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my home on the web

Cheltenham Showcase October 21-22 and the new PM

Friday

13:35 Conditional Jockeys’ Hurdle 2m 87y Class 3

Soul Icon* on a five timer albeit in minor races is good value at 7/2.

14:10 Novices’ Chase 2m Class 2

Aucunrisque** was one of my horses to follow last season and should be nicely primed for this at 100/30.

14:45 Novices’ Hurdle 2m 4f Class 2

She Is Electric is seriously considered but Champion Bumper eighth, Music Drive** (9/4) should win this for Gordon Elliott.

15:20 Handicap Chase 2m 4f Class 3

Pull Again Green is a promising prospect on his chase debut but I prefer Emma Lavelle’s Hang In There** at 7/2, another on a potential five timer.

15:55 Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f Class 3

This is trappy but I think that Francky Du Berlais* (10/1) is overpriced.

16:30 Amateurs’ Handicap Chase 3m 1f Class 3

A complete lottery with no outstanding amateur jockeys. Having said that, I’m drawn to the favourite, Powerful Position* (9/2) and Marracudja (not the force of old) at 33/1 for a first four place.

17:05 Maiden Hurdle 2m 1/2f Class 3

Unbeaten Twinjets*** (2/1) should win this. A very promising horse.

Saturday

13:30 Novices’ Hurdle 3m Class 2

Saint Palais*** is outstanding value at 4/1 third favourite. One of those early season runners who will go on to flower during the season.

14:05 Handicap Chase 3m 1f Class 2

I have no idea why The Hollow Ginge is favourite so, in my view, it’s a distorted market which is great. I like Tullybeg** at 6/1 for Gordon Elliott (although check the declaration for the 3.20 on Friday). If he runs on Friday then I’ll switch to Coeur Serein* (10/1) for Jonjo and Jonjo.

14:40 Hurdle 2m Class 2

This is a perfect new season debut for shortening evens favourite Pied Piper*** to start a very promising season.

15:15 Handicap Chase 2m Class 2

This is an intriguing race which could well identify a small yard with a serious horse for the season. That trainer could be Laura Morgan (https://www.lauramorganracing.co.uk/) who is chasing a six timer with current favourite Clear The Runway** (3/1). Admittedly, the wins have come at minor courses but the last was a Class 2 after a Class 3 and the trainer’s season form is 21 winners from 96 runners with 22 placed.

15:50 Handicap Hurdle 3m Class 2

This is another conundrum. My instant selection was Botox Has (6/1f) for Gary Moore but then I noticed the last four wins for Salvador Ziggy 15/2 (Gordon Elliott), the good words for An Taillur (9/1) (one of my horses to follow) and the 11113 form for Gordon Elliott’s Lieutenant Highway. After reflection (but with no great confidence) I’m going for An Taillur* after a decent second at Cartmel and a win at Haydock at the back end of last season.

16:25 Novices’ Chase 3m Class 2

No odds available for this one yet, presumably because Ash Tree Meadow is declared for the 2.10 on Friday. In a reformed market I would go for Henry De Bromhead’s recent winner Life In The Park, (on a four timer) albeit without Rachael Blackmore (injured after a schooling fall).

17:00 Bumper 2m Class 2

Loads of good prospects and, of those that have run previously, the majority won! Good luck and watch the market.

New Prime Minister

Oh I could go on at length in an intro about what nonsense this is but, instead, I’ll confine myself to the market. We need a general election, obviously, but our parliamentary system doesn’t permit it at the moment.

Current odds are taken from Paddy Power Politics.

Rishi Sunak

The 4/5 favourite. He’s the technocrat choice, in the same vein as Mario Draghi (about to be succeeded by neo-fascist Georgia Meloni as Italian prime minister unless Putin mate Berlusconi brings her down in about the same timescale as Truss). Popular with the financial markets and a perfect match for Jeremy Hunt as his mouthpiece Chancellor. However, he’s reviled by the hard right ERG and too divisive. If “elected” he won’t command a parliamentary majority and will fall as soon as there is a meaningful vote on the economy.

Boris Johnson

I’m far from convinced that he’ll stand. BUT. Two hours ago he was 14/1 and now he’s 9/4 second favourite. He’s won every electoral competition that he’s run for and the Conservative members love him. If he passes the 100 MPs’ threshold on Monday and it goes to the membership with their online votes (if they know how to do that) he’ll win. That could be short lived when the Privileges Committee inevitably finds that he misled Parliament.

Penny Mordaunt

She is the betting selection at 9/2. She’s the only one with any propect of uniting the Conservative Party and did her case a power of good when standing in for Truss when answering an urgent question earlier this week. Her biggest challenge is getting 100 Tory MP supporters by Monday. If she does, she wins.

Others

For entertainment value, other odds include:

  • Michael Gove (80/1)
  • Priti Patel (100/1)
  • Jacob Rees-Mogg (100/1)
  • Sue-Ellen (named after the Dallas character) Braverman (100/1)
  • Esther McVey (yes, really) (100/1)
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3 Comments

  1. Martin Malone

    For clarification I think that Boris Johnson, if he stands, will get about 85 votes from the MPs and Penny Mordaunt will therefore win

  2. Martin Malone

    God help us:
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1583203110922883073

  3. Martin Malone

    Lettuce pray (for an election):
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfiovWmWIBs_g5c?format=jpg&name=large

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