The Grand National meeting has just got better and better over the last few years and this glut of Grade 1 races plus three outings over the National fences including, of course, the most watched horse race in the world, is an absolute treat.
As ever, we start with the ground. It’s been very windy and rainy over the last few days. Courtesy of Turftrax, the latest available readings on Wednesday afternoon are 6.0 Chase, 5.9 Hurdle and 4.8 National. For those unfamiliar with going stick readings these equate to good, good to soft on the chase/hurdle courses but, if it stays the same, this would be the softest ground for the National since 2018.
Thursday
13:45 Manifesto Novices’ Chase Grade 1 2m3 1/2f
Banbridge (6/4) missed Cheltenham, apparently but rather oddly on account of the ground. Was second to El Fabiolo in the Irish Arkle. I don’t think that he’s top notch.
Stage Star (7/4) is on a four-timer, having last won the Turners at the Cheltenham Festival, turning over the ill-fated Mighty Potter. I think that he will be even more suited to Aintree and is my selection.
Saint Roi (7/2) is a nearly horse, having been a valiant third behind El Fabiolo and Jonbon in the Arkle. Could well benefit from being upped in trip.
Selection: Exacta Stage Star 1 – Saint Roi 2
14:20 4-y-o Hurdle Grade 1 2m1f
Zenta (11/8f) was third in the Triumph (behind Lossiemouth and Gala Marceau) after two wins. Understandable favourite (and way ahead on Timeform ratings) but I’m looking elsewhere for a bit of value.
Bo Zenith (5/1) was much hyped but flopped when 3rd of 4 in a modest Class 3 at Sandown in January (went off at 4/11f). He followed with wins in a Class 2 and Class 3 at Haydock and Stratford against nothing special and I think that this is a tall order.
My selection is Nusret (5/1) for Joseph O’Brien. The double green of Munir/Souede are having a fantastic season, having obviously bought very well in the last few years (e.g. El Fabiolo). Ground and course should be ideal for this winner of the Adonis last time out at Kempton, beating Scriptwriter among others.
Selection: Nusret
14:55 Aintree Bowl Grade 1 3m1f
The big news in this race is that Bravemansgame has been ruled out because of an ownership issue, following an intervention by the Financial Conduct Authority. Co-owner John Dance owns Wealthtek which trades as Vertem Asset Management (as in the Vertem Futurity which is one of the top 2-y-o races of the season). The Racing Post has reported that the forced withdrawal of the horse follows a court order, with the company in special administration.
That leaves four serious contenders from the five remaining runners.
Shishkin (2/1f) is one of the best chasers of the last few years but has run a few stinkers. He’s on a mission to prove himself over longer distances after winning the Arkle in 2021. He won the Desert Orchid at Kempton and followed that up with a win in the Clarence House at Ascot, but was pulled up in the 2022 Champion Chase. He was third in the Tingle Creek last December and was then imperious over 2m5f in the Ascot Chase. However, he was a never threatening second to a resurgent Envoi Allen in the Ryanair and that run couldn’t fill you with confidence. This is a further extension in distance and I’m not convinced that he’s the same horse that he was a couple of seasons ago.
A Plus Tard (9/4) is a very appealing option after his excellent return to form in the Gold Cup (until badly hampered) and having been one of the best winners of the blue riband in recent years in 2022. There’s every reason to believe that the flop in the Betfair Chase last November was a one off and, if you disregard that, he could well benefit from the last outing and win this easily.
Ahoy Senor (5/2) won really well here last year (in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase) and there’s a good case to be made for both ground and course leading to a repeat. He’s the baddie in the Gold Cup, having led well before falling, bringing down Sounds Russian and badly hampering A Plus Tard. He’s a good old-fashioned chaser and I may be going over a cliff with him but I think that he’s still not yet shown his best, if he can only put in a clear round.
Conflated (6/1) has won Grade 1s and was a creditable third in the Gold Cup but I see him at best placed in this.
Selection: Yes, I know, but I’m going with Ahoy Senor again.
15:30 Aintree Hurdle Grade 1 2m4f
Time to watch probably the best National Hunt horse of recent years. Constitution Hill (1/9f) is on course to be one of the highest rated jumps horses ever and the price (16/1 bar) is absolutely right. It will be fascinating to see if he goes chasing next season and there is even talk of him running in the Ascot Gold Cup. We are being treated by seeing him here.
Selection: No bet, just watch and enjoy.
16:05 Foxhunters’ Chase 2m5f
The first race over the National fences, this is another one just to watch for me. The favourite, Winged Leader (7/2f) has excellent credentials with all the right connections and form. Latenightpass (5/1) won this last year and Famous Clermont is another to consider.
Selection: Winged Leader
16:40 Red Rum Chase Class 1 1m7 1/2f
This is a bit of a lottery which could well throw up a long odds winner. Favourite Douglas Talking (3/1) is progressive but I might have a few quid on Third Time Lucki (5/1) and Mackenberg (20/1) for Donald McCain.
Selections: Third Time Lucki and Mackenberg (e/w)
17:15 Mares’ Bumper Grade 2 2m1f
As ever, my advice is to watch the market and unnamed favourite is a sensible option. Understandably, there’s very little to go on. The top two in the market make most appeal. Seeyouinmydreams (11/4f) was bought for 235,000 guineas following a point to point win in Ireland and won easily for Paul Nicholls on her rules debut. Jolie Coeur Allen (4/1) is even harder to fathom, having come second on her only outing in a bumper at Fontainebleau, but having been bought for J P McManus and placed with Willie Mullins. I’m currently inclined towards the latter but I’ll wait to see them in the preliminaries before making my decision.
Friday
Well, there’s no point in denying it; Friday is a pale shadow of the preceding day’s card. Nonetheless, we have four Grade 1s plus the professional jockeys over the National fences and, in the background, Ladies’ Day and no doubt a few developing stories about the National.
13:45 Mildmay Novices’ Chase Grade 1 3m1f
I don’t see any reason to look beyond Gerri Colombe (4/5f) in this. Won his first seven races under Rules and was only beaten by a short head in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham, beating Bronn who was third. I Am Maximus was fourth and subsequently won the Irish National last Monday.
Selection: Gerri Colombe
14:20 Handicap Hurdle Class 1 2m4f
Camprond (11/2f) is an in and out horse returning after possibly his best performance when third in the Coral Cup. However, this is the sort of race that can produce a longer odds winner (4/1, 22/1, 8/1, 20/1, 10/1 in the last five years) and I’m with Sonigino (20/1) for Paul Nicholls/Harry Cobden/Sir Alex Ferguson and friends. He’s won three from four following wind surgery and was considered a top prospect who still has the potential for significant improvement.
Selection: Sonigino (e/w)
14:55 Top Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 2m 1/2f
Inthepocket (4/1) cost £290k for J McManus and was fourth in the Supreme. He’s comfortably Timeform top rated (164). Found A Fifty (7/2f) (156p) doesn’t deserve his position at the head of the market based on his form to date.
I’m more interested in the mare Luccia (4/1) with her 7lb allowance and eye-catching win at Exeter before being too keen in the Dawn Run at the Festival.
Tahmuras (12/1) flopped in the Supreme but was an impressive winner of the Tolworth when still green. Could build well on that.
Selection: Luccia
15:30 Melling Chase Grade 1 2m 4f
I was a fan of Pic D’Orhy (2/1f) as soon as he moved from Guillaume Macaire to Paul Nicholls in 2019. He’s taken his time. but notable wins include the Betfair Hurdle in 2020, the Noel Novices’ Chase at Newbury in 2021, the Pendil at Kempton in 2022, the Peterborough Chase last December, the Silviniaco Conti Chase in January, before his second behind Shishkin in the Ascot Chase in February. I’m all over him to bag his first Grade 1 here. Fakir D’Oudairies was third to him in the Ascot Chase and is in and out whereas my selection has the perfect profile to win this and progress further.
Selection: Pic D’Orhy
16:05 Topham Chase 2m5f
It’s 7/1 the field for the second race over the National fences. Willie Mullins has the first four in the weights with Haut En Couleurs, Burrows Saint, Ciel De Neige and Fan De Blues. I’m with the next in the weights, Final Orders (8/1), who I backed in the Grand Annual at the Festival when on a six-timer and was fifth.
Favourite Ashtown Lad (5/1) won the Becher Chase, beating Gesskille (15/2) and the distance is a big plus for the former, who has been laid out for this. However, he was taken out very wide in the race and may not benefit from a large and crowded field.
Haut En Couleurs (9/1) is probably the best horse in the race (5th in the Plate at the Festival ahead of Il Ridoto) but much will depend on how he takes to the fences.
Quel Destin (20/1) was destined to be a top performer and I’ve followed him for years. He’s very gutsy and I fancy him for a place.
Selections: Final Orders (win); Quel Destin (place)
16:40 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 3m 1/2f
This is an easy Grade 1 to win. I’m a bit confused because I’d heard that current favourite Stay Away Fay (5/2f) was going to Punchestown. If he runs here, he’s entitled to follow up after winning the Albert Bartlett. It’s a concern that it was a tough and probably draining race.
The only main opposition in my view is second favourite Absolute Notions (100/30), a very impressive second to Good Land in the Nathaniel Lacy at the Dublin Racing Festival, who missed the Festival and could be well primed for this.
Selection: Absolute Notions
17:15 Conditionals and Amateurs Handicap Hurdle 2m 1/2f
The market isn’t up for this one yet so I’ll wait and see. Go Dante is the 15/2 forecast favourite and I might have a look at Washington (forecast 12/1).
Good luck!