The going today was described by all the jockeys I heard on Thursday as perfect, so all seems to be set well for the remaining two days. There have been some heavy showers locally this evening but I think that the ground was so decent today that it will hold at ideal good to soft, so no excuses. Selma De Vary was arguably unlucky again after being pushed right twice, but still managed a commendable second in the opener. Lulamba’s fall followed a few dodgy jumps and Koktail Divin duly took the honours in his absence. Jango Baie was a very impressive winner of the Bowl; all the more impressive after a hard run in the Gold Cup. I was delighted with Lets Go Champ’s second in the Foxhunters’ at 11/1. Brighterdaysahead duly won the Aintree Hurdle, and is clearly better suited by the distance and this type of track. Gordon Elliott is still saying that she’ll go chasing next season. Sans Bruit ran well in the Red Rum Chase but was beaten by better horses. A profitable day, hopefully to be repeated on Friday, but with tougher races on a weaker day’s racing.
A few haven’t progressed from Cheltenham but enough have done so to suggest that the four weeks’ gap from the Festival is sufficient not to inconvenience them.
13:45 Handicap Hurdle 2m4f
Indeevar Bleu (5/1) is a popular favourite and the Racing Post nap, having won over course and distance on Boxing Day, but this is a much tougher call. I can’t split Jazzy Matty (9/1) and Joyeuse (13/2). Joyeuse was third in the County Hurdle and should benefit from the increase in distance. Jazzy Matty was a close second in the Grand Annual and benefits from a notable lower hurdle mark. Hot Fuss (15/2) is another who was second at the Festival in the Martin Pipe.
14:20 Mildmay Novices’ Chase Grade 1 3m1f
Gold Dancer (4/1f) is not from WP’s top drawer and has not won beyond 2 1/2m (last of four in his only attempt at 3m). However, he was an impressive second in the Jack Richards, with Regent’s Stroll (5/1) third. Will he stay? Wendigo (9/2) fell in the Brown Advisory and I don’t think that he’s good enough to win a Grade 1, even a sub par one like this. The same applies to Miami Magic (9/2), with his only win over this sort of distance against inferior opposition. Doyen Quest (14/1) has the benefit of a break since January but he has been beaten by Salver (4/1jf) on his last two outings and I don’t see the form being reversed here. Salver has been campaigned with the best and has a record of 2 from 5 over fences, both Grade 2s and was third in the Brown Advisory. This is his opportunity to take a step up.
14:55 Top Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 2m1/2f
This should be between Sober Glory (4/6f – nap) and Baron Noir (7/2). The reference is the Supreme in which Sober Glory was a fine second, with Baron Noir 9 lengths back in fourth. I see no reason for the placings to be reversed this time.
Sinnatra (7/1) was fifth in the County Hurdle, which is a long way behind the form of the market leaders. Timeform takes the same view with the three named in the order suggested.
15:30 Melling Chase Grade 1 2m4f
Heart Wood (6/4f) was a fine winner of the Ryanair, beating Jonbon and Banbridge (latter running in the National), and is confidently taken to follow up here. Grey Dawning’s (3/1) recent form is 134 and the application of head gear plus the reduction in trip suggests that this is an attempt to find a solution.
Gidleigh Park (5/1) ran poorly and was pulled up last time out, but has decent form here when second to Impaire Et Passe and beating Jango Baie in last year’s Manifesto Novices’ Chase, but it takes a leap of faith to believe that he’s retained that level of form.
Solness (17/2) is a very in and out horse. Fifth of six last time out in the Dublin Chase, his previous run was a win in a Grade 1 at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival, beating Marine Nationale and Majborough. Surprisingly (to me at least) this is his first attempt at Aintree and there’s a good chance that he’ll take to the course. Definitely worth a little each way at 9/1, even with only seven runners.
16:05 Topham Chase 2m5f
It’s surprising to see Il Est Francais (16/1) and Croke Park (22/1) in this and I suspect that both are looking for a route to revival over a different test. Not for me.
Ile Atlantique’s form is better than the price suggests (9/1), having won a Grade 2 last season and second to Heart Wood in the New Year’s Day Chase at Tramore. However, his eighth in the Leopardstown Chase at the DRF is concerning.
Gentleman De Mee (9/1) is last year’s 14/1 winner of this, having just beaten Lisnmamault Lad (16/1), when both were clear of the field and is respected.
The outstanding candidate is favourite Madara (9/2) who comes here on the back of a 7 1/2 lengths win in the Plate at the Festival. A good and smooth jumper in the best form of his life, who should take well to this challenge.
16:40 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 3m1/2f
This is a genuinely intriguing (difficult!) race and, unlike some of the others this week, fully deserving of its Grade 1 status.
Johnny’s Jury is obviously at the (joint) head of the market at 100/30f, having won the Albert Bartlett in good style. However, unless I’m mistaken which is quite possible, this is only the fifth run of his career, with the first three having been in Class 4s. Was he a freak winner of the Albert Bartlett at 20/1? Possibly. This is also a very different challenge.
Zeus Power (6/1) was a 50/1 third in the Turners, having persevered well after a poor start having been hampered. His previous form was moderate, as suggested by the price.
Mondoui’boy’s (11/2) form is altogether more impressive, having won a maiden at Ludlow in January, a Class 2 at Ascot and then coming fourth in the Albert Bartlett, having been a front runner when those who beat him came from behind. Definitely progressive and very popular with tipsters, but not Timeform, which doesn’t have him placing.
Paul Nicholls has not had a good season to put it mildly. However, in the absence of Caldwell Potter, No Drama This End (100/30jf) is undoubtedly his stable star. I’m happy to disregard completely his run in the Turners in which he was disadvantaged from the start and was knocked about until rightly being pulled up. I think that the course will suit and we will see the real horse. If you ignore the Cheltenham debacle he would surely be the justified favourite and I’m more than happy to take as a better reference his preceding three Class 1 wins at Cheltenham, Sandown and Newbury. A confident selection and it will be good to see Mr Nicholls smiling again at a Festival with a Grade 1 winner. The price is great value.
17:15 Conditionals and Amateurs’ Hurdle 2m1/2f
The last three winners of this race started at 25/1, 40/1 and 40/1, so good luck!
With no conviction, I’m going to support the Nicholls family to follow up with Pourquoi Pas Papa (9/1), a good challenge for the commentator, who ran very creditably when fourth in the Fred Winter.
I don’t get why Harry Lowes is the favourite at 4/1. It’s notable that Patrick Mullins is on Sherminator (6/1) for Emma Lavelle.
Bearing in mind recent renewals, for a longer odds option, I’ll pick No Ordinary Joe (33/1), but with no conviction.
Good luck!
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