It’s been an excellent first two days of the Festival, with Tuesday a particular standout. We’ve had a few impressive winners which makes a pleasing change! The ground was taking a turn for the worse but we are on the new course for Thursday and Friday and the going forecast is soft, good to soft in places (5.9) with 5-7mm of rain due on Wednesday night with a further 3-5mm during Thursday.
Thursday
13:30 Turners Novices’ Chase
By a process of elimination, I can’t oppose 5/6 favourite Mighty Potter who is 7lb ahead of the field on Timeform ratings. Appreciate It is a 9-y-o and may benefit from the longer trip, having been third to El Fabiolo in the Irish Arkle. The ground is unlikely to suit Banbridge.
14:10 Pertemps Final
I was going to pass on this race because I don’t have any strong views about it. For the sake of making a selection and for the placepot, I’ll choose current second favourite, Maxxum (5/1).
14:50 Ryanair
Shishkin (10/11) clearly relished the move up in trip and was back to his best when winning the Ascot Chase last month. A confident selection.
15:30 Stayers’ Hurdle
Teahupoo (11/4) has, in my view, rightly displaced Blazing Khal as favourite. The latter has had a fitness doubt right the way up to this and was touch and go to make it. Flooring Porter has won this for the last two years with his front-running performances but has both the ground and arguably improved opposition against him to make it a three-timer.
16:10 The Plate
Haut En Couleurs (6/1) is respected but I’m siding with Il Ridoto (8/1) to get Paul Nicholls off the mark at this year’s Festival, in what is a typically open renewal.
16:50 Mares’ Novices Hurdle
Luccia (6/4) is unbeaten (two bumpers and two hurdles) and is the deserving favourite and my selection. Halka Du Tabert is an each way option at 10/1.
17:30 Kim Muir
Stumptown (9/2) is yet another favourite who is hard to oppose. A very willing horse and a decent jumper who will relish the ground and trip. Anightinlambourn is an appealling each way option at 20/1.
Friday
13:30 Triumph Hurdle
Willie Mullins has the first four in the market and it’s 25/1 bar them. Current favourite Lossiemouth (13/8) appears to be the preferred one in the yard and this is backed up with Paul Townend’s booking to ride him. She was beaten by Gala Marceau (9/2) in the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival, but was severely hampered three out so that can be forgiven. The places were reversed in the Knight Frank Hurdle at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival. I’ve been flip flopping between Lossiemouth and Blood Destiny (2/1). I was very taken with the latter’s two easy wins this season, on soft and heavy, and Blood Destiny is the one that I’ve finally plumped for.
14:10 County Hurdle
This is an excellent renewal and, as the market demonstrates, strong cases can be made for many of them. Sharjah (8/1) has twice finished second in the Champion Hurdle but, as a 10-y-o, doesn’t seem to be quite the force of old. However, this is a significant drop in class and only his second handicap so he has to be respected, albeit with top weight. I’ve followed Aucunrisque (12/1) throughout his career and he has excellent form this season, topping it with a gutsy win in the Betfair Hurdle, beating current favourite Filey Bay (4/1). That was an ideal prep but, given the strength of this race, a further step up is required.
In the end I’m back with Willie Mullins again with Hunters Yarn (13/2), again the choice of Paul Townend, and with the prospect of maintaining the highly impressive record of owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede at this year’s Festival.
14:50 Albert Bartlett Hurdle
Corbetts Cross (4/1jf) is a highly progressive horse, having transferred trainer to the very shrewd Emmett Mullins in January and having been bought by J P McManus, presumably with this is mind. He’s chasing a four-timer and should be well-suited by both the ground and the distance.
15:30 Gold Cup
Galopin Des Champs (7/4f) won the Martin Pipe in 2021 and would certainly have won the Turners last year when uncharacteristically falling at the last. Since then he’s been untroubled, winning at 2/11, 2/9 and 30/100 and is the most likely winner. However, I still have my doubts, with this his longest trip yet on testing ground.
A Plus Tard (6/1) was a mightily impressive winner of last year’s Gold Cup and looked well placed to repeat the performance until putting in a shocker when pulled up in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last November. He’s not run since so this is a very tall order. However, trainer Henry de Bromhead remains confident and he’s having another good week at the Festival. He’ll either be fighting out the finish or come nowhere and the risk of the latter is too great for me.
Bravemansgame (6/1) was an impressive winner of the King George on good to soft, beating Royale Pagaille, Frodon, Eldorado Allen and Ahoy Senor. Paul Nicholls is insistent that he’s his best chance of a Gold Cup winner in recent years but he seemed flat out to me to win at 3m at Kempton and we know from numerous examples that this is a world apart from 3m 2 1/2f at Cheltenham, particularly on soft / good to soft ground. He was a weakening third over 2m 5f in the Ballymore at the Festival in 2021 on good to soft ground and he’s not for me.
Noble Yeats (7/1) is last year’s Grand National winner and made an inauspicious return this season when pulled up at Auteuil. He’s made progress since then but his third to Ahoy Senor in the Cotswold Chase here in January isn’t good enough and surely the National is the main target.
Stattler (8/1) is commendably reliable and was second to Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup. He’s just below top level and unlikely to reverse the form with the favourite.
Conflated (12/1) is an in and out horse who has had his moments but surely can’t take this, not least because he’s unproven over the distance.
Protektorat (14/1) was third in this race last year and followed up with a win in the Betfair Chase. However he was a disappointing 4th in the Cotswold Chase.
Ahoy Senor (16/1) is a horse that I’ve followed through thick and thin and he finally put it all together with a very impressive win in the Cotswold Chase here in January. He needs to settle into a rhythm and we’ll know whether he’s a player after the first half dozen fences. The yard is in excellent form, highlighted by Corach Rambler’s repeat win in the Ultima on Tuesday. It’s probably heart ruling head but he’s my selection (each way).
16:10 (Fox)Hunters Chase
This is a specialist discipline and it oftens pays to follow trainers and jockeys with form in these races. Trainer David Christie is an undoubted specialist and could have had half a dozen in this. As it is, he has just one and that’s the favourite, Vaucelet (9/4) ridden by the prolific Barry O’Neill who is one of the most successful ever Irish point-to-point winners with a tally of over 600.
Billaway (15/2) won this last year and was runner-up in 2020 and 2021. However, he doesn’t seem to be the force of old this season.
16:50 Mares’ Chase
All eyes will be on favourite Allegorie De Vassy (6/5f) who is unbeaten in four after switching to Wille Mullins and Rich Ricci, having previously been campaigned in France. She’s hugely talented but has a tendency to swerve violently to her right on occasion when jumping, which will make for an interesting round here. Assuming she stays on her feet (she’s not fallen yet) she should win.
Impervious is another who brings top form to the race, on a four-timer, and should relish the ground.
17:30 Martin Pipe
The last two winners were Banbridge (12/1) and Galopin Des Champs (8/1) so this field as a lot to live up to. That tendency to produce an up and coming but unheralded winner makes it a difficult one to fathom but I’m going to look more at some of the younger improvers rather those who are already exposed.
With that in mind it’s hard to look past current favourite Spanish Harlem (4/1) who seems to have all the right credentials. This is his handicap debut, carrying 11st 2lbs, and he’s a 5-y-o from the top yard with an excellent conditional jockey. I can see him being a much shorter price at the off to round off the Festival with a strongly backed winner.
Good luck!