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Category: Aintree (Page 1 of 5)

Aintree 2026 – Thursday

April 1, 2026 / / 0 Comments

There is concern that the going may be a bit fast with the warm weather going into the Aintree Festival. There has been heavy watering on good/good to soft ground (as of Tuesday). However, the rain prospects are 63% Thursday morning, 63% Friday and 55% Saturday so it could get a bit messy. That said, my prediction is good to soft throughout.

13:45 Boodles 4yo Juvenile Hurdle Grade 1 2m4f

This is a great race to get things under way and, unsuprisingly, the reference is the Triumph. Maestro Conti was second, Minella Study third and Selma De Vary fourth. The second and third had straight runs and Selma De Vary was hampered so it’s no surprise to see the latter as favourite for this. Minella Study comes from a small yard and it would be great to see him win but I think that he’s just below top ranking. Maestro Conti was unbeaten going into the Triumph and is a fine horse. Just on balance, I’m going with the filly Selma De Vary (11/4f) who surprised connections when coming second at the DRF (beating Mange Tout) and may have more improvement to come.

14:20 Manifesto Novices’ Chase Grade 1 2m1f

I like Mambonumberfive (16/1) who missed the Cheltenham Festival. However, this is surely between Lulamba (4/7f), third in the Arkle and likely better over this trip and Koktail Divin (11/4), sixth over too far in the Brown Advisory, with the former very likely to prevail.

14:55 Aintree Bowl Chase Grade 1 3m1f

Jango Baie (evensf) was a fine second in the Gold Cup, but how much has that taken out of him? He was fourth in that close finish in the King George and third here behind Impaire Et Passe and Gidleigh Park in the Manifesto Novices’ Chase here last year. Impaire Et Passe (4/1) was in rear and pulled up in the Ryanair. Although in and out he’s a fine horse and I think that he might just prevail here if on a going day.

15:30 Foxhunters’ Chase 2m5f

It’s very hard to oppose Barton Snow (11/4f), who beat Its On The Line in the Cheltenham Hunters’ Chase and is on a six-timer. However, I’m going to with Lets Go Champ (12/1) for Margaret Mullins and Sophie Carter. He beat Hunters Yarn at Gowran and Stuzzikini in his last two outings, having previously been third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. He had a four year gap between 2019 and 2023 so is a “young” 11yo (previously with Henry de Bromhead).

16:05 Aintree Hurdle Grade 1 2m4f

It’s great that this race is on Thursday and is the fourth Grade 1 of the day! I’m going to stick with Brighterdaysahead (2/1jf) to beat The New Lion (2/1jf) again after their second and third behind Lossiemouth in the Champion Hurdle. Potters Charm (14/1) missed Cheltenham but I don’t think that he’s quite up to the standard set by the market leaders. I’ve loved Il Fabiolo (6/1) but I think that the fifth of five in the Irish Champion Hurdle is representative of his chance.

16:40 Red Rum Handicap Chase 2m

Sans Bruit (100/30f) has form of 66544 but it’s impossible to ignore that he’s won this for the last two years and I’m with him for the hat-trick. Timeform prefers Highlands Legacy (8/1) but I’m not a big fan of O’Neill horses (as will be apparent on Saturday). Inthepocket (13/2) does not have a great record but did take the Top Novices’ here in 2023, which is a long time ago, and the fall in the Grand Annual this year is more pertinent. The rest are not up to much so, at the price, this is my nap of the day.

17:15 Mares’ Bumper 2m1f

Well, take your pick! The Timeform selection is Princess Day and she’s also the 7/2f. Nan’s Choice (6/1) was a reasonably expensive purchase for the Skeltons but we know where that road can lead. Ti’mamzel (7/1) was a decent winner for the Moores at Sandown and they have to be respected in races of this nature. I’ll leave it to you and the market, about two minutes before the off. Unnamed favourite?

Good luck!

Thoughts after the Christmas races with a view to Cheltenham

December 30, 2024 / / 0 Comments

The Christmas meetings were a mix of imperious and surprisingly disappointing runs by a number of the Cheltenham Festival candidates. It’s worth bearing in mind that favourites will emerge from races in the next month, plus the inevitable withdrawals.

Mullins and Nicholls seem to have problems at the moment and it’s far too early to write off some of their leading candidates. Subject to those caveats, here are some thoughts.

Tuesday

Supreme

10/1 bar and leading candidates out in the coming days. Jasmin De Vaux , Bleu De Vassy and Kel Histoire in the Lawlors of Naas on Sunday.

Arkle

Sir Gino is a deserved 10/11. Watch out for Majborough in the Naas Racing Post Novice Chase on Sunday. So impressive last time out, albeit in a moderate race but jumped like Sir Gino and could be a star in the making.

Champion Hurdle

You could write off Lossiemouth after she was routed by Constitution Hill but that wasn’t her form. This brings in Brighterdaysahead whose stunning performance at Leopardstown yesterday was something to behold. Ruby Walsh was uncharacteristically exuberant about her. This is probably the main reason for this post. Here’s Timeform’s highest rated jumps mares after Sunday:

  • Dawn Run 173
  • Anaglogs Daughter 171
  • Annie Power 170+
  • Brighterdaysahead 167
  • Dubacilla 166
  • Flakey Dove 166
  • Honeysuckle 165
  • Lady Cricket 165
  • Lady Rebecca 165
  • Quevega 164
  • Apple’s Jade 164
  • Asian Maze 162

…and Brighterdaysahead hasn’t even run in a championship race yet!

But…Gordon Elliott and Michael O’Leary say that she’ll run in the Mares’ Hurdle. I think that this all about head games with Mullins and Lossiemouth. My prediction is that Brighterdaysahead will win the Champion Hurdle and Lossiemouth will win the Mares’ Hurdle.

Wednesday

Turners Novices Hurdle

The New Lion was wildly impressive winning the Challow Hurdle. This is not a race that I normally think is a good marker but this was an above average renewal. There’s a possibility that Nicholls’ Regent’s Stroll was disadvantaged by poor yard form but he was very novicey while the winner was exactly the opposite. Watch out for Jasmin De Vaux on Sunday and Potters Charm could run over both of them but it was difficult to know with the fog at Aintree.

Brown Advisory Novice Chase

Ballyburn is the current 4/1 favourite (needing further after his defeat behind Sir Gino) but I prefer The Jukebox Man after his highly impressive win in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase. Racing Post comments in running: “Jumped well, raced in third, went second 9th, pressed leader going best after 3 out, good jump to lead 2 out, soon ridden and went clear, comfortably”.

Impaire Et Passe was a favourite for me last season and won comfortably in the Grade 1 at Limerick on Saturday. Beat some decent horses but I think that the current 14/1 is about right.

Champion Chase

There’s no obvious reason to oppose Jonbon who, to me, represents excellent value at 9/4.

Thursday

Mares Novices Hurdle

It’s too early to call this one. Maughreen is 9/2, 14/1 bar. No entries before the Festival and also entered in the Supreme. One win in a €6500 flat race. Let’s see.

Ryanair Chase

This is the obvious home for Fact To File whose current 7/1 looks like a gift.

Stayers’ Hurdle

Not for the first time recently, I have no view and little interest in this, unless there is a standout performance in the coming weeks.

Gold Cup Day

I was caught out by the Hunters’ Chase (note the absence of “Fox”) being the first quoted for big day. Way too early to predict this one.

Triumph Hurdle

This is quite simple. We haven’t seen the winner out yet this season.

Potato Race

Again, way too early to say, save that The Yellow Clay won’t win.

Gold Cup

Willie Mullins said that Galopin Des Champs‘s win in the Savills Chase was his best yet. I agree. Why would you oppose this horse that hasn’t been given enough credit as a great?

Love Raceshare

Before we go, I want to mention the joy of small investments, specifically with Raceshare. On Sunday we have Golden Maverick with headgear at Chepstow in a soft ground Class 4 that should suit ideally. I bought a share last season as a gift for a good friend who, with her mother, enjoyed a super winning day at Haydock with all the trimmings. Cheltenham and Lingfield were a bit much for the last outings but this is a good chance.

I’ve also bought into Gibbs Island (trained by Tom Lacey Iffraaj/Dream Brook flat OR 84) for around £50 and thoroughly looking forward to his 2m juvenile debut in the 12:35 at Plumpton on Sunday.

Aintree 2024

April 10, 2024 / / 0 Comments

Don’t be fooled by the going reports. I live fairly nearby and the ground is sodden where I am, with flooding throughout Merseyside. It’s going to be heavy everywhere. Expect non-runners, slow finishes and unexpected results. The worst ground is expected on Thursday. Going stick readings are 3.1 Mildmay, 3.3 Hurdles and 3.2 National. The scale is 0-15 with 0 softest and 15 hardest. By Saturday we probably won’t have a repetition of Red Marauder’s 33/1 win by a distance in 2001 when only four finished (two remounted – not allowed any more) but it’s going to be tough going.

https://turftrax.co.uk/going_maps.html

I’m not convinced that Nicky Henderson’s horses are right yet, so all are avoided.

Here are the selections for Thursday and Friday, with Saturday to follow. Friday’s selections may well change based on what the ground reveals on Thursday.

Thursday

1.45 Il Etait Temps (3/1)

2.20 Nurburgring (9/1)

2.55 Gerri Colombe (7/4f); Ahoy Senor (14/1 e/w)

3.30 Impaire Et Passe (13/8f)

4.05 Bennys King (7/1)

4.40 Saint Roi (5/1f) – nap

5.15 Honky Tonk Highway (4/1)

Friday

1.45 Chianti Classico (7/2)

2.20 Sonigino (25/1 e/w)

2.55 Dysart Enos (5/1)

3.30 Pic D’Orhy (100/30) – nap

4.05 Shakem Up’arry (7/1)

4.40 Readin Tommy Wrong (4/1)

5.15 Zeeband (18/1 e/w)

Good luck, more than ever with the going!

On another note, Paddy Power are paying out each way on the first 10, rather than the usual 5 for the Masters. Avoid LIV Golf players who will lack the required incoming form. Remarkably, the forecast there is also dreadful with rain possibly delaying the start.

Aintree 2023 Thursday and Friday

April 12, 2023 / / 0 Comments

The Grand National meeting has just got better and better over the last few years and this glut of Grade 1 races plus three outings over the National fences including, of course, the most watched horse race in the world, is an absolute treat.

As ever, we start with the ground. It’s been very windy and rainy over the last few days. Courtesy of Turftrax, the latest available readings on Wednesday afternoon are 6.0 Chase, 5.9 Hurdle and 4.8 National. For those unfamiliar with going stick readings these equate to good, good to soft on the chase/hurdle courses but, if it stays the same, this would be the softest ground for the National since 2018.

Thursday

13:45 Manifesto Novices’ Chase Grade 1 2m3 1/2f

Banbridge (6/4) missed Cheltenham, apparently but rather oddly on account of the ground. Was second to El Fabiolo in the Irish Arkle. I don’t think that he’s top notch.

Stage Star (7/4) is on a four-timer, having last won the Turners at the Cheltenham Festival, turning over the ill-fated Mighty Potter. I think that he will be even more suited to Aintree and is my selection.

Saint Roi (7/2) is a nearly horse, having been a valiant third behind El Fabiolo and Jonbon in the Arkle. Could well benefit from being upped in trip.

Selection: Exacta Stage Star 1 – Saint Roi 2

14:20 4-y-o Hurdle Grade 1 2m1f

Zenta (11/8f) was third in the Triumph (behind Lossiemouth and Gala Marceau) after two wins. Understandable favourite (and way ahead on Timeform ratings) but I’m looking elsewhere for a bit of value.

Bo Zenith (5/1) was much hyped but flopped when 3rd of 4 in a modest Class 3 at Sandown in January (went off at 4/11f). He followed with wins in a Class 2 and Class 3 at Haydock and Stratford against nothing special and I think that this is a tall order.

My selection is Nusret (5/1) for Joseph O’Brien. The double green of Munir/Souede are having a fantastic season, having obviously bought very well in the last few years (e.g. El Fabiolo). Ground and course should be ideal for this winner of the Adonis last time out at Kempton, beating Scriptwriter among others.

Selection: Nusret

14:55 Aintree Bowl Grade 1 3m1f

The big news in this race is that Bravemansgame has been ruled out because of an ownership issue, following an intervention by the Financial Conduct Authority. Co-owner John Dance owns Wealthtek which trades as Vertem Asset Management (as in the Vertem Futurity which is one of the top 2-y-o races of the season). The Racing Post has reported that the forced withdrawal of the horse follows a court order, with the company in special administration.

That leaves four serious contenders from the five remaining runners.

Shishkin (2/1f) is one of the best chasers of the last few years but has run a few stinkers. He’s on a mission to prove himself over longer distances after winning the Arkle in 2021. He won the Desert Orchid at Kempton and followed that up with a win in the Clarence House at Ascot, but was pulled up in the 2022 Champion Chase. He was third in the Tingle Creek last December and was then imperious over 2m5f in the Ascot Chase. However, he was a never threatening second to a resurgent Envoi Allen in the Ryanair and that run couldn’t fill you with confidence. This is a further extension in distance and I’m not convinced that he’s the same horse that he was a couple of seasons ago.

A Plus Tard (9/4) is a very appealing option after his excellent return to form in the Gold Cup (until badly hampered) and having been one of the best winners of the blue riband in recent years in 2022. There’s every reason to believe that the flop in the Betfair Chase last November was a one off and, if you disregard that, he could well benefit from the last outing and win this easily.

Ahoy Senor (5/2) won really well here last year (in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase) and there’s a good case to be made for both ground and course leading to a repeat. He’s the baddie in the Gold Cup, having led well before falling, bringing down Sounds Russian and badly hampering A Plus Tard. He’s a good old-fashioned chaser and I may be going over a cliff with him but I think that he’s still not yet shown his best, if he can only put in a clear round.

Conflated (6/1) has won Grade 1s and was a creditable third in the Gold Cup but I see him at best placed in this.

Selection: Yes, I know, but I’m going with Ahoy Senor again.

15:30 Aintree Hurdle Grade 1 2m4f

Time to watch probably the best National Hunt horse of recent years. Constitution Hill (1/9f) is on course to be one of the highest rated jumps horses ever and the price (16/1 bar) is absolutely right. It will be fascinating to see if he goes chasing next season and there is even talk of him running in the Ascot Gold Cup. We are being treated by seeing him here.

Selection: No bet, just watch and enjoy.

16:05 Foxhunters’ Chase 2m5f

The first race over the National fences, this is another one just to watch for me. The favourite, Winged Leader (7/2f) has excellent credentials with all the right connections and form. Latenightpass (5/1) won this last year and Famous Clermont is another to consider.

Selection: Winged Leader

16:40 Red Rum Chase Class 1 1m7 1/2f

This is a bit of a lottery which could well throw up a long odds winner. Favourite Douglas Talking (3/1) is progressive but I might have a few quid on Third Time Lucki (5/1) and Mackenberg (20/1) for Donald McCain.

Selections: Third Time Lucki and Mackenberg (e/w)

17:15 Mares’ Bumper Grade 2 2m1f

As ever, my advice is to watch the market and unnamed favourite is a sensible option. Understandably, there’s very little to go on. The top two in the market make most appeal. Seeyouinmydreams (11/4f) was bought for 235,000 guineas following a point to point win in Ireland and won easily for Paul Nicholls on her rules debut. Jolie Coeur Allen (4/1) is even harder to fathom, having come second on her only outing in a bumper at Fontainebleau, but having been bought for J P McManus and placed with Willie Mullins. I’m currently inclined towards the latter but I’ll wait to see them in the preliminaries before making my decision.

Friday

Well, there’s no point in denying it; Friday is a pale shadow of the preceding day’s card. Nonetheless, we have four Grade 1s plus the professional jockeys over the National fences and, in the background, Ladies’ Day and no doubt a few developing stories about the National.

13:45 Mildmay Novices’ Chase Grade 1 3m1f

I don’t see any reason to look beyond Gerri Colombe (4/5f) in this. Won his first seven races under Rules and was only beaten by a short head in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham, beating Bronn who was third. I Am Maximus was fourth and subsequently won the Irish National last Monday.

Selection: Gerri Colombe

14:20 Handicap Hurdle Class 1 2m4f

Camprond (11/2f) is an in and out horse returning after possibly his best performance when third in the Coral Cup. However, this is the sort of race that can produce a longer odds winner (4/1, 22/1, 8/1, 20/1, 10/1 in the last five years) and I’m with Sonigino (20/1) for Paul Nicholls/Harry Cobden/Sir Alex Ferguson and friends. He’s won three from four following wind surgery and was considered a top prospect who still has the potential for significant improvement.

Selection: Sonigino (e/w)

14:55 Top Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 2m 1/2f

Inthepocket (4/1) cost £290k for J McManus and was fourth in the Supreme. He’s comfortably Timeform top rated (164). Found A Fifty (7/2f) (156p) doesn’t deserve his position at the head of the market based on his form to date.

I’m more interested in the mare Luccia (4/1) with her 7lb allowance and eye-catching win at Exeter before being too keen in the Dawn Run at the Festival.

Tahmuras (12/1) flopped in the Supreme but was an impressive winner of the Tolworth when still green. Could build well on that.

Selection: Luccia

15:30 Melling Chase Grade 1 2m 4f

I was a fan of Pic D’Orhy (2/1f) as soon as he moved from Guillaume Macaire to Paul Nicholls in 2019. He’s taken his time. but notable wins include the Betfair Hurdle in 2020, the Noel Novices’ Chase at Newbury in 2021, the Pendil at Kempton in 2022, the Peterborough Chase last December, the Silviniaco Conti Chase in January, before his second behind Shishkin in the Ascot Chase in February. I’m all over him to bag his first Grade 1 here. Fakir D’Oudairies was third to him in the Ascot Chase and is in and out whereas my selection has the perfect profile to win this and progress further.

Selection: Pic D’Orhy

16:05 Topham Chase 2m5f

It’s 7/1 the field for the second race over the National fences. Willie Mullins has the first four in the weights with Haut En Couleurs, Burrows Saint, Ciel De Neige and Fan De Blues. I’m with the next in the weights, Final Orders (8/1), who I backed in the Grand Annual at the Festival when on a six-timer and was fifth.

Favourite Ashtown Lad (5/1) won the Becher Chase, beating Gesskille (15/2) and the distance is a big plus for the former, who has been laid out for this. However, he was taken out very wide in the race and may not benefit from a large and crowded field.

Haut En Couleurs (9/1) is probably the best horse in the race (5th in the Plate at the Festival ahead of Il Ridoto) but much will depend on how he takes to the fences.

Quel Destin (20/1) was destined to be a top performer and I’ve followed him for years. He’s very gutsy and I fancy him for a place.

Selections: Final Orders (win); Quel Destin (place)

16:40 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 3m 1/2f

This is an easy Grade 1 to win. I’m a bit confused because I’d heard that current favourite Stay Away Fay (5/2f) was going to Punchestown. If he runs here, he’s entitled to follow up after winning the Albert Bartlett. It’s a concern that it was a tough and probably draining race.

The only main opposition in my view is second favourite Absolute Notions (100/30), a very impressive second to Good Land in the Nathaniel Lacy at the Dublin Racing Festival, who missed the Festival and could be well primed for this.

Selection: Absolute Notions

17:15 Conditionals and Amateurs Handicap Hurdle 2m 1/2f

The market isn’t up for this one yet so I’ll wait and see. Go Dante is the 15/2 forecast favourite and I might have a look at Washington (forecast 12/1).

Good luck!

Great racing this weekend

October 28, 2021 / / 1 Comment

We have some great National Hunt racing to look forward to over the next few days with the declarations ensuring that this an even better weekend than usual.

This is as much a reminder for me as anything so here goes:

Friday

Wetherby

14:05 Ahoy Senior (10/11) (one of the best horses Lucinda Russell has had for a while)

15:15 Porticello (11/8) (Gary Moore top prospect); Too Friendly (100/30); Sacre Pierre (6/1)

15:50 Magic Saint (9/2); Good Boy Bobby (11/4)

16:25 Larch Hill (9/2)

Uttoxeter

14:48 Flic Ou Voyou (9/4) (chasing debut for Nicholls)

Down Royal

13:10 Hollow Games (1/4) (a Ballymore prospect for G Elliott)

13:45 Party Central (13/8) (another top prospect for Eliott)

14:20 Zanahiyr (4/9) (leading Cheltenham candidate last season and potentially more to come – really should win this)

16:05 Arahecan (is the RP nap at 10/1)

16:35 The Mediator (5/6) (unraced for G Elliott)

Saturday

Down Royal

13:05 Fil Dor (debut for G Elliott – watch the market)

13:40 Mighty Potter (yet another interesting debutant for Elliott)

14:15 Charli Parcs (20/1) (not expecting anything from him (now with Aidan Howard) but may improve on 5th last time out). Hearts Are Trumps (22/1) is another who has lost his way but might just run into a place.

14:50 I favour a fresh Frodon (9/2) over Gold Cup winner Minella Indo (evens) at this early stage in the season.

15:25 Envoi Allen (4/11) should win this easily.

Wetherby

13:20 Gericault Rouge (7/2) a likely improver

13:55 Molly Ollys Wishes (100/30) is a confident selection and could have an exciting season ahead.

14:20 Paisley Park (9/4); Thomas Darby (7/2); Master Tommytucker (5/1 and interesting over hurdles). Take your pick.

15:05 Cyrname (6/5) on a redemption mission; Shan Blue (5/1); Fusil Raffles (13/2) my selection

Ascot

14:10 Boothill (7/2) an unbeaten and potentially exciting prospect

14:45 Editeur Du Gite (100/30) won the Red Rum and was followed home by Sully D’oc AA (6/1). A forecast for a repeat?

15:20 Vinndication (3/1) one to watch

Sunday

We await the declarations but races of interest include:

Carlisle 14:00 Chantry House, Fiddlerontheroof, Sporting John

Cork 14:25 Beacon Edge, Bleu Berry, Diol Ker, Run Wild Fred

Cork 15:00 Eleazar Des Neiges, Agent Boru

Overall, we’ll know a lot more after the weekend but it’s worth bearing in mind that, in Ireland, the Down Royal meeting tends to be a benefit for Gordon Elliott, particularly for debutants or near-debutants and WP tends to avoid it. My most interesting candidates?

Ahoy Senior

Porticello

Flic Ou Voyou

Hollow Games

Frodon

Envoi Allen

Molly Ollys Wishes

Fusil Raffles

Boothill

Chantry House

What a treat in prospect! Just for fun, a 9 fold on the Friday and Saturday selections would deliver a 10,000/1 return. Yes, of course I’ve done it! Much better odds than the Lottery.

I’ve also done:

Ahoy Senior, Porticello, Flic Ou Voyou, Hollow Games, Frodon, Envoi Allen and Fusil Raffles accumulator at 679/1

Ahoy Senior, Porticello, Hollow Games, Frodon, Envoi Allen and Fusil Raffles accumulator at 226/1

Ahoy Senior, Porticello, Frodon and Envoi Allen as a Lucky 15 for a potential return of £117.49.

Let’s hope that the first two at Wetherby on Friday deliver.

Good luck!

Aintree 2021 – Thursday

April 7, 2021 / / 0 Comments

It’s been a busy week so just time for a few quick selections this evening.

13:45 Manifesto Novices’ Chase – Grade 1 – 2m 4f

A great race to get us under way and I prefer Fusil Raffles*** (3/1) who was an excellent second to Chantry House and ahead of Asterion Forlonge, subsequent winner Chatham Street Lad and Shan Blue in the Marsh. Ground should be fine. I’m yet to be convinced about much-touted Hitman who fell in the Scilly Isles and was beaten by Allmankind in the Henry VIII. The Shunter is taking a big step up and Eldorado Allen has a second in the Arkle to his name but was flattered by that result among the also rans behind Shishkin. Umbrigado at 11/1 is worth a look for a place but bear in mind that there are only 7 runners, therefore first two only unless you get an offer from the bookies (of which there will be many available for the first race).

14:20 Doom Bar Juvenile Hurdle – Grade 1 – 2m 209y

This is between to first two in the market and Monmiral**** (11/10) is a confident choice ahead of Adagio. The selection bypassed Cheltenham and should be ideally set up for this. Adagio was a fine second in the Triumph but this is after the Lord Mayor’s Ball and he may not yet have fully recovered from that effort.

14:50 Betway Bowl – Grade 1 – 3m 210y

Clan Des Obeaux*** (3/1) was the coming Gold Cup champion for a couple of seasons but it turned out that the blue riband at Cheltenham wasn’t suited to him. However he won the King George in 2018 and 2019 and his form this year is 232. This race is ideal for him to bag a Grade 1 this season and I’m surprised at the generous price. First time cheekpieces is an added bonus.

He’s also a class apart from the opposition. Waiting Patiently is a fine horse but not just quite at the top level (although this course will suit). Tiger Roll just shouldn’t be in this race. He could spring a surprise but could equally be tailed off quite early. Admittedly, I was surprised by his return to form in the Cross Country but this is an entirely different proposition. Clondaw Castle is my idea of the second in the race. Native River doesn’t have his ground and had a hard race when fourth in the Gold Cup. Mister Fisher could just run into a place but jumping is a big question mark.

15:25 Aintree Hurdle – Grade 1 – 2m 4f

This is often described as the middle distance hurdle race that is missing from the Cheltenham Festival and is normally a race of the highest quality. This isn’t the greatest renewal. I’m disappointed that Jason The Militant** (100/30f) is the new favourite because I was looking for a bit of value. Nonetheless, he remains my selection. Abacadabras is a decent horse who fell early on in the Champion Hurdle but this is the first attempt beyond 2m and I’m not sure that it will suit. Mcfabulous is a talking horse who is yet to prove his credentials at the highest level. Brewin’upastorm could run into a place. Buveur D’air is the Henderson hurdling equivalent of Altior over fences – obviously the season has not gone to plan and best watched.

Song For Someone** (12/1 e/w) is a horse that I added to my “to follow” list long before he blossomed. He started this season with two Grade 2s at Ascot and Cheltenham, before being beaten by Goshen in the Kingwell. I’m willing to forgive him that and, on that basis, it’s a very close call between him and the selection. Reverse forecast? Bet placed.

16:05 Foxhunters’ Chase – National course – 2m 5f

Thank goodness that the amateurs are back! I won’t necessarily have a bet but, if I do, I’ll be opposing Billaway who had a hard race at Cheltenham and may not be quite ready for this. He also has a tendency to fall just short in the big races. Sametegal is a veteran chaser who is here on this basis but I don’t think that he’s the obvious choice, albeit that he’s proven over the fences. Cat Tiger* (13/2) is, for me, a better proposition who, at just 7 years old, could be on the start of an Aintree roll (note the choice of word and the second name of the horse) for Corinthian and very competent jockey David Maxwell and trainer Paul Nicholls.

Of the remainder, Jamie Codd was invited to extol the virtues of Mighty Stowaway at a preview night yesterday evening and didn’t. For old times’ sake but with no confidence I’d be delighted to see 13-y-o Ucello Conti thereabouts but I’m afraid that PU is more likely.

16:40 Red Rum Handicap Chase – Grade 3 – 1m 7f

This often turns up a long odds winner. On straight form, second favourite Getaway Trump should win and has the right course but he’s inconsistent, while not being campaigned at the highest level. Editeur Du Gite for the Moores should like the course and ground but, if I do have a bet, it will be on Dostal Phil* (16/1 e/w), an 8-y-o for Philip Hobbs, who could be turning into a half decent chaser. Sully D’oc AA is respected as place option.

17:15 Mares’ Bumper – Grade 2 – 2m 209y

I wouldn’t normally be paying too much attention to a race like this but we have a star on show in the shape of Eileendover**** (10/11f). She’s a dual purpose horse who could well be seen at Royal Ascot. She’s also well ahead of this field in an ideal race on ideal ground and the only serious threat is Elle Est Belle who I backed when she was third in the Champion Bumper. It’s currently 14/1 the field after the first two in the market and the only other one of note is Miss Lamb who was comfortably beaten by Eileendover at Market Rasen.

So, here is the lowdown:

1.45 Fusil Raffles

2.20 Monmiral

2.50 Clan Des Obeaux

3.25 Jason The Militant

4.05 Cat Tiger

4.40 Dostal Phil

5.15 Eileendover

Lucky 15:

Fusil Raffles

Monmiral

Clan Des Obeaux

Eileendover

A £30 Lucky 15 could deliver £415.21. Bet placed.

I’m now going to watch the Road To Aintree with Lydia Hislop and Ruby Walsh on Racing TV to see what they think and probably find that I’m changing my mind!

Good luck!

Footpad is in a class of his own at Gowran

A potentially great weekend in prospect

November 8, 2018 / / 0 Comments

Friday

Undoubtedly the highlight of Friday’s racing is Kalashnikov‘s chasing debut in the 2.00 at Warwick. 1/3 is a fair price against three markedly inferior opponents. I wouldn’t often be tempted at a price like this but he has reportedly schooled well over fences (always looked like a chaser in the making) and might just stake the Betfair balance on this one to get things started.

Another of interest but at prohibitive odds is dual bumper winner Windsor Avenue (at 2/5) in the 1.05 at Hexham. This is the time of year when very short odds progressive horses are given easy outings and this one could easily be combined with Kalashnikov for a modest return on a double. A £10 double will return a little over £18. Bet placed, just to make it a little more interesting (my first bet since Aintree’s national meeting).

Saturday

Footpad is in a class of his own at Gowran

Now we’re talking! Saturday’s Naas meeting could be a cracker if some of the main entries are declared.

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I think that we’ll see seriously good bumper horse from last season Blackbow in either the midday maiden hurdle over 2m or the 1.05 maiden over 2m 3f (probably the former) notwithstanding that he won his maiden PTP on good ground over 3m (current going for Naas on Saturday is good).

The Grade 3 Fishery Lane Hurdle at 12.30 could see Saldier (15/8) v Mr Adjudicator (9/4) v Espoir d’Allen (5/2) and Stormy Ireland (6/1). Farclas was entered but it’s reported that he won’t run. Saldier was one of my horses to follow last season but I’m hoping that Stormy Ireland has progressed and that she could be a serious player this season. Her best form is on soft/heavy but she beat good horses on yielding in a listed race over 2m 1f last May.

The Grade B Brown Lad Handicap Hurdle over 2m4f has no less than eight J P McManus entries from a variety of trainers including Jezki, Sire du Berlais, Housesofparliament, Plinth, De Name Escapes Me and Fitzhenry. As matters stand, my preference is for Stooshie who was third last week in a Grade B for Gordon Elliott at Down Royal on good to yielding and will therefore have race fitness on his side.

The Poplar Square Chase (Grade 3) at 2.15 will be my highlight of the day because Willie Mullins has said that this will be Footpad‘s season debut. One of the best horses (and my favourite) last season, the current 1/4 is another fair price but he could be facing some fairly decent opposition in the shape of Saint Calvados and Tombstone. As I said in my last post, I think that this is the season in which he will progress to open company proper stardom and I can’t wait to see another foot perfect performance. 

The 3.25 may feature a few horses that disappointed last season, namely Bleu Berry, Carter McKay, Bacardys and Deal d’Estruval. However, this is a beginners’ chase and could throw up one or more who are now in their element. One to watch with interest.

Over the water, the fare is more modest with, putting aside the flat meeting at Doncaster, interest being focused on Wincanton’s big day and some fairly average racing at Aintree.

The Wincanton feature Badger Ales Chase has attracted a pretty rum bunch. I don’t have any particular fancies in this and I suspect that the field could cut up severely so it’s one to wait and see with. 

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The Grade 2 Rising Stars Novices’ Chase (2.25) at Wincanton has one of the poorest set of entries (let alone declarations) for a race at this level that I’ve seen for a long time, which I suspect is down to the predicted good to firm ground. The Elite Hurdle (3.00) is a bit better but I won’t be surprised if We Have A Dream and Verdana Blue are both pulled by Nicky Henderson, in which case Redicean (with recent decent form) should win.

Aintree is predicting good, good to soft in places on the chase course, so we have a better chance of seeing some half decent horses. 

Terrefort would be one to watch in the 1.35 Pertemps qualifier but I don’t really see the point of running him in a race like this when his future is manifestly over fences. He’s entered in the intermediate chase at Sandown on Sunday which seems far more likely as a prep for the Ladbroke (Hennessy) Chase on 1 December.

The 2m 4f hurdle at 2.10 could be a decent race but I’m afraid that I suspect that the potentially interesting participants probably won’t turn up.

The feature handicap chase at 2.40 could turn out to be a fair event but doesn’t feature any horses at the entry stage that I’d see as ones to get excited about. When are we going to get 48 hour entries for all the big national hunt races? Well, we are for next year’s Cheltenham Festival thank goodness!

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I’ll be interested in Bun Doran if he turns up for the the 3.20 handicap chase and the bumper at 3.55 could turn out to be a good pointer but I have no idea which one may prevail.

Sunday

The top racing continues at Navan on Sunday. In the 1.05 I’ll be with WP’s Quick Grabim at an attractive 11/8 (current co-favourite with Felix Desjy) and the Lismullen Hurdle (1.35) could be a cracker with too many good horses to mention so let’s see which ones turn up. The Fortria Chase is, on its face, right up to standard but will depend very much on which ones run the day before in the 2.15 at Naas. The beginners’ chase at 2.40 could feature top hurdler Mengli Khan, another who could be progressing to his natural metier.

Meanwhile at Sandown I’ll love the chasers tackling the railway fences in a taster for what the season is to bring. Most of the fields are too big to pass any comment on but the intermediate chase (2.20) definitely has the makings of being the highlight. Daryl Jacob has been named as the jockey for Terrefort which makes me think that this is his target and he could face decent opposition in the shape of Elegant Escape, Coo Star Sivola, Thomas Patrick, Barney Dwan and Ms Parfois. A race to savour! Let’s hope that they stand their ground.

Boxing

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Although national hunt racing is my favourite sport, boxing comes a close second and I can’t wait for Oleksandr Usyk v Tony Bellew on Saturday. This is an absolutely top class fight. I’ve watched Bellew more or less from the start of his career and his progression is all about heart and determination. He’s not the best technically (Usyk could well be) but… Bellew is on a nine times winning streak and his last loss was to Haitian superstar Adonis Stevenson in 2013. His last five fights have all been wins against the odds. This is Bellew’s last fight and he has promised to give it his all and leave absolutely everything in the ring. Usyk is very impressive and unbeaten but his biggest win was against a lacklustre Marco Huck (suspended indefinitely by the New Jersey Athletic Control Board) and who lost in his previous fight against Mairis Briedes who is also fighting Saturday (in Chicago against a no mark opponent). For the record I know that others might take the view that his World Boxing Super Series win against Murat Gassiev was his best but I watched that fight and Gassiev was valiant but a hyped and lesser opponent (on form). All of that taken into account the current 5/1 on Usyk against 5/1 against Bellew is crazy! I see it as about a 2/1 on Usyk, 7/4 against Bellew, 20/1 the draw. As such the 5/1 is possibly the best bet of the weekend.

On the undercard, Scotty Cardle against “The Rickster” Ricky Burns is a hastily convened fight which, for me, can have only one outcome: an easy win inside the distance for Ricky. 1/4 is absolutely fair and takeable to bolster the funds for the big one.

Good luck and enjoy!

Grand National Day 2018

April 14, 2018 / / 0 Comments

Bloody Danny Kirwan! It sounds like I’m telling off someone I know but, in fact, he was the disappointing flop in the Bumper, which was the last race at Aintree today. I could say the same about Chef des Obeaux, but Terrefort’s win meant that I ended the day level. Not bad when the results delivered 10/1, 14/1, 3/1, 11/1, 14/1,6/4f and 25/1. And that’s the message from today. The winners were, against standard, 28.6 seconds slow, 22.8s, 49.9s, 30.5s, 29.6s, 40.8s and 36s. This is proper testing ground and it’s much more testing than it appears on TV. In other words, the soft ground is very relevant.

This is the Turftrax measure from this morning. The message is that the ground is much more testing than it looks and that may well have contributed to some of Friday’s results. Minella Rocco, Vicente and Beeves have been ruled out of the National, all because of the soft ground and here’s the forecast for tomorrow:

There is no more rain forecast but it will remain overcast with no wind so it’s reasonable to assume that we should work on the basis that the ground will dry out a bit, but remain, as I said last Monday, soft (arguably heavy) all round. That means that you should be very cautious with your bets.

This preview would not be complete without my back garden assessment of the ground! And here it (…was). Apparently it’s too big a file to download so the message is that it’s trés souple (i.e. very soft).

Here’s Bryony Frost, working out her route with dad, Jimmy Frost, winner of the National on Little Polveir (1989):

I think that she will complete on Milansbar but I can’t see him as the winner.

So, on to the races:

1.45 Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 3m 1/2f

Do not bet in this race!

So, this is a lottery. I’m going to choose some of the horses that I’ve liked during the season but without any confidence! Accordingly, please don’t follow them. They are: Debece* (9/1) and Connetable* (14/1). I fully expect a 33/1 winner of this race and I ave no idea which one it will be.

2.25 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 4f

I think that we should back Kildisart (16/1) in this one. Another Munir/Soude option with Daryl Jacob on board. He won the Silver Plate, beating Zubayr and Mongeg Theatre.

3.00 Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 2m (Mildmay)

Petit Mouchoir (8/15) (little hankie) is comfortably the best in this one. I can see this one dominating the field. The current 4/7 is entirely fair.

3.40 Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f (Mildmay)

I have no strong view about this race. If you need a placepot option I’d go for Thomas Patrick (9/2).

4.20 Ryanair Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m 1/2f

I’ll go with Sam Spinner (5/4) for the selection but I doubt that I’ll be betting. I’ve just taken a wander outside and it’s raining again.

5.15 The Grand National (Grade 3) 4m 2 1/2f (Grand National)

So, this is the big one. I don’t have a strong view and, on balance, I’ll go with Ucello Conti at an appealing 18/1. Gordon Elliott thinks that he is in peak form and that will do for me

6.20 Conditionals and Amateurs’ Handicap Hurdle 2m 1/2f

Let’s face it, you won’t be betting in this race unless your National bets have gone west! If so, follow the Racing Post and have a go with Maquisard at 12/1 who is by some way the most progressive in this field.

Aintree Friday

April 12, 2018 / / 0 Comments

Well, Thursday is best forgotten, with a blank sheet. Bristol de Mai ran really well but the only result to take from the selections was Clan des Obeaux’s third place.

So, on to another day and a really hard card. I think I maybe overthought Thursday’s racing so I’m going to make quick selections this evening and be done with. Friday’s card has to rank as one of the poorest for several years and has the potential to produce some long shot winners.

The ground turned out to be slow, but nowhere near as bad as it might have been.

1.45 Alder Hey Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 4f

Zubayr* (12/1 e/w)

I have no strong view about this race so the selection is really just for the sake of putting one up.

2.20 Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 1/2f

Global Citizen** (9/4)

Global Citizen has been saved for this race and was a very impressive winner of the Dovecote Hurdle at Kempton. He should be well ahead of the rest but others to look out for are Vision des Flos (5/1) and, if he’s got over his heavy fall in the Supreme, Slate House (11/1)

2.50 Betway Mildmay Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 3m 1f (Mildmay)

Terrefort** (7/2)

I think that Black Corton may have boiled over after a long campaign but I’d love to see him take this one with the excellent Bryony Frost (a winner at Taunton today) on board. The pair get on very well but he’s not had a break since last summer.

Others of note are Terrefort, winner of the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase and second in the JLT, Coo Star Sivola, winner of the Ultima, Ms Parfois, only just beaten in the National Hunt Chase (but had a hard race) and Elegant Escape, third in the RSA (ahead of Black Corton).

The RSA is renowned for leaving a mark on novices and, on balance, I’m siding with Terrefort

3.25 JLT Melling Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f (Mildmay)

Min**** (11/8)

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For a £250,000 race, this would normally attract a better field. In my view it’s down to Min, a gallant second to Altior in the Champion Chase, and Balko des Flos, winner of the Ryanair. I think that Min is comfortably the best and he is therefore my nap at a very appealing 11/8.

4.05 Topham Chase (Grade 3) 2m 5f (Grand National)

I won’t be having a bet in this second outing of the week over the National course because, to me, none of the runners make obvious appeal. I think that this race could throw up a long odds winner and I’ve no idea which one it might be. 11/1 the field is, in my view, about right.

4.40 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m 1/2f

Chef des Obeaux** (10/1)

I’ve decided to overlook the poor showing of Chef des Obeaux in the Albert Bartlett and, if that was just an off day, the 10/1 on offer is great value. The second and third in that race, Ok Corral and Santini are respected but I think that an on song Chef des Obeaux can take both of them.

5.15 Bumper (Grade 2) 2m 1f

Danny Kirwan*** (7/4)

I watched Danny Kirwan’s win at Kempton in February and was seriously impressed, deciding at the time that I would definitely follow him. The price (7/4) shows that I was clearly not alone. A repeat of along the lines of that performance should see him take this fairly comfortably.

 

Good luck!

Aintree Thursday

April 11, 2018 / / 0 Comments

Our first stop has to be, as usual, the ground. I’ve been noting on Twitter the unusual deluge in the last few days and the going stick reading on the Mildmay course on Tuesday was 4.1 which is apparently the lowest (i.e. softest) reading in recent years (the National course was 3.7). On Wednesday afternoon the readings were 5.4 on the Mildmay, 5 on the hurdles and 4.2 on the National courses. So what does that mean? The going stick ranges from 0 (beyond waterlogged) to 15 (a tarmac road) and the vast majority of readings are in a range from 5-10. Here’s what matters. Based on thousands of readings the mean for heavy is 5.2, soft 6.0, good to soft 6.8 and good 7.7. Clerks of the courses tend to suggest that the ground is better than the readings suggest (and can often be right). Today has been dry; a little rain is forecast overnight, but there has been no drying wind and it’s been overcast all day. I’m sticking with my view that, overall, it will be soft and adding that it will be heavy in places on the National course.

Here’s the view from the Met Office:

So, in summary, I’m taking the view that we should look for confirmed soft ground horses and bear in mind that the ground will churn up as the week progresses.

1.45 Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 2m4f (Mildmay)

Cyrname*** (9/4)

Embed from Getty ImagesThis is a poor Grade 1 and my selection process has been based on which horses I least dislike. Although he’s been favourite until just now (on Wednesday evening) I don’t like Brain Power. This course is likely to suit him better than Cheltenham, but he had a hard race in the Arkle, picking up the pieces when 14l behind Footpad, and is not guaranteed to get round. I can’t have Finian’s Oscar under any circumstances and Modus is not a Grade 1 horse, even in this company. Rene’s Girl would have to improve a lot but could do so. She jumps well and has the half a stone mares’ allowance which could be important on this ground. An each way chance at a rapidly shortened 6/1.

However, Cyrname looks all over the winner to me. He swerved Cheltenham, has had a decent break (last out on 24 February), and has good form (including on soft) on flat tracks. He was beaten by just a neck by the very promising Terrefort over the same distance in the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase. Timeform have him him level with Brain Power on 174 but with the all important “small p”.

2.20 Doom Bar 4-y-o Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 1f

Apple’s Shakira***** (9/4)

Beau Gosse** (18/1 e/w)

Embed from Getty ImagesNow this is an intriguing race, won in 2016 by Apple’s Jade (maybe you can see where I’m going!). Regular readers know that I have keenly followed Apple’s Shakira all season and she was included in my top three bets for Cheltenham, only to finish fourth in the Triumph (the only blot on her copybook). She was far too keen in that race and has a hood on for this outing. I think that Barry Geraghty will have realised from the Triumph that she needs to be held up and the evidence now shows that she certainly needs to be. She also has form on soft ground and has the potentially all important 7lb mares’ allowance.

We Have A Dream is on a five timer but hasn’t beaten much and that leads me on to my reference to this race being intriguing. As the blog demonstrates, I’m very interested in French racing and Guillaume Macaire is bringing Beau Gosse here, notwithstanding that he is in the same ownership (Munir/Souede) as We Have A Dream. There is no way that he’s here as a pacemaker for We Have A Dream and it’s a long old hike from Royan (not that far from our house in south west France). He was well beaten in the Adonis Hurdle but has listed winning form on trés souple at Auteuil and, for me, has an outstanding each way chance.

2.50 Betway Bowl Chase (Grade 1) 3m 1f (Mildmay)

Bristol de Mai*** (11/2)

Clan des Obeaux* (14/1)

Embed from Getty ImagesSometimes you have to keep the faith and that is what I’m doing with my selection in this one. I think that it was absolutely the right thing to do to avoid Cheltenham with Bristol de Mai and he has a tendency to run well after a break (75 days). Haydock used to be renowned as an Aintree trial course (albeit for the National course and with stiff fences – until they were unforgivably taken away) but it is a park course renowned for its testing ground and Bristol de Mai excelled in one of the performances of the season when winning the Betfair Chase on heavy ground by a staggering 57 lengths (beat Cue Card, Outlander and Tea for Two). It’s too easy to say that he’s just a Haydock specialist. He’s a classy horse with a gruelling pace on at least soft ground and this should suit him down to the ground (no pun intended).

Might Bite had a hard race behind Native River in the Gold Cup and, with a few notable exceptions, not many Gold Cup horses do well for the remainder of the season. There is also the famous quirk of this horse to run all over the place. Take a look at the featured image in this post. There is loads of room for him to take a wander over the last two furlongs.

Embed from Getty ImagesAs for the places, I really like Clan des Obeaux. He has great form, lots of room for improvement as a 6-y-o, and could be on his way to being a championship contender. I think that he’s nailed on for a place.

3.25 Betway Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 4f

Cyrius Darius* (22/1 e/w)

Right, well let’s get this out of the way, I don’t like Supasundae. 2m 4f is undoubtedly better for him than 3m but the Stayers’ Hurdle was no classic renewal and his recent form is more down to the failings of his opponents than establishing him as a Grade 1 performer. The New One and My Tent Or Yours have been great and I was very close to selecting the latter for a place. However, I’m firmly of the view that they’ve had their best days.

Embed from Getty ImagesSo, this is a race that is crying out for a progressive horse and that one, for me, is Cyrus Darius. From a northern yard, he was thought to be good enough to run in the 2017 Champion Hurdle (finished last of those that completed). He didn’t blossom when sent chasing but won last time out over hurdles in the Morebattle at Kelso, beating among others, 6/4f Chti Balko. He likes flat tracks and has winning course form.

I would have been interested in Diakali, had not W P Mullins unloaded him and he’s well and truly in at the deep end on his first outing for Gary Moore.

4.05 Foxhunters’ Chase 2m 5f (Grand National)

Unioniste** (12/1 e/w)

So, who is riding which horses? That’s very often the key to this one. Jamie Codd is riding Grand Vision (9/2) for Colin Tizzard, Nina Carberry is riding On The Fringe (9/1), Derek O’Connor is riding Balnasflow (5/1), David Maxwell is riding Unioniste (12/1) and Sam Waley-Cohen is riding Wonderful Charm (7/1).

Let’s get On The Fringe out of the way. He’s been a fine horse but is a 13-y-o and has no form to speak of this season. Grand Vision has never faced the National fences and had a hardish run in the Cheltenham Foxhunters’. Balnasflow has been frequently touted for races of this nature but is becoming a bit of a nearly horse and Wonderful Charm flopped in the Foxhunters’.

Embed from Getty ImagesAdopting the strategy of bet-lose-repeat I’m going again with Unioniste. The course is a concern but he’s only a 10-y-o and was by far the classiest of these in his earlier years. He was 10th in the Foxhunters’ but has followed up with a win.

I have to give a mention to Distime (16/1) who has course form and is bringing good pointing form into this race.

4.40 Red Rum Chase (Grade 3) 2m (Mildmay)

Bun Doran* (8/1 e/w)

I doubt very much that I will have a bet in this race. I selected Theinval for the Grand Annual but if the ground is as soft as I expect, I can’t have him, taking into account in particular that his last outing was undoubtedly the season’s target.

Everyone seems to be with King’s Socks, with the prevailing view that the drop in trip will suit. However, it can’t be avoided that David Pipe has had a shockingly bad season.

I’ve been here before (like Unioniste in the last race) but I like Bun Doran, who is a consistent performer, was third in this race last year (Theinval was second) and ran well on soft when second to Gino Trail at Cheltenham last December, with Bentelimar third, another that appeals (albeit modestly).

5.15 Mares’ Bumper (Grade 2) 2m 1f

Dissavril* (13/2)

I’m not going to pretend that I have any great knowledge about these horses. I know that Paul Nicholls rates Posh Trish but, if I’m inclined to have a go, it will be on Dissavril, who seems to me to have a lot of potential.

 

Good luck!

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