my home on the web

Author: Martin Malone (Page 1 of 29)

Cheltenham 2023 – Thursday and Friday

It’s been an excellent first two days of the Festival, with Tuesday a particular standout. We’ve had a few impressive winners which makes a pleasing change! The ground was taking a turn for the worse but we are on the new course for Thursday and Friday and the going forecast is soft, good to soft in places (5.9) with 5-7mm of rain due on Wednesday night with a further 3-5mm during Thursday.

Thursday

13:30 Turners Novices’ Chase

By a process of elimination, I can’t oppose 5/6 favourite Mighty Potter who is 7lb ahead of the field on Timeform ratings. Appreciate It is a 9-y-o and may benefit from the longer trip, having been third to El Fabiolo in the Irish Arkle. The ground is unlikely to suit Banbridge.

14:10 Pertemps Final

I was going to pass on this race because I don’t have any strong views about it. For the sake of making a selection and for the placepot, I’ll choose current second favourite, Maxxum (5/1).

14:50 Ryanair

Shishkin (10/11) clearly relished the move up in trip and was back to his best when winning the Ascot Chase last month. A confident selection.

15:30 Stayers’ Hurdle

Teahupoo (11/4) has, in my view, rightly displaced Blazing Khal as favourite. The latter has had a fitness doubt right the way up to this and was touch and go to make it. Flooring Porter has won this for the last two years with his front-running performances but has both the ground and arguably improved opposition against him to make it a three-timer.

16:10 The Plate

Haut En Couleurs (6/1) is respected but I’m siding with Il Ridoto (8/1) to get Paul Nicholls off the mark at this year’s Festival, in what is a typically open renewal.

16:50 Mares’ Novices Hurdle

Luccia (6/4) is unbeaten (two bumpers and two hurdles) and is the deserving favourite and my selection. Halka Du Tabert is an each way option at 10/1.

17:30 Kim Muir

Stumptown (9/2) is yet another favourite who is hard to oppose. A very willing horse and a decent jumper who will relish the ground and trip. Anightinlambourn is an appealling each way option at 20/1.

Friday

13:30 Triumph Hurdle

Willie Mullins has the first four in the market and it’s 25/1 bar them. Current favourite Lossiemouth (13/8) appears to be the preferred one in the yard and this is backed up with Paul Townend’s booking to ride him. She was beaten by Gala Marceau (9/2) in the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival, but was severely hampered three out so that can be forgiven. The places were reversed in the Knight Frank Hurdle at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival. I’ve been flip flopping between Lossiemouth and Blood Destiny (2/1). I was very taken with the latter’s two easy wins this season, on soft and heavy, and Blood Destiny is the one that I’ve finally plumped for.

14:10 County Hurdle

This is an excellent renewal and, as the market demonstrates, strong cases can be made for many of them. Sharjah (8/1) has twice finished second in the Champion Hurdle but, as a 10-y-o, doesn’t seem to be quite the force of old. However, this is a significant drop in class and only his second handicap so he has to be respected, albeit with top weight. I’ve followed Aucunrisque (12/1) throughout his career and he has excellent form this season, topping it with a gutsy win in the Betfair Hurdle, beating current favourite Filey Bay (4/1). That was an ideal prep but, given the strength of this race, a further step up is required.

In the end I’m back with Willie Mullins again with Hunters Yarn (13/2), again the choice of Paul Townend, and with the prospect of maintaining the highly impressive record of owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede at this year’s Festival.

14:50 Albert Bartlett Hurdle

Corbetts Cross (4/1jf) is a highly progressive horse, having transferred trainer to the very shrewd Emmett Mullins in January and having been bought by J P McManus, presumably with this is mind. He’s chasing a four-timer and should be well-suited by both the ground and the distance.

15:30 Gold Cup

Galopin Des Champs (7/4f) won the Martin Pipe in 2021 and would certainly have won the Turners last year when uncharacteristically falling at the last. Since then he’s been untroubled, winning at 2/11, 2/9 and 30/100 and is the most likely winner. However, I still have my doubts, with this his longest trip yet on testing ground.

A Plus Tard (6/1) was a mightily impressive winner of last year’s Gold Cup and looked well placed to repeat the performance until putting in a shocker when pulled up in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last November. He’s not run since so this is a very tall order. However, trainer Henry de Bromhead remains confident and he’s having another good week at the Festival. He’ll either be fighting out the finish or come nowhere and the risk of the latter is too great for me.

Bravemansgame (6/1) was an impressive winner of the King George on good to soft, beating Royale Pagaille, Frodon, Eldorado Allen and Ahoy Senor. Paul Nicholls is insistent that he’s his best chance of a Gold Cup winner in recent years but he seemed flat out to me to win at 3m at Kempton and we know from numerous examples that this is a world apart from 3m 2 1/2f at Cheltenham, particularly on soft / good to soft ground. He was a weakening third over 2m 5f in the Ballymore at the Festival in 2021 on good to soft ground and he’s not for me.

Noble Yeats (7/1) is last year’s Grand National winner and made an inauspicious return this season when pulled up at Auteuil. He’s made progress since then but his third to Ahoy Senor in the Cotswold Chase here in January isn’t good enough and surely the National is the main target.

Stattler (8/1) is commendably reliable and was second to Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup. He’s just below top level and unlikely to reverse the form with the favourite.

Conflated (12/1) is an in and out horse who has had his moments but surely can’t take this, not least because he’s unproven over the distance.

Protektorat (14/1) was third in this race last year and followed up with a win in the Betfair Chase. However he was a disappointing 4th in the Cotswold Chase.

Ahoy Senor (16/1) is a horse that I’ve followed through thick and thin and he finally put it all together with a very impressive win in the Cotswold Chase here in January. He needs to settle into a rhythm and we’ll know whether he’s a player after the first half dozen fences. The yard is in excellent form, highlighted by Corach Rambler’s repeat win in the Ultima on Tuesday. It’s probably heart ruling head but he’s my selection (each way).

16:10 (Fox)Hunters Chase

This is a specialist discipline and it oftens pays to follow trainers and jockeys with form in these races. Trainer David Christie is an undoubted specialist and could have had half a dozen in this. As it is, he has just one and that’s the favourite, Vaucelet (9/4) ridden by the prolific Barry O’Neill who is one of the most successful ever Irish point-to-point winners with a tally of over 600.

Billaway (15/2) won this last year and was runner-up in 2020 and 2021. However, he doesn’t seem to be the force of old this season.

16:50 Mares’ Chase

All eyes will be on favourite Allegorie De Vassy (6/5f) who is unbeaten in four after switching to Wille Mullins and Rich Ricci, having previously been campaigned in France. She’s hugely talented but has a tendency to swerve violently to her right on occasion when jumping, which will make for an interesting round here. Assuming she stays on her feet (she’s not fallen yet) she should win.

Impervious is another who brings top form to the race, on a four-timer, and should relish the ground.

17:30 Martin Pipe

The last two winners were Banbridge (12/1) and Galopin Des Champs (8/1) so this field as a lot to live up to. That tendency to produce an up and coming but unheralded winner makes it a difficult one to fathom but I’m going to look more at some of the younger improvers rather those who are already exposed.

With that in mind it’s hard to look past current favourite Spanish Harlem (4/1) who seems to have all the right credentials. This is his handicap debut, carrying 11st 2lbs, and he’s a 5-y-o from the top yard with an excellent conditional jockey. I can see him being a much shorter price at the off to round off the Festival with a strongly backed winner.

Good luck!

Cheltenham 2023 Tuesday and Wednesday

The going is currently soft (5.7) on the old course which is in use for the first two days. It’s expected to be sticky and dead under the top covering so you need horses that have form on soft. The strange weather over the winter has also affected the grass. It was 6.3 on the equivalent day in 2022.

Tuesday

13:30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Facile Vega 5/2f

Can you forgive the last run at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF)? I’m not sure that I can.

Il Etait Temps (9/2)

Won really well in the same race and the ground will suit. Only 1lb behind Facile Vega on Timeform ratings and taken to repeat the win.

Marine Nationale (5/1)

Much heralded but hasn’t run for 100 days which is a big negative for me. Won the Royal Bond but hasn’t been tested at the same level as some of the others.

Of them, High Definition (18/1) was a good flat horse but will surely be unsuited by the ground and there are questions over jumping. Rare Edition is an each way possible at 25/1 (look for extra places with the bookies).

Selections It Etait Temps / Rare Edition (e/w)

14:10 Arkle

El Fabiolo (6/4f)

Second to Jonbon in an Aintree Grade 1 hurdle last season and has really impressed in his two chases this term. Timeform top rated.

Jonbon (7/4)

Only beaten once (by Constitution Hill in last year’s Supreme). Questions after last outing at Warwick and I think that El Fabiolo has the edge.

Dysart Dynamo (13/2)

Very fast (maybe too fast) and only one way of running – flat out. Has form on soft and heavy. Could build up a decent lead but surely the others will haul him in.

Selection El Fabiolo

14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase

6/1 the field is about right and this could go to a longer odds horse that relishes the test and the ground. Last year’s winner Corach Rambler is the favourite and carries only 6lb more. However, I’m picking two at 18/1, Fantastikas and The Big Breakaway.

15:30 Champion Hurdle

Constitution Hill (4/11) has everything and is shaping to be one of the best hurdlers of recent years. Timeform rated 10lb ahead of the field and could easily justify more. There is even talk of him running in the Ascot Gold Cup if all goes well here.

State Man (100/30) would be the likely winner in a normal year but has come up against a monster in the favourite.

Jason The Militant is worth a look at 150/1 e/w (first two only).

My selection is Constitution Hill by 10 lengths or more and State Man to finish second at 3/1 (Paddy Power).

16:10 Mares’ Hurdle

This is a great race. I’m against last year’s winner and current favourite Marie’s Rock (9/4), as well as Honeysuckle and Epatante, both of whom are past their best. Brandy Love is respected but my selection is last year’s Mares’ Novices’ winner, the ever progressive Love Envoi, at an appealling 9/1.

16:50 Boodles Handicap Hurdle

Tekao is too short for me at 7/2. Bad is an intriguing entry, making his UK debut, having only ever run (on good to soft and heavy) at Bordeaux Le Bouscat. Sir Allen could improve, but I’m going for an e/w outsider Fils De Roi at 50/1.

17:30 National Hunt Chase

Gaillard Du Mesnil (Evens) looks head and shoulders above the opposition. Third in last year’s Brown Advisory and Irish Grand National, decent placed performances behind Mighty Potter and a Grade 1 winner last Christmas, he should arguably be a much shorter price.

Wednesday

13:30 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

My selection of the week is Impaire Et Passe (7/4). Rightly deserving of a “big P” in Timeform’s ratings (163), this one was also chosen by David Casey as his pick of the week in this morning’s Road To Cheltenham.

Hermes Allen was a good winner of an above average Challow Hurdle but that route to Cheltenham does not have a good track record.

Gaelic Warrior was just pipped in last year’s Fred Winter but he has a tendency to jump right. Won a Grade B hurdle last month but the other races this season were at 1/14 and 1/12 at Clonmel and Tramore and therefore pretty meaningless.

14:10 Brown Advisory Chase

Many tipsters won’t hear of defeat for 7/4f Gerri Colombe but I’m not so sure. Sir Gerhard is very inexperienced and put in a novicey performance in his only chase outing. However, he won the Champion Bumper two years ago and the Ballymore last season and that Cheltenham form has to be respected. The Real Whacker won the Dipper here on very similar ground on New Year’s Day and is my selection, ahead of Thyme Hill, who won the Kauto Star at Kempton at Christmas, albeit in a very slow time.

14:50 Coral Cup

As usual, this is a wide open race so I’m picking two, pretty much at random, HMS Seahorse (9/1) and Icare Allen (25/1).

15:30 Champion Chase

I see this as a pick’em between the pair that head the field, Edwardstone (6/4) and Energumene (7/4) and, just on balance, I prefer the former.

16:10 Cross Country

Franco De Port is reportedly being aimed at the Grand Steeplechase De Paris, with this as a stepping stone. Davy Russell appears to have chosen Galvin ahead of Delta Work and it’s 18/1 bar the top three. This is Galvin’s first attempt in this discipline, having come fourth in last year’s Gold Cup, and think that Davy is on the right one.

16:50 Grand Annual

The last four winners of this race were priced at 28/1, 14/1, 7/2 and 66/1. It will be fast and furious. Final Orders is a five times’ winner over fences and seems ideally suited to this type of race. After his last win I decided that I would follow him wherever he truned up and this seems just fine to me at 6/1.

17:30 Champion Bumper

The received wisdom is that when Willie Mullins throws a number of darts at this, there is no anticipated winner. I have no idea what will win and, I suspect, nor do they. The current favourite, A Dream To Share, is not a WP horse but I suspect that won’t be the case at the off. As ever, it is worth keeping a close eye on market movers. Based on races I’ve watched I’ll go for It’s For Me (5/1) and Fun Fun Fun (9/1), both sporting the double greens of Simon Munir and Isaac Suede, with the latter benefiting from the significant mares’ allowance of 7lb.

Good luck!

Cheltenham Showcase October 21-22 and the new PM

Friday

13:35 Conditional Jockeys’ Hurdle 2m 87y Class 3

Soul Icon* on a five timer albeit in minor races is good value at 7/2.

14:10 Novices’ Chase 2m Class 2

Aucunrisque** was one of my horses to follow last season and should be nicely primed for this at 100/30.

14:45 Novices’ Hurdle 2m 4f Class 2

She Is Electric is seriously considered but Champion Bumper eighth, Music Drive** (9/4) should win this for Gordon Elliott.

15:20 Handicap Chase 2m 4f Class 3

Pull Again Green is a promising prospect on his chase debut but I prefer Emma Lavelle’s Hang In There** at 7/2, another on a potential five timer.

15:55 Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f Class 3

This is trappy but I think that Francky Du Berlais* (10/1) is overpriced.

16:30 Amateurs’ Handicap Chase 3m 1f Class 3

A complete lottery with no outstanding amateur jockeys. Having said that, I’m drawn to the favourite, Powerful Position* (9/2) and Marracudja (not the force of old) at 33/1 for a first four place.

17:05 Maiden Hurdle 2m 1/2f Class 3

Unbeaten Twinjets*** (2/1) should win this. A very promising horse.

Saturday

13:30 Novices’ Hurdle 3m Class 2

Saint Palais*** is outstanding value at 4/1 third favourite. One of those early season runners who will go on to flower during the season.

14:05 Handicap Chase 3m 1f Class 2

I have no idea why The Hollow Ginge is favourite so, in my view, it’s a distorted market which is great. I like Tullybeg** at 6/1 for Gordon Elliott (although check the declaration for the 3.20 on Friday). If he runs on Friday then I’ll switch to Coeur Serein* (10/1) for Jonjo and Jonjo.

14:40 Hurdle 2m Class 2

This is a perfect new season debut for shortening evens favourite Pied Piper*** to start a very promising season.

15:15 Handicap Chase 2m Class 2

This is an intriguing race which could well identify a small yard with a serious horse for the season. That trainer could be Laura Morgan (https://www.lauramorganracing.co.uk/) who is chasing a six timer with current favourite Clear The Runway** (3/1). Admittedly, the wins have come at minor courses but the last was a Class 2 after a Class 3 and the trainer’s season form is 21 winners from 96 runners with 22 placed.

15:50 Handicap Hurdle 3m Class 2

This is another conundrum. My instant selection was Botox Has (6/1f) for Gary Moore but then I noticed the last four wins for Salvador Ziggy 15/2 (Gordon Elliott), the good words for An Taillur (9/1) (one of my horses to follow) and the 11113 form for Gordon Elliott’s Lieutenant Highway. After reflection (but with no great confidence) I’m going for An Taillur* after a decent second at Cartmel and a win at Haydock at the back end of last season.

16:25 Novices’ Chase 3m Class 2

No odds available for this one yet, presumably because Ash Tree Meadow is declared for the 2.10 on Friday. In a reformed market I would go for Henry De Bromhead’s recent winner Life In The Park, (on a four timer) albeit without Rachael Blackmore (injured after a schooling fall).

17:00 Bumper 2m Class 2

Loads of good prospects and, of those that have run previously, the majority won! Good luck and watch the market.

New Prime Minister

Oh I could go on at length in an intro about what nonsense this is but, instead, I’ll confine myself to the market. We need a general election, obviously, but our parliamentary system doesn’t permit it at the moment.

Current odds are taken from Paddy Power Politics.

Rishi Sunak

The 4/5 favourite. He’s the technocrat choice, in the same vein as Mario Draghi (about to be succeeded by neo-fascist Georgia Meloni as Italian prime minister unless Putin mate Berlusconi brings her down in about the same timescale as Truss). Popular with the financial markets and a perfect match for Jeremy Hunt as his mouthpiece Chancellor. However, he’s reviled by the hard right ERG and too divisive. If “elected” he won’t command a parliamentary majority and will fall as soon as there is a meaningful vote on the economy.

Boris Johnson

I’m far from convinced that he’ll stand. BUT. Two hours ago he was 14/1 and now he’s 9/4 second favourite. He’s won every electoral competition that he’s run for and the Conservative members love him. If he passes the 100 MPs’ threshold on Monday and it goes to the membership with their online votes (if they know how to do that) he’ll win. That could be short lived when the Privileges Committee inevitably finds that he misled Parliament.

Penny Mordaunt

She is the betting selection at 9/2. She’s the only one with any propect of uniting the Conservative Party and did her case a power of good when standing in for Truss when answering an urgent question earlier this week. Her biggest challenge is getting 100 Tory MP supporters by Monday. If she does, she wins.

Others

For entertainment value, other odds include:

  • Michael Gove (80/1)
  • Priti Patel (100/1)
  • Jacob Rees-Mogg (100/1)
  • Sue-Ellen (named after the Dallas character) Braverman (100/1)
  • Esther McVey (yes, really) (100/1)

Aintree 2022 – Friday

Here are my selections for Friday at Aintree

13:45 Handicap Hurdle – Grade 3

21 Mackenberg (28/1 e/w)

14:20 Top Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 1

3 El Fabiolo (4/1); Aucunrisque (12/1 e/w)

14:55 Mildmay Novices’ Chase – Grade 1

4 L’homme Presse (5/4 jf)

15:30 Marsh (Melling) Chase – Grade 1

4 Fakir D’oudairies (5/4)

16:05 Topham Chase (National Course) – Grade 3

1 Royal Rendezvous (10/1); 7 Killer Clown (18/1 e/w)

16:40 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 1

8 Gelino Bello (9/2)

17:15 Conditional Jockeys’ Hurdle – Class 2

9 Washington (11/2)

Good luck!

Cheltenham 2022 – Friday

It was a mixed day yesterday with Galopin all but winning the first and now favourite for next year’s Gold Cup. Alaphilippe ran really well in the Pertemps and Allaho was again dominant in the Ryanair. Paisley Park was out with the washing and did amazingly well to come in third in the Stayers’ Hurdle and my best result of the day was Love Envoi winning the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle.

I think that it’s going to be a favourites’ day in the early races today so I’ve added a few selections at longer odds in the hope of finding some value.

13:30 Triumph Hurdle

Vauban (15/8f); Il Etait Temps (11/1 e/w)

14:10 County Hurdle

State Man (7/2f); I Like To Move It (10/1 e/w)

14:50 Albert Bartlett

Hillcrest (9/4f); Minella Cocooner (9/1 e/w)

15:30 Gold Cup

Protektorat (11/1)

16:10 Hunters’ Chase

Pont Aven (9/1)

16:50 Mares’ Chase

Elimay (5/2)

17:30 Martin Pipe

Adamantly Chosen (6/1)

Good luck!

Cheltenham 2022 – Thursday

A much better day on Wednesday with wins for Sir Gerhard, L’homme Presse and Energumene and a valiant valedictory second for Tiger Roll in the Cross Country.

Just the selections today, confirming those mentioned on Monday, but several now at much shorter odds.

13:30 Turners Novices’ Chase

Galopin Des Champs (5/6 from 11/10)

14:10 Pertemps Final

Alaphilippe (6/1)

14:50 Ryanair Chase

Allaho (4/6 from 4/7) nap

15:30 Stayers’ Hurdle

Paisley Park (17/2 from 7/1)

16:10 Plate

The Glancing Queen (7/2 from 7/1)

16:50 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle

Dinoblue (7/4 from 9/4); Love Envoi (13/2 from 12/1)

17:30 Kim Muir

School Boy Hours (5/1 from 7/1)

Good luck!

Cheltenham 2022 – Wednesday

Wipeout! No winners at all on Tuesday but a great day’s racing nonetheless.

I liked this contribution:

Constitution Hill was a mighty winner of the Supreme and no doubt the performance of the day with a 22l record breaking defeat of a very good field. Honeysuckle proved that she really is a hurdling great and those two outstanding performances were my takeaways from the day. Onwards!

13:30 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

Dysart Dynamo wasn’t going to win the Supreme when falling but I think that Sir Gerhard (4/6) will get Willie Mullins off to a winning start on Wednesday, having closed the first day with his first win of the meeting with Stattler in the National Hunt Chase.

Selection: Sir Gerhard (4/6)

14:10 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase

I would love to see Ahoy Senor (6/1) follow up on Coragh Rambler’s win for Lucinda Russell and Derek Fox in the Ultima. Bravemansgame (11/4) is probably the best horse in the race but I’m not sure that Cheltenham will play to his strengths. On balance, and marginally, I’ve gone for L’homme Presse (a short enough 7/2) who is unbeaten this season and has course form.

Selection: L’homme Presse (7/2)

14:50 Coral Cup

It’s a wide open renewal as usual so I’ll stick with the two previously selected, who are now leading the market, in the shape of Saint Felicien (6/1) and Camprond (17/2), with a preference for the former.

Selection: Saint Felicien (6/1)

15:30 Champion Chase

With some trepidation after Nicky Henderson’s double on the first day and mainly for value I’m sticking with my selection, Energumene (7/2), to beat hot favourite Shishkin (10/11) and reverse the form after the Ascot race and with conditions suiting the favourite. A contrary view in the face of the available evidence but, why not, given that they are both very, very good horses and could maintain the rivalry for some time to come?

Selection: Energumene (7/2)

16:10 Cross Country

Well, in all likelihood, he’ll win it easily or bomb out. This is almost certainly Tiger Roll’s swansong and I’ll stick with him, notwithstanding his drift in the market.

Selection: Tiger Roll (7/4)

16:50 Grand Annual Chase

As previously posted, my shortlist was Embittered (11/1), Frero Banbou (14/1) and A Wave Of The Sea (25/1) and, without a great deal of reflection, I’ve opted for Frero Banbou for Venetia Williams and Charlie Deutsch.

Selection: Frero Banbou (14/1)

17:30 Champion Bumper

The market for this has settled down a bit after the euphoria about Facile Vega (6/4). I think that there’s probably little between him and American Mike (11/4) so, primarily based on the prices, I’m sticking with the latter.

Selection: American Mike (11/4)

After the first day you could reasonably treat this is a list of ones to exclude but I remain optimistic for a profitable day. Good luck!

Cheltenham 2022: Tuesday

As usual in recent years, the going (on Sunday afternoon as I’m typing this) on the old course (used on Tuesday and Wednesday) is good to soft, soft in places. The Accuweather daily rain forecast is Monday 2%, Tuesday 25%, Wednesday 89%, Thursday 0%, Friday 0%.

Declarations were published on Sunday morning and there are no big surprises.

13:30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

As widely predicted, Sir Gerhard is routed to the Ballymore on Wednesday. There are five main players. Dysart Dynamo and Constitution Hill are current joint favourites at 9/4, Jonbon is 9/2, Kilcruit is 6/1 and Mighty Potter is 8/1.

Dysart Dynamo (164p) is unbeaten in four outings, two in bumpers and two over hurdles. He has form on soft, good to soft and heavy. He was mightily impressive last time out in the Moscow Flyer Hurdle at Punchestown on 16 January and looks like the most likely winner.

Constitution Hill (162P) is also unbeaten in two. He won the Grade 1 Tolworth on heavy ground at Sandown on 8 January (Shallwehaveonemore 4th). This is a very different challenge and there are question marks concerning the quality of his wins, albeit that they were visually impressive.

Jonbon (165p) is an expensive brother of Douvan and, like Dysart Dynamo, is unbeaten over four. All his form is on good to soft/soft. I suspect that this is a marking time season on the way to be an outstanding chaser.

Kilcruit (158p) was second to Sir Gerhard in last year’s Champion Bumper but his form this season has been not as good as many expected. Improved with a shorter distance and the application of a tongue strap last time out in a modest maiden hurdle, he would need to improve a lot to land this.

Mighty Potter (160p) was beaten by Statuaire and My Mate Mozzie in the Royal Bond, but redeemed himself with a far from fluent and novicey win in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival. He would need to improve considerably from both runs and may well do so but this is a very high quality renewal and I can’t have him.

Selection: Dysart Dynamo

14:10 Arkle Novices’ Chase

The top three in this are all exposed: Edwardstone (5/2), Blue Lord (4/1) and Riviere D’etel (7/2). The one open to significant improvement and my selection is Haut En Couleurs (7/1). He was third in last year’s Triumph Hurdle and the Punchestown Champion 4-y-o and made a winning start over fences in a Beginners’ Chase at Leopardstown in December. He fell early on in the Irish Arkle but, ironically, I really like his jumping style and his 172p Timeform rating is good enough for this.

Edwardstone (177) has done nothing wrong and could well run out as an easy winner but the 7/1 available for Haut En Couleurs is very tempting.

Selection: Haut En Couleurs

14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase

This is a very open race (currently 13/2 the field) and my idea of the winner is novice Does he Know (7/1). The presence of Frodon as top weight means that he carries 11st. He has good Cheltenham form and his best performance to date was last time out, winning the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot on 19 February.

It would be great to see Frodon (12/1) win this but it’s a tall order off top weight (with a margin) in a handicap.

My idea of a lively outsider is Our Power at 14/1, another progressive novice who could provide former jockey Sam Thomas with his best training achievement to date.

Selection: Does He Know

Outsider: Our Power

15:30 Champion Hurdle

The easy and obvious choice is defending champion Honeysuckle (4/7), looking to extend her unbeaten record to 15. She’ll probably do it but there’s no value in the price. There are question marks over what she’s beaten and she was not so impressive, albeit winning last time out in the Irish Champion Hurdle.

I think that Appreciate It is a very special horse. Second to the sadly sidelined Ferny Hollow in the 2020 Champion Bumper and a 24l winner of last year’s Supreme Hurdle, I don’t think that Honeysuckle has ever met one as good as this. Of course the racecourse absence of 364 days since then is a major concern but if he’s back to his best then, at 4/1, he’s a great value choice.

Selection: Appreciate It

16:10 Mares’ Hurdle

This is trappy and good cases can be made for several of the leading contenders. Telmesomethinggirl (3/1) is probably the right favourite. Stormy Ireland (5/1) lost her way and spent an unproductive spell with Paul Nicholls before returning to Willie Mullins where she has done much better, including winning the Grade 2 Relkeel at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Burning Victory (8/1) won the 2020 Triumph Hurdle and was second in the Cesarewitch, before seeing off Queens Brook (9/2) in a Grade 3 at Punchestown on heavy last month. However, Queens Brook was given a lot to do and was closing on the winner and, like many, I prefer her to reverse the form.

Selection: Queens Brook

16:50 Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle

This is an intriguing race and could perhaps produce one of the easiest winners of the week. It’s all about the handicap, the favourite, Gaelic Warrior (9/4), and the hype. This horse has never run in the UK or Ireland and has only ever run at Auteuil where his form is 633, last time in the relatively minor Rocking Chair Hurdle in June 2021. Owner Rich Ricci has confessed that he’s never even seen the horse but the reports are that he’s very, very good and has been mentioned as a nap of the meeting at several previews. He hasn’t got a lot to beat here (including a number who are most likely in it to give the owners a runner at the Festival) and I’m going to take a chance.

Selection: Gaelic Warrior

17:30 National Hunt Novices’ Chase

Although the distance has been reduced to 3m 6f, this still requires a tried and tested thorough stayer and a top amateur jockey. I am inclined against the top two in the market, Run Wild Fred (Jamie Codd – 2/1) and Stattler (Patrick Mullins – 9/4), so I’m going with 2021 Albert Bartlett winner Vanillier (Derek O’Connor – 4/1). His season has been unspectacular but I listened to an interview this morning with his trainer Gavin Cromwell who thinks that he’s got him right and I think that the extra distance will suit him down to the ground.

Selection: Vanillier

We don’t yet have the declarations for the remaining days and much depends on which horses end up in which races but I’ve set out below my current selections and intend to update them during the week.

Wednesday

13:30 Ballymore

Sir Gerhard (4/5)

14:10 Brown Advisory

L’homme Presse (4/1); Ahoy Senor (5/1)

14:50 Coral Cup

Camprond (8/1 from 18/1); Saint Felicien (8/1)

15:30 Champion Chase

Energumene (7/2)

16:10 Cross Country

Tiger Roll (5/4)

16:50 Grand Annual

Embittered (7/1); A Wave of the Sea (16/1); Frero Banbou (12/1)

17:30 Champion Bumper

American Mike (9/4)

Thursday

13:30 Turners Novices’ Chase

Galopin Des Champs (11/10)

14:10 Pertemps Final

Alaphilippe (6/1)

14:50 Ryanair Chase

Allaho (4/7) nap

15:30 Stayers’ Hurdle

Paisley Park (7/1)

16:10 Plate

The Glancing Queen (7/1)

16:50 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle

Dinoblue (9/4); Love Envoi (12/1)

17:30 Kim Muir

School Boy Hours (7/1)

Friday

13:30 Triumph Hurdle

Vauban (13/8) n.b.

14:10 County Hurdle

State Man (4/1)

14:50 Albert Bartlett

Minella Cocooner (7/1)

15:30 Gold Cup

Protektorat (8/1)

16:10 Hunters’ Chase

Pont Aven (8/1)

16:50 Mares’ Chase

Elimay (2/1)

17:30 Martin Pipe

Good Risk At All (7/1)

Good luck!!

Great racing this weekend

We have some great National Hunt racing to look forward to over the next few days with the declarations ensuring that this an even better weekend than usual.

This is as much a reminder for me as anything so here goes:

Friday

Wetherby

14:05 Ahoy Senior (10/11) (one of the best horses Lucinda Russell has had for a while)

15:15 Porticello (11/8) (Gary Moore top prospect); Too Friendly (100/30); Sacre Pierre (6/1)

15:50 Magic Saint (9/2); Good Boy Bobby (11/4)

16:25 Larch Hill (9/2)

Uttoxeter

14:48 Flic Ou Voyou (9/4) (chasing debut for Nicholls)

Down Royal

13:10 Hollow Games (1/4) (a Ballymore prospect for G Elliott)

13:45 Party Central (13/8) (another top prospect for Eliott)

14:20 Zanahiyr (4/9) (leading Cheltenham candidate last season and potentially more to come – really should win this)

16:05 Arahecan (is the RP nap at 10/1)

16:35 The Mediator (5/6) (unraced for G Elliott)

Saturday

Down Royal

13:05 Fil Dor (debut for G Elliott – watch the market)

13:40 Mighty Potter (yet another interesting debutant for Elliott)

14:15 Charli Parcs (20/1) (not expecting anything from him (now with Aidan Howard) but may improve on 5th last time out). Hearts Are Trumps (22/1) is another who has lost his way but might just run into a place.

14:50 I favour a fresh Frodon (9/2) over Gold Cup winner Minella Indo (evens) at this early stage in the season.

15:25 Envoi Allen (4/11) should win this easily.

Wetherby

13:20 Gericault Rouge (7/2) a likely improver

13:55 Molly Ollys Wishes (100/30) is a confident selection and could have an exciting season ahead.

14:20 Paisley Park (9/4); Thomas Darby (7/2); Master Tommytucker (5/1 and interesting over hurdles). Take your pick.

15:05 Cyrname (6/5) on a redemption mission; Shan Blue (5/1); Fusil Raffles (13/2) my selection

Ascot

14:10 Boothill (7/2) an unbeaten and potentially exciting prospect

14:45 Editeur Du Gite (100/30) won the Red Rum and was followed home by Sully D’oc AA (6/1). A forecast for a repeat?

15:20 Vinndication (3/1) one to watch

Sunday

We await the declarations but races of interest include:

Carlisle 14:00 Chantry House, Fiddlerontheroof, Sporting John

Cork 14:25 Beacon Edge, Bleu Berry, Diol Ker, Run Wild Fred

Cork 15:00 Eleazar Des Neiges, Agent Boru

Overall, we’ll know a lot more after the weekend but it’s worth bearing in mind that, in Ireland, the Down Royal meeting tends to be a benefit for Gordon Elliott, particularly for debutants or near-debutants and WP tends to avoid it. My most interesting candidates?

Ahoy Senior

Porticello

Flic Ou Voyou

Hollow Games

Frodon

Envoi Allen

Molly Ollys Wishes

Fusil Raffles

Boothill

Chantry House

What a treat in prospect! Just for fun, a 9 fold on the Friday and Saturday selections would deliver a 10,000/1 return. Yes, of course I’ve done it! Much better odds than the Lottery.

I’ve also done:

Ahoy Senior, Porticello, Flic Ou Voyou, Hollow Games, Frodon, Envoi Allen and Fusil Raffles accumulator at 679/1

Ahoy Senior, Porticello, Hollow Games, Frodon, Envoi Allen and Fusil Raffles accumulator at 226/1

Ahoy Senior, Porticello, Frodon and Envoi Allen as a Lucky 15 for a potential return of £117.49.

Let’s hope that the first two at Wetherby on Friday deliver.

Good luck!

Chepstow 8 October

The Chepstow October meeting is, for me, the proper start of new National Hunt season and this year’s renewal is perhaps one of the best yet.

13:00 Novices’ Hurdle 2m 11y

We get off to a great start with a Class 4 novices’ hurdle but featuring unbeaten Knappers Hill making his hurdles debut after an impressive win in the Aintree Grade 2 bumper. Unsurprisingly a 1/5 shot.

13:35 Novices’ Chase 2m 7 1/2f

A four runner Class 2 novices’ chase and another potential star, this time in the shape of Threeunderthrufive (6/4) who, as the Racing Post verdict says, “is a very exciting prospect for the season ahead”.

So, we have a winning double before race three (I love the early season).

14:10 Veterans’ Chase 2m 7 1/2f

Some great names here – Geordie Des Champs, Potters Corner, Vieux Lion Rouge, Double Shuffle and Dancing Shadow. Not a strong view here but I’m just inclined towards Geordie Des Champs (9/2) to make it a three timer after a break of 113 days.

14:45 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle 2m 3 1/2f

The first Grade 2 of the season and, generally, a good marker for what lies in store. It’s a Nicholls Henderson head to head on the face of it with Paso Doble and First Street but I’m going with Coeur Serein to make it four wins in a row at 5/1 for Jonjo O’Neill (senior and junior). I may also hazard a minor place bet on Hidden Heroics (14/1), a Fairyhouse point to point winner on his only previous outing, bought for £60,000 and could be anything.

15:20 Paul Ferguson’s Jumpers To Follow 4-y-o Hurdle 2m 11y

I don’t normally add the sponsor’s name to these previews but had to give credit to the excellent Paul Ferguson who many of us know from various Liverpool haunts (generally Dominic and Fiona’s). It’s great to see him recognised at this prelude meeting. That said, this is appropriately a very difficult race and I’m taking a chance with Hell Red (100/30), a promising horse who may have run with a lot more in store when 9th in the Boodles’ at the Cheltenham Festival and subsequently won well in a Class 4 at Newton Abbot last April.

15:55 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle 2m 3 1/2f

Nina The Terrier (13/8) should win this with something in hand.

16:25 Conditionals’ Handicap Chase 2m 7 1/2f

A total lottery. Best avoided.

Good luck!

« Older posts

© 2024 Martin Malone

Theme by Anders NorenUp ↑

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 119, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126, 127, 128, 129, 130, 131, 132, 133, 134, 135, 136, 137, 138, 139, 140, 141, 142, 143, 144, 145, 146, 147, 148, 149, 150, 151, 152, 153, 154, 155, 156, 157, 158, 159, 160, 161, 162, 163, 164, 165, 166, 167, 168, 169, 170, 171, 172, 173, 174, 175, 176, 177, 178, 179, 180, 181, 182, 183, 184, 185, 186, 187, 188, 189, 190, 191, 192, 193, 194, 195, 196, 197, 198, 199, 200, 201, 202, 203, 204, 205, 206, 207, 208, 209, 210, 211, 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218, 219, 220, 221, 222, 223, 224, 225, 226, 227,