The weather forecast
Of course we always start here. The going will, of course, be good to soft on Tuesday but it’s looking like it will get faster during the week.
Early views – all subject to declarations and changes in the main previews
All selections are subject to final declarations (and late withdrawals or other late news) so I’m just setting out my initial thoughts.
It’s sad that the featured image includes a crowd that won’t be there but, in reality, I’ve watched the vast majority of Festival races on TV and the excitement for me is undiminished.
These selections are without watching a single preview so they’re all down to me and what I’ve watched on TV (probably too much during the current constraints!).
Supreme – Appreciate It (7/5) – 5/1 bar. Place Keskonrisk (25/1)
Arkle – Energumene (9/4 – no value). Place Franco De Port (20/1)
Ultima – Escaria Ten (10/1)
Champion Hurdle – Goshen (4/1)
Mares’ Hurdle – Concertista (6/5). Place Dame De Compagnie (13/2)
Boodles – Saint Sam (11/2)
National Hunt Chase – Royale Pagaille (2/1 – nap). I think that this horse will love Cheltenham. I hope that he runs here and not in the Gold Cup (for which he’s currently 14/1). Next year please.
Ballymore – Bob Olinger (9/4 – nap) (an exceptional horse)
Brown Advisory (RSA) – Monkfish (4/6 nap of the meeting)
Coral Cup – TBA
Champion Chase – Chacun Pour Soi (evens n/b)
Cross Country – Easysland (evens but no bet for me)
Grand Annual – TBA
Champion Bumper – Kilcruit (9/4 – great value)
Marsh – Envoi Allen (4/5 superb value)
Pertemps – TBA
Ryanair – Fakir D’Oudairies should be declared for this but apparently won’t be. No bet for me but should therefore be Min (6/1)
Stayers’ – Sire Du Berlais (8/1)
Plate – The Shunter (with a run – 12/1)
Mares’ Novices’ – no bet
Kim Muir – Achille (20/1 e/w); Le Breuil (20/1 e/w)
Triumph – Zanahiyr (9/4 nap)
County – TBA
Albert Bartlett – Alaphilippe (10/1)
Gold Cup – Champ (5/1 – great value)
Hunters’ – maybe It Came To Pass (9/1) – TBA
Mares’ Chase – Elimay (7/4 – nap)
Martin Pipe – Gentleman De Mee (6/1 – n/b)
If you like combination bets, now is the time to get on before the main favs shorten. Make sure that you take the prices and here are my selections:
- National Hunt – Royale Pagaille
- Ballymore – Bob Olinger
- Brown Advisory – Monkfish (next year’s Gold Cup favourite and likely to be horse of the week)
- Champion Chase – Chacun Pour Soi
- Marsh – Envoi Allen
For guidance I’ve done the following with Paddy Power, all non runner no bet:
4-folds x 5 (single bet – five selections – really a “5-fold”) (£5 – return £97.51)
Chacun Pour Soi
Fixed accumulator (5 selected at fixed prices) (£2 – return £79.52) (i.e. bets accumulate from one to the next)
Chacun Pour Soi
The 31 bets at £2 each are:
- 1. 5 Singles
- 2. 10 Doubles
- 3. 10 Trebles
- 4. 5 Fourfold Accumulators
- 5. 1 Fivefold Accumulator
This one costs £62 at £2 per line with a potential return of £575.76 but lots of lower returns if not all of them come in. The selections are the same.
I will take a look at the non-championship race bets when we know the declarations but, for me, Cheltenham is all about the horses that are comfortably the best in their categories. Do I think that they will all win? – probably not – but the Lucky 31 provides a bit of value if you take it now.