“Maybe he might never reach his old heights. I am delighted he was what he was, hopefully he can come back to that but age is not on his side.
“Yorkhill is 60-40 for the Champion Hurdle.”
Wicklow Brave will also take his chance in this one.
Buveur d’Air is Gordon Elliott’s choice as meeting banker.
Mares’ Hurdle
Apples Jade (8/11 -> 4/6 > 4/6)
Vroum Vroum Mag will take her chance. She hasn’t been covered (yet). Benie des Dieux is also likely to participate.
National Hunt Chase
No selection yet
Rathvinden is 60-40 to run in this. Other options are the RSA and JLT. Patrick Mullins has said that he hopes to be riding him here, before Aintree.
Close Brothers Chase
No selection yet
Tommy Silver and Movewiththetimes likely for Nicholls in this race.
Wednesday 14 March
Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle
Samcro (9/4 -> 8/11 > 4/5)
Next Destination and Real Steel will probably run in this although WP says that Samcro “looks like an Irish banker”.
If you believe what Gordon Elliott has to say he might be the least confident of all of us.
“Samcro is a nice horse who has done everything right, but he has to keep improving.
“He is big, good-looking horse and that captures the imagination, although Cheltenham is a big step up again and will be the first time he has travelled for a race – that can often be a big ask too.
“We went over with Death Duty last year thinking he would win, but he never travelled and got very light over there. But Samcro is a big laidback horse and I don’t see it being a problem.”
Coral Cup
No bet yet
RSA Chase
Black Corton (10/1 > 9/1)
Al Boum Photo is a probable for this (could go for the JLT). Bonbon au Miel also probable and Invitation Only could go for the RSA or JLT.
Champion Chase
Altior (11/8 -> 8/11 > 8/11)
WP on Douvan:
“He has been pleasing me, doing everything right. He has a few more bits of work to get through. He has to go for the Champion Chase, all being well. And all is well.
“Not so long ago we were being told we couldn’t train him for the year. He was entered at Gowran because it is beside us and the race may have cut up but the ground was really heavy.”
Min will also run.
Cross Country
Cause of Causes (4/1 -> 7/2 > 7/2)
Fred Winter
No selection yet
Act of Valour probable in this for Paul Nicholls.
Mitchouka (16/1) and Doctor Bartolo (20/1) are interesting.
Champion Bumper
Blackbow (13/2 > 6/1)
WP again:
“Hollowgraphic is a fair horse, a fine looking horse I’m fond of, and I really liked how he did it last time, whereas Blackbow produced an excellent performance at Leopardstown.
“Carefully Selected booked his place by winning at the weekend but Patrick said he always had his place booked! He dropped back in trip but was very good. I’m not sure who he will ride there.”
Patrick Mullins has called Blackbow’s run at the Dublin Racing Festival “the best Bumper performance of the season”. I agree. I think that they thought that Hollowgraphic was their best chance but he has been displaced.
Paul Nicholls’ Danny Kirwan was a very impressive winner of Saturday’s bumper at Kempton and should be considered for a place bet.
Thursday 15 March
JLT Novices’ Chase
Monalee (14/1 > 12/1)
Willoughby Court has a poisoned foot and is a doubtful participant. There is support for Benatar (12/1).
Pertemps Final
No bet yet
Ryanair Chase
Un de Sceaux (9/2 -> 3/1 > 11/4)
WP on Un de Sceaux:
“He’s very strong and everything is fine with him. We are aiming for the Ryanair. I haven’t any other plans.”
Fox Norton is out for the season and this must significantly improve Un de Sceaux’s chance.
Stayers’ Hurdle
Sam Spinner (4/1 -> 11/2 > 5/1)
Augusta Kate is slated to run here with the mares’ hurdle as a backup. Penhill is also planned to run here and WP is very positive:
“We knew form very early on that the Stayers’ Hurdle would be Penhill’s first run of the season and everything has been geared to a spring campaign. He has really pleased me in his work.”
Brown Advisory Plate
No selection yet
Romain de Senam and Le Prezien likely to go for Nicholls. Clan des Obeaux was my selection but, in Nicholls’ words has “thrown a splint”.
Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle
Countister (12/1 -> 12/1 > 12/1)
WP obviously rates Laurina:
“She looks special. She can go for the mares’ novice hurdle. If ever there is a Cheltenham mares’ chase it’ll be for her. She looks really good. She ran in Tramore because the race suited and won since in a winners’ race. She is top-class. I’ve no ground worry with her.”
I’m beginning to think that Laurina could be WP’s banker of the week so my selection is in doubt.
Kim Muir Chase
No selection yet
Braquer d’Or in this one for Nicholls.
Friday 16 March
Triumph Hurdle
Apples Shakira (4/1 -> 3/1 > 3/1)
I think that we’ve got to the stage when people are trying to find horses to beat Apples Shakira. However, her price is unchanged.
Mr Adjudicator “is as fit as a flea” and Saldier “will like a bit of nice ground…He did everything right” (at Gowran). Stormy Ireland “had a bit of a hold up…It was an awesome performance” (at Fairyhouse). I agree and see this one as the main threat to Apples Shakira, but she could go for the mares’ novices’ hurdle (but why would the yard put her up against Laurina given their view of the latter).
Redicean was an impressive winner at Kempton on Saturday but not enough to shake my view that Apples Shakira is the one to beat, particularly on better ground.
County Hurdle
No selection yet
Lagostovegas is likely to run here and “would appreciate some better ground”.
Ben Pauling’s Global Citizen was the most impressive winner on Kempton’s Saturday card and he’s now aimed here but at 20/1 so people must think that he’s a doubtful participant.
Max Dynamite remains very interesting in this.
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
Next Destination (8/1 -> 6/1)
Brahma Bull (“in good shape”) is likely to run here. Duc des Genievres, Ballyward and Fabulous Saga are also likely participants.
Chef des Obeaux (9/1) must be of interest. If only it wasn’t dodgy form on heavy at Haydock!
Gold Cup
Native River (6/1)
WP has no concerns about Killultagh Vic‘s stamina and he has “schooled well since his fall”. Total Recall is likely to take his chance, but the Grand National remains the target. Say no more.
My very good friend Gerry Rooney, who is known to many readers of this blog, fancies Road To Respect (just a 7-y-o and currently 8/1). He will no doubt be pleased with this glowing assessment from Noel Meade today:
“We are daring to dream. I wish the Gold Cup was the first race on the first day! Nobody can paint a horse that would win a Gold Cup, but anyone who looked at this lad would like him. He is everything you want; he has the most beautiful head, shoulders and depth. He is the most beautiful horse you could wish to see, so if ever you could paint a Gold Cup winner, you would say this could be one.”
Dublin Racing Festival hero Edwulf remains on course to take his place.
Might Bite is rightly drifting (a little).
Foxhunters’ Chase
Caid du Berlais (14/1 -> 14/1 > 12/1)
Paul Nicholls thinks that Wonderful Charm has a “massive chance” in this one, his best of the meeting.
Martin Pipe Hurdle
No selection yet
Zubayr is Nicholls’ call here.
Grand Annual
Copaine de Classe (25/1)
Paul Nicholls has suggested that Dolos will run in this one.
Copaine de Classe had a schooling round after his only opponent fell at the fourth at Fontwell yesterday. While not shaping up as a Cheltenham candidate, he’s been added to the notebook for later in the season.