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Category: National Hunt Racing (Page 1 of 15)

Boxing on Saturday

Here’s a departure from the norm on this site. Although there’s loads of boxing from three simultaneous events in the UK on Saturday evening, as usual there are a lot of opportunities to identify more or less nailed on winners. Here’s a 9-fold for your consideration (bet placed with Paddy Power).

Frank Warren has very sensibly changed the ring walk for Michael Conlan to 9.00 p.m. with Lawrence Okolie due at 10.00 p.m. and Mauricio Lara also due at 10.00 p.m.

So, how to approach the evening? None of the undercards are thrilling and at least one of the intended 10.00 p.m. ring walks is likely to be late.

9.00 p.m. Lopez v Conlan (BT Sport) for the IBF world featherweight title. This is likely to be a proper tear-up with Luis Albert Lopez having a record of 27-2-0 with 15kos. Conlan is likely to take it to the distance and win on points. This is my favourite match up of the night and should be done before the other two headliners.

10.00 p.m. Okolie v Billam-Smith (Sky Sports) for the WBO world cruiserweight title. Okolie can be a very boring boxer to watch. He gets the job done on points without setting the world alight. Tends to get there in messy fights so that’s the one to record. The counterpoint is that this is an outdoor fight at Bournemouth’s Vitality Stadium and that always adds a bit of a buzz. Billam-Smith has a record of 17-1-0 with 12 kos but I’m with Okolie to grind out yet another win.

10.00 p.m. Lara v Wood 2 (DAZN) for the WBA world featherweight title. Lara is a properly nasty Mexican. He spat at Josh Warrington after knocking out Wood in their first encounter on 18 February. This is likely to be a brutal affair and is a must watch.

I love boxing on the radio. It takes me back to the old days of listening to the Ali fights with Eamonn Andrews (himself a great amateur boxer) and followed by Harry Carpenter, Jim Neilly, Ian Darke, Jim Rosenthal and many others. I’m not a big fan of Ronald McIntosh on the BBC but Darren Fletcher and Jonathan Overend are both good.

Anyway, BBC 5live has Wood v Lara at 10.00 p.m., Talksport has Okolie v Billam-Smith at 9.00 p.m. I haven’t been able to find radio coverage of Lopez v Conlan but I’ll update this page if I do so.

Here’s my approach:

9 Folds

2.95/1

1 line(s) at £10.00 per line

Luis Alberto Lopez v Michael Conlan – Match Odds Michael Conlan 8/11 (18-0 1ko)

Lawrence Okolie v Chris Billam-Smith – Match Odds Lawrence Okolie 1/4 (19-0 0ko)

Mauricio Lara v Leigh Wood – Match Odds Mauricio Lara 1/3 (26-2-1 19kos)

William Crolla v Joe Hardy – Match Betting William Crolla 1/33 (0-0-0) (pro debut)

Aqib Fiaz v Costin Ion – Match Betting Aqib Fiaz 1/14 (11-0-0 1ko)

Campbell Hatton v Michal Bulik – Match Betting Campbell Hatton 1/25 (11-0-0 4kos)

Karriss Artingstall v Jade Taylor – Match Betting Karriss Artingstall 1/33 (3-0-0 0kos)

Nick Ball v Ludumo Lamati – Match Odds Nick Ball 1/18 (17-0-0 10kos)

Terri Harper v Ivana Habazin – Match Odds Terri Harper 1/10 (13-1-1 6kos)

Stake:£10.00

Potential returns:£39.54

Good luck!

Auteuil Saturday and Sunday and quick selections for Aintree on Friday evening

It’s Grand Steep weekend in Paris and it’s a particuarly good edition with lots of British and Irish runners to pique our curiosity.

The going? Well, of course it’s tres souple but we have Turftrax readings to give us a bit of a better idea and today (18 May), it’s 4.1 which equates to “very soft” (broadly soft to heavy in English parlance). The prize money is off the scale of course and, after a couple of quiet years in France, Willie Mullins has sent over a decent team for the big races.

There’s no betting available yet so this is just a guide to notable runners. By the way, did you know that the French for form is “musique”?

I hope that Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415) make it easy for us to watch all the races rather than pushing them behind UK races with late replays. As a fall back, you can set up a free account at france-galop.com and that has a “live” option on the website. The meetings that are likely to get in the way are Bangor-On-Dee on Saturday and Ripon on Sunday.

Incidentally, if you happened to be in Paris (and I do intend to be for this weekend next year), two day entry for the weekend is €8, Panoramic Stand €26 and gourmet elegance for €239 (personal welcome in the lounge and seat in the stands, cocktail lunch with soft drinks, wine and champagne “at will” with access to the weighing area).

Saturday

13:33 Prix Sagan Grade 3 3-y-o Hurdle

No foreign participants and these are ones to watch out for possible purchases by big UK and Irish yards. The likely favourite is Funny Berry (Gab Leenders/Felix De Giles).

14:15 Racing TV Grande Course de Haies d’Auteuil Grade 1 Hurdle

Loads of interest here with runners including Feronily (Emmet Mullins), Klassical Dream (WP), Asterion Forlonge (WP), Haut En Couleurs (WP), Flooring Porter (Gavin Cromwell), Kilcruit (WP), Hewick (Shark Hanlon) and Hermes Baie (Francois Nicolle). Rachael Blackmore takes the ride on Hewick and Paul Townend is on Klassical Dream but my preference is for Haut En Couleurs, ridden by Jonny Charron.

14:50 Prix “Le Parisien” Listed Mares’ Hurdle

Instit (WP/Townend) is a confident selection to beat likely favourite Ine Anjou (Solier/Lestrade).

15:25 Prix Saint-Sauveur Listed Chase

I fancy a Czech result here for the Velka Pardubice legends Josef Bartos/Josef Vana with Peace Garden.

16:00 Prix Le Guales de Mezaubran Listed Hurdle

Based on almost no knowledge of the runners (!) I’ll go for Bayaline (Lageneste & Macaire/Charron)

Sunday

The final cards are yet to be published so this is just a potted summary.

13:00 Prix Marechal Foch Chase (Amateurs’ Gold Cup)

Sumsam (Nick Littmoden) is the likely favourite.

13:35 Prix Aguado Grade 3 Hurdle

Star of the French 3-y-o hurdles season Jigme should win this. Almost certainly UK /IRE bound, possibly with J P McManus if I remember correctly.

15:05 Grand Steep De Paris Grade 1

Notable runners include Franco De Port (WP/Townend), Carriacou (Pacault/Meunier), Carefully Selected (WP/D Mullins) and Noble Yeats (Emmet Mullins/Sean Bowen).

I fancy WP to add this to his roll of honour with Carefully Selected.

Prix Alain Du Breil (French Triumph Hurdle) Grade 1

One of my favourite races of the year. Lou Fast should win this and the WP runners are Zarak The Brave (for Munir/Souede) and the excellent Gala Marceau. I fancy the latter to follow up on his last winner in this race, Footpad, in 2016.

We’ll have to wait and see about the final two races, the Prix Tanerko and Prix Carmont, because runners haven’t been uploaded yet.

Quick selections for Aintree tomorrow evening

17:20 Father of Jazz (evens)

15:55 The Big Bite (4/1)

18:30 Basford (5/2)

19:05 Mackenberg (6/1)

19:40 Kinondo Kwetu (11/4) (nap)

20:15 Malaita (3/1)

20:50 Cadell (15/8) (next best)

Good luck!

Punchestown 2023 – Thursday and Friday

Thursday

15:40 Broomfield Bijou 7/1

16:15 Douglas Talking 5/2f

16:50 Stealthy Tom 2/1f (ignore last hurdles run)

17:25 Klassical Dream 3/1

18:00 Grozni 15/2

18:35 El Fabiolo 2/7f

19:10 Pont Aval 11/1

19:45 Ballyburn 9/10f

Friday

15:40 Jet Fighter no prices yet

16:15 So Scottish 7/2jf

16:50 Impervious 9/10f

17:25 State Man 2/5f

18:00 Impaire Et Passe 3/10f

18:35 Vaucelet no prices yet

19:10 Monbeg Park no prices yet

19:45 Lecky Watson no prices yet

Good luck!

Ludlow Thursday 23 March

I’ll be at Ludlow on Thursday and, for a Class 3 and bunch of Class 4s, it’s a suprisingly interesting card with runners for Venetia Williams with a Rich Ricci horse, a strong favourite for Nicholls/Cobden and a runner for Henderson/de Boinville. There’s also a hotpot for Emma Lavelle. There’s a realistic chance that the favourites in the first five races will oblige.

The current Turftrax going stick reading is 5.7 and there’s rain due (91% chance on Thursday). Comparing other reports, 6.0 is reported as heavy at Ffos Las tomorrow (Wednesday) and , perhaps more comparable, Chepstow 4.6 soft, heavy in places for Thursday. If there’s a decent amount of rain in the next couple of days (likely) I wouldn’t be surprised to see the going changed to soft, heavy in places.

14:25 Novices Hurdle 1m 7.5f Class 4

Welsh Charger***** 2/1f was second to Jacks Profit**** (11/4) here on 2 March (stole a lead and first 2 well ahead) but gets a 7lb swing in the weights. Jacks Profit won at Wolves in a Class 5 on 18 March. Other to consider – Fuji Rocks*** (6/1) 7/15 here on 22 February in a race won by Welsh Charger (won well).

15:00 Handicap Chase 2m 4f Class 4

Fire Dancer*** 15/8f for V Williams/C Deutsch/R Ricci should win. Pulled up last time out on 28/1/23 in a Class 2 at Cheltenham in which he led to the 8th in a race won by Grade 1 Festival winner Stage Star. Won well before that here on 6 January after a lay off of over 800 days. Back to his level.

The main threat is Cartonne*** 5/2 on a three timer after two wins at Musselburgh (led all the way in the latest against not much opposition)

15:35 Handicap Hurdle 1m 7.5f Class 4

Killaloan***** (5/4f) is probably the horse of the day. Very progressive for Nicholls/Cobden and with a 7lb penalty after two wins at Taunton, the latest on 13 March in which Harry Cobden knew that he was on the winner well out, beating an odds on favourite. He’s still a bit novicey, straying well left on the run in but should come on well for that.

Berties Wish*** (3/1) comes here following a win at Sedgefield, beating nothing of note. He’s a difficult ride.

The others are here to make up the numbers and I expect the favourite to be well odds on by the start.

16:10 Handicap Chase 3m Class 3

Concetto*** (6/4f) is the least likely favourite to win but is another seeking a three timer. Entered in two other races at Newbury on Friday so may be a non-runner. Won very comfortably in a Class 5 for Henry Brooke last time out at Musselburgh on 1 March, following up with another Class 5 win at Huntingdon. Definitely needs good ground so that may be a factor if there’s rain. Nick Luck: “big raw horse, plenty to learn but he can jump alright”.

First Figaro** would be my selection for Venetia were it not for the fact that he’s a 13-y-o. Was second in a Class 2 veterans’ chase last time out at Newbury, but that was in April 2022 (stayed on from a distant third when the second at the time blundered at the last). Is this a valedictory run for the trainer/owner?

Latitude** is probably the main threat to the favourite (and likely favourite if Concetto defects to Newbury). Hasn’t won since here in January 2022. Lost by a neck when a beaten favourite to Ned Tanner on 17 February in a Class 3 at Musselburgh. Not quite a squiggle but definitely a questionable jumper.

16:45 Maiden Hurdle 2m 5f Class 4

Tightenourbelts***** is the justified forecast 4/9f and should break his duck (422) here, having lost by half a length but well ahead of the rest to a Stewart family decent horse (subsequently 3rd in the EBF final at Sandown) here on 7 February. There’s no similar opposition here and the price reflects that.

17:20 Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f Class 4

This is undoubtedly the most difficult of the first 6 races, notwithstanding that the forecast favourite, Amrons Sage** (3/1f) runs for Henderson and de Boinville. He was 4th of 11 to when threatening to win and fading when clouting the last on dodgy ground at Sandown on 16 February. He was miles behind Pembroke (17th of 24 in the County Hurdle) when picking up the pieces here on 22 December to finish a distant second. He has all the hallmarks of an underperforming horse.

No No Tango** (5/1) for Charlie Longsden was a well beaten third last time out at Kempton on 10 February against not much opposition.

Mailaita** runs for Mel Rowley off 109 and bids to follow up on a Class 5 win last time out at Carlisle on 20 February. She fought hard to win from Iolani (second at 28/1) and it’s doubtful that this Class 5 form amounts to much.

I’m claming no credit for this but I’m very interested in the bottom weight (OR98) and Timeform selection Duke Of Moravia*** (6/1) (also entered at Hereford on Friday). He was 7/2f when third at Warwick last time out on 31 December (ran on really well). The last two runs were on heavy and he’s had a decent break. The jockey booking of Harry Cobden is also notable.

Selections

14:25 Welsh Charger

15:00 Fire Dancer

15:35 Killaloan

16:10 Concetto

16:45 Tightenourbelts

17:20 Duke Of Moravia

Lucky 15

14:25 Welsh Charger

15:00 Fire Dancer

15:35 Killaloan

16:45 Tightenourbelts

Good luck!

Cheltenham 2023 – Thursday and Friday

It’s been an excellent first two days of the Festival, with Tuesday a particular standout. We’ve had a few impressive winners which makes a pleasing change! The ground was taking a turn for the worse but we are on the new course for Thursday and Friday and the going forecast is soft, good to soft in places (5.9) with 5-7mm of rain due on Wednesday night with a further 3-5mm during Thursday.

Thursday

13:30 Turners Novices’ Chase

By a process of elimination, I can’t oppose 5/6 favourite Mighty Potter who is 7lb ahead of the field on Timeform ratings. Appreciate It is a 9-y-o and may benefit from the longer trip, having been third to El Fabiolo in the Irish Arkle. The ground is unlikely to suit Banbridge.

14:10 Pertemps Final

I was going to pass on this race because I don’t have any strong views about it. For the sake of making a selection and for the placepot, I’ll choose current second favourite, Maxxum (5/1).

14:50 Ryanair

Shishkin (10/11) clearly relished the move up in trip and was back to his best when winning the Ascot Chase last month. A confident selection.

15:30 Stayers’ Hurdle

Teahupoo (11/4) has, in my view, rightly displaced Blazing Khal as favourite. The latter has had a fitness doubt right the way up to this and was touch and go to make it. Flooring Porter has won this for the last two years with his front-running performances but has both the ground and arguably improved opposition against him to make it a three-timer.

16:10 The Plate

Haut En Couleurs (6/1) is respected but I’m siding with Il Ridoto (8/1) to get Paul Nicholls off the mark at this year’s Festival, in what is a typically open renewal.

16:50 Mares’ Novices Hurdle

Luccia (6/4) is unbeaten (two bumpers and two hurdles) and is the deserving favourite and my selection. Halka Du Tabert is an each way option at 10/1.

17:30 Kim Muir

Stumptown (9/2) is yet another favourite who is hard to oppose. A very willing horse and a decent jumper who will relish the ground and trip. Anightinlambourn is an appealling each way option at 20/1.

Friday

13:30 Triumph Hurdle

Willie Mullins has the first four in the market and it’s 25/1 bar them. Current favourite Lossiemouth (13/8) appears to be the preferred one in the yard and this is backed up with Paul Townend’s booking to ride him. She was beaten by Gala Marceau (9/2) in the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival, but was severely hampered three out so that can be forgiven. The places were reversed in the Knight Frank Hurdle at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival. I’ve been flip flopping between Lossiemouth and Blood Destiny (2/1). I was very taken with the latter’s two easy wins this season, on soft and heavy, and Blood Destiny is the one that I’ve finally plumped for.

14:10 County Hurdle

This is an excellent renewal and, as the market demonstrates, strong cases can be made for many of them. Sharjah (8/1) has twice finished second in the Champion Hurdle but, as a 10-y-o, doesn’t seem to be quite the force of old. However, this is a significant drop in class and only his second handicap so he has to be respected, albeit with top weight. I’ve followed Aucunrisque (12/1) throughout his career and he has excellent form this season, topping it with a gutsy win in the Betfair Hurdle, beating current favourite Filey Bay (4/1). That was an ideal prep but, given the strength of this race, a further step up is required.

In the end I’m back with Willie Mullins again with Hunters Yarn (13/2), again the choice of Paul Townend, and with the prospect of maintaining the highly impressive record of owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede at this year’s Festival.

14:50 Albert Bartlett Hurdle

Corbetts Cross (4/1jf) is a highly progressive horse, having transferred trainer to the very shrewd Emmett Mullins in January and having been bought by J P McManus, presumably with this is mind. He’s chasing a four-timer and should be well-suited by both the ground and the distance.

15:30 Gold Cup

Galopin Des Champs (7/4f) won the Martin Pipe in 2021 and would certainly have won the Turners last year when uncharacteristically falling at the last. Since then he’s been untroubled, winning at 2/11, 2/9 and 30/100 and is the most likely winner. However, I still have my doubts, with this his longest trip yet on testing ground.

A Plus Tard (6/1) was a mightily impressive winner of last year’s Gold Cup and looked well placed to repeat the performance until putting in a shocker when pulled up in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last November. He’s not run since so this is a very tall order. However, trainer Henry de Bromhead remains confident and he’s having another good week at the Festival. He’ll either be fighting out the finish or come nowhere and the risk of the latter is too great for me.

Bravemansgame (6/1) was an impressive winner of the King George on good to soft, beating Royale Pagaille, Frodon, Eldorado Allen and Ahoy Senor. Paul Nicholls is insistent that he’s his best chance of a Gold Cup winner in recent years but he seemed flat out to me to win at 3m at Kempton and we know from numerous examples that this is a world apart from 3m 2 1/2f at Cheltenham, particularly on soft / good to soft ground. He was a weakening third over 2m 5f in the Ballymore at the Festival in 2021 on good to soft ground and he’s not for me.

Noble Yeats (7/1) is last year’s Grand National winner and made an inauspicious return this season when pulled up at Auteuil. He’s made progress since then but his third to Ahoy Senor in the Cotswold Chase here in January isn’t good enough and surely the National is the main target.

Stattler (8/1) is commendably reliable and was second to Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup. He’s just below top level and unlikely to reverse the form with the favourite.

Conflated (12/1) is an in and out horse who has had his moments but surely can’t take this, not least because he’s unproven over the distance.

Protektorat (14/1) was third in this race last year and followed up with a win in the Betfair Chase. However he was a disappointing 4th in the Cotswold Chase.

Ahoy Senor (16/1) is a horse that I’ve followed through thick and thin and he finally put it all together with a very impressive win in the Cotswold Chase here in January. He needs to settle into a rhythm and we’ll know whether he’s a player after the first half dozen fences. The yard is in excellent form, highlighted by Corach Rambler’s repeat win in the Ultima on Tuesday. It’s probably heart ruling head but he’s my selection (each way).

16:10 (Fox)Hunters Chase

This is a specialist discipline and it oftens pays to follow trainers and jockeys with form in these races. Trainer David Christie is an undoubted specialist and could have had half a dozen in this. As it is, he has just one and that’s the favourite, Vaucelet (9/4) ridden by the prolific Barry O’Neill who is one of the most successful ever Irish point-to-point winners with a tally of over 600.

Billaway (15/2) won this last year and was runner-up in 2020 and 2021. However, he doesn’t seem to be the force of old this season.

16:50 Mares’ Chase

All eyes will be on favourite Allegorie De Vassy (6/5f) who is unbeaten in four after switching to Wille Mullins and Rich Ricci, having previously been campaigned in France. She’s hugely talented but has a tendency to swerve violently to her right on occasion when jumping, which will make for an interesting round here. Assuming she stays on her feet (she’s not fallen yet) she should win.

Impervious is another who brings top form to the race, on a four-timer, and should relish the ground.

17:30 Martin Pipe

The last two winners were Banbridge (12/1) and Galopin Des Champs (8/1) so this field as a lot to live up to. That tendency to produce an up and coming but unheralded winner makes it a difficult one to fathom but I’m going to look more at some of the younger improvers rather those who are already exposed.

With that in mind it’s hard to look past current favourite Spanish Harlem (4/1) who seems to have all the right credentials. This is his handicap debut, carrying 11st 2lbs, and he’s a 5-y-o from the top yard with an excellent conditional jockey. I can see him being a much shorter price at the off to round off the Festival with a strongly backed winner.

Good luck!

Cheltenham 2023 Tuesday and Wednesday

The going is currently soft (5.7) on the old course which is in use for the first two days. It’s expected to be sticky and dead under the top covering so you need horses that have form on soft. The strange weather over the winter has also affected the grass. It was 6.3 on the equivalent day in 2022.

Tuesday

13:30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Facile Vega 5/2f

Can you forgive the last run at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF)? I’m not sure that I can.

Il Etait Temps (9/2)

Won really well in the same race and the ground will suit. Only 1lb behind Facile Vega on Timeform ratings and taken to repeat the win.

Marine Nationale (5/1)

Much heralded but hasn’t run for 100 days which is a big negative for me. Won the Royal Bond but hasn’t been tested at the same level as some of the others.

Of them, High Definition (18/1) was a good flat horse but will surely be unsuited by the ground and there are questions over jumping. Rare Edition is an each way possible at 25/1 (look for extra places with the bookies).

Selections It Etait Temps / Rare Edition (e/w)

14:10 Arkle

El Fabiolo (6/4f)

Second to Jonbon in an Aintree Grade 1 hurdle last season and has really impressed in his two chases this term. Timeform top rated.

Jonbon (7/4)

Only beaten once (by Constitution Hill in last year’s Supreme). Questions after last outing at Warwick and I think that El Fabiolo has the edge.

Dysart Dynamo (13/2)

Very fast (maybe too fast) and only one way of running – flat out. Has form on soft and heavy. Could build up a decent lead but surely the others will haul him in.

Selection El Fabiolo

14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase

6/1 the field is about right and this could go to a longer odds horse that relishes the test and the ground. Last year’s winner Corach Rambler is the favourite and carries only 6lb more. However, I’m picking two at 18/1, Fantastikas and The Big Breakaway.

15:30 Champion Hurdle

Constitution Hill (4/11) has everything and is shaping to be one of the best hurdlers of recent years. Timeform rated 10lb ahead of the field and could easily justify more. There is even talk of him running in the Ascot Gold Cup if all goes well here.

State Man (100/30) would be the likely winner in a normal year but has come up against a monster in the favourite.

Jason The Militant is worth a look at 150/1 e/w (first two only).

My selection is Constitution Hill by 10 lengths or more and State Man to finish second at 3/1 (Paddy Power).

16:10 Mares’ Hurdle

This is a great race. I’m against last year’s winner and current favourite Marie’s Rock (9/4), as well as Honeysuckle and Epatante, both of whom are past their best. Brandy Love is respected but my selection is last year’s Mares’ Novices’ winner, the ever progressive Love Envoi, at an appealling 9/1.

16:50 Boodles Handicap Hurdle

Tekao is too short for me at 7/2. Bad is an intriguing entry, making his UK debut, having only ever run (on good to soft and heavy) at Bordeaux Le Bouscat. Sir Allen could improve, but I’m going for an e/w outsider Fils De Roi at 50/1.

17:30 National Hunt Chase

Gaillard Du Mesnil (Evens) looks head and shoulders above the opposition. Third in last year’s Brown Advisory and Irish Grand National, decent placed performances behind Mighty Potter and a Grade 1 winner last Christmas, he should arguably be a much shorter price.

Wednesday

13:30 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

My selection of the week is Impaire Et Passe (7/4). Rightly deserving of a “big P” in Timeform’s ratings (163), this one was also chosen by David Casey as his pick of the week in this morning’s Road To Cheltenham.

Hermes Allen was a good winner of an above average Challow Hurdle but that route to Cheltenham does not have a good track record.

Gaelic Warrior was just pipped in last year’s Fred Winter but he has a tendency to jump right. Won a Grade B hurdle last month but the other races this season were at 1/14 and 1/12 at Clonmel and Tramore and therefore pretty meaningless.

14:10 Brown Advisory Chase

Many tipsters won’t hear of defeat for 7/4f Gerri Colombe but I’m not so sure. Sir Gerhard is very inexperienced and put in a novicey performance in his only chase outing. However, he won the Champion Bumper two years ago and the Ballymore last season and that Cheltenham form has to be respected. The Real Whacker won the Dipper here on very similar ground on New Year’s Day and is my selection, ahead of Thyme Hill, who won the Kauto Star at Kempton at Christmas, albeit in a very slow time.

14:50 Coral Cup

As usual, this is a wide open race so I’m picking two, pretty much at random, HMS Seahorse (9/1) and Icare Allen (25/1).

15:30 Champion Chase

I see this as a pick’em between the pair that head the field, Edwardstone (6/4) and Energumene (7/4) and, just on balance, I prefer the former.

16:10 Cross Country

Franco De Port is reportedly being aimed at the Grand Steeplechase De Paris, with this as a stepping stone. Davy Russell appears to have chosen Galvin ahead of Delta Work and it’s 18/1 bar the top three. This is Galvin’s first attempt in this discipline, having come fourth in last year’s Gold Cup, and think that Davy is on the right one.

16:50 Grand Annual

The last four winners of this race were priced at 28/1, 14/1, 7/2 and 66/1. It will be fast and furious. Final Orders is a five times’ winner over fences and seems ideally suited to this type of race. After his last win I decided that I would follow him wherever he truned up and this seems just fine to me at 6/1.

17:30 Champion Bumper

The received wisdom is that when Willie Mullins throws a number of darts at this, there is no anticipated winner. I have no idea what will win and, I suspect, nor do they. The current favourite, A Dream To Share, is not a WP horse but I suspect that won’t be the case at the off. As ever, it is worth keeping a close eye on market movers. Based on races I’ve watched I’ll go for It’s For Me (5/1) and Fun Fun Fun (9/1), both sporting the double greens of Simon Munir and Isaac Suede, with the latter benefiting from the significant mares’ allowance of 7lb.

Good luck!

Cheltenham early calls (updated 23 February)

Tuesday

Supreme – Il Etait Temps 11/2

Arkle – El Fabiolo 6/4

Ultima – Into Overdrive 9/1

Champion Hurdle – Constitution Hill 1/3

Mares Hurdle – Maries Rock 7/2

Boodles – Nusret 10/1

NH Chase – Gaillard Du Mesnil 11/8

Wednesday

Ballymore – Impaire Et Passe 7/2

Brown Advisory – The Real Whacker 5/1

Coral Cup – HMS Seahorse 10/1

Champion Chase – Editeur Du Gite 6/1

Cross Country – Delta Work 11/10

Grand Annual – Final Orders 10/1

Champion Bumper – It’s For Me 7/2

Thursday

Turners – Mighty Potter 11/8

Pertemps – Perceval Legallois 6/1

Ryanair – Shishkin 5/4

Stayers’ Hurdle – Teahupoo 7/2

Plate – Haut En Couleurs 9/1

Mares’ Novice Hurdle – Luccia 7/4

Kim Muir – Guetapan Collonges 16/1

Friday

Triumph – Blood Destiny 3/1

County Hurdle – Winter Fog 12/1

Albert Bartlett – Corbetts Cross 8/1

Gold Cup – Galopin Des Champs 7/4; Ahoy Senor 12/1 e/w

Hunters’ Chase – Vaucelet 9/4

Mares’ Chase – Allegorie De Vassy 13/8

Martin Pipe – Spanish Harlem 15/2

Early Cheltenham Thoughts

Tuesday

Supreme – Il Etait Temps

Arkle – El Fabiolo

Ultima – ?

Champion Hurdle – Constitution Hill

Mares Hurdle – Maries Rock

Boodles – Gala Marceau

NH Chase – Gaillard Du Mesnil

Wednesday

Ballymore – Impaire Et Passe

Brown Advisory – The Real Whacker

Coral Cup – Gaelic Warrior

Champion Chase – Editeur Du Gite

Cross Country – Delta Work

Grand Annual – Final Orders

Champion Bumper – ?

Thursday

Turners – Mighty Potter

Pertemps – Perceval Legallois

Ryanair – Pic D’Orhy

Stayers’ Hurdle – Teahupoo

Plate – Haut En Couleurs

Mares’ Novice Hurdle – Ashroe Diamond

Kim Muir – Gars De Sceaux

Friday

Triumph – Blood Destiny

County Hurdle – Gaelic Warrior (again)

Albert Bartlett – ?

Gold Cup – Galopin Des Champs

Hunters’ Chase – Vaucelet

Mares’ Chase – Allegorie De Vassy

Martin Pipe – Gaelic Warrior (again)

Cheltenham Showcase October 21-22 and the new PM

Friday

13:35 Conditional Jockeys’ Hurdle 2m 87y Class 3

Soul Icon* on a five timer albeit in minor races is good value at 7/2.

14:10 Novices’ Chase 2m Class 2

Aucunrisque** was one of my horses to follow last season and should be nicely primed for this at 100/30.

14:45 Novices’ Hurdle 2m 4f Class 2

She Is Electric is seriously considered but Champion Bumper eighth, Music Drive** (9/4) should win this for Gordon Elliott.

15:20 Handicap Chase 2m 4f Class 3

Pull Again Green is a promising prospect on his chase debut but I prefer Emma Lavelle’s Hang In There** at 7/2, another on a potential five timer.

15:55 Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f Class 3

This is trappy but I think that Francky Du Berlais* (10/1) is overpriced.

16:30 Amateurs’ Handicap Chase 3m 1f Class 3

A complete lottery with no outstanding amateur jockeys. Having said that, I’m drawn to the favourite, Powerful Position* (9/2) and Marracudja (not the force of old) at 33/1 for a first four place.

17:05 Maiden Hurdle 2m 1/2f Class 3

Unbeaten Twinjets*** (2/1) should win this. A very promising horse.

Saturday

13:30 Novices’ Hurdle 3m Class 2

Saint Palais*** is outstanding value at 4/1 third favourite. One of those early season runners who will go on to flower during the season.

14:05 Handicap Chase 3m 1f Class 2

I have no idea why The Hollow Ginge is favourite so, in my view, it’s a distorted market which is great. I like Tullybeg** at 6/1 for Gordon Elliott (although check the declaration for the 3.20 on Friday). If he runs on Friday then I’ll switch to Coeur Serein* (10/1) for Jonjo and Jonjo.

14:40 Hurdle 2m Class 2

This is a perfect new season debut for shortening evens favourite Pied Piper*** to start a very promising season.

15:15 Handicap Chase 2m Class 2

This is an intriguing race which could well identify a small yard with a serious horse for the season. That trainer could be Laura Morgan (https://www.lauramorganracing.co.uk/) who is chasing a six timer with current favourite Clear The Runway** (3/1). Admittedly, the wins have come at minor courses but the last was a Class 2 after a Class 3 and the trainer’s season form is 21 winners from 96 runners with 22 placed.

15:50 Handicap Hurdle 3m Class 2

This is another conundrum. My instant selection was Botox Has (6/1f) for Gary Moore but then I noticed the last four wins for Salvador Ziggy 15/2 (Gordon Elliott), the good words for An Taillur (9/1) (one of my horses to follow) and the 11113 form for Gordon Elliott’s Lieutenant Highway. After reflection (but with no great confidence) I’m going for An Taillur* after a decent second at Cartmel and a win at Haydock at the back end of last season.

16:25 Novices’ Chase 3m Class 2

No odds available for this one yet, presumably because Ash Tree Meadow is declared for the 2.10 on Friday. In a reformed market I would go for Henry De Bromhead’s recent winner Life In The Park, (on a four timer) albeit without Rachael Blackmore (injured after a schooling fall).

17:00 Bumper 2m Class 2

Loads of good prospects and, of those that have run previously, the majority won! Good luck and watch the market.

New Prime Minister

Oh I could go on at length in an intro about what nonsense this is but, instead, I’ll confine myself to the market. We need a general election, obviously, but our parliamentary system doesn’t permit it at the moment.

Current odds are taken from Paddy Power Politics.

Rishi Sunak

The 4/5 favourite. He’s the technocrat choice, in the same vein as Mario Draghi (about to be succeeded by neo-fascist Georgia Meloni as Italian prime minister unless Putin mate Berlusconi brings her down in about the same timescale as Truss). Popular with the financial markets and a perfect match for Jeremy Hunt as his mouthpiece Chancellor. However, he’s reviled by the hard right ERG and too divisive. If “elected” he won’t command a parliamentary majority and will fall as soon as there is a meaningful vote on the economy.

Boris Johnson

I’m far from convinced that he’ll stand. BUT. Two hours ago he was 14/1 and now he’s 9/4 second favourite. He’s won every electoral competition that he’s run for and the Conservative members love him. If he passes the 100 MPs’ threshold on Monday and it goes to the membership with their online votes (if they know how to do that) he’ll win. That could be short lived when the Privileges Committee inevitably finds that he misled Parliament.

Penny Mordaunt

She is the betting selection at 9/2. She’s the only one with any propect of uniting the Conservative Party and did her case a power of good when standing in for Truss when answering an urgent question earlier this week. Her biggest challenge is getting 100 Tory MP supporters by Monday. If she does, she wins.

Others

For entertainment value, other odds include:

  • Michael Gove (80/1)
  • Priti Patel (100/1)
  • Jacob Rees-Mogg (100/1)
  • Sue-Ellen (named after the Dallas character) Braverman (100/1)
  • Esther McVey (yes, really) (100/1)

Aintree 2022 – Friday

Here are my selections for Friday at Aintree

13:45 Handicap Hurdle – Grade 3

21 Mackenberg (28/1 e/w)

14:20 Top Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 1

3 El Fabiolo (4/1); Aucunrisque (12/1 e/w)

14:55 Mildmay Novices’ Chase – Grade 1

4 L’homme Presse (5/4 jf)

15:30 Marsh (Melling) Chase – Grade 1

4 Fakir D’oudairies (5/4)

16:05 Topham Chase (National Course) – Grade 3

1 Royal Rendezvous (10/1); 7 Killer Clown (18/1 e/w)

16:40 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 1

8 Gelino Bello (9/2)

17:15 Conditional Jockeys’ Hurdle – Class 2

9 Washington (11/2)

Good luck!

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