Category: Aintree (Page 2 of 5)

So it is now upon us. Undoubtedly, even by recent very high standards, the best renewal of the Aintree Festival for many years and therefore probably the best ever across the three days.

There is a perfect balance between the graded races and handicaps in which value may lurk – it’s just a matter of finding it!

In terms of strategy, following the favourites in the big races at Cheltenham turned out to be very profitable. Some of the biggest players, William Hill and Ladbrokes, issued profit warnings after what turned out to be, for them, a disastrous Festival. On the back of this I’m not at all afraid to follow the favourites through all three days. After all, winners are winners whatever the price.

There is a small word of warning and that’s the weather. While I’ve been typing this there have been some very heavy showers on Merseyside and they’re forecast to continue through the night. Aintree drains very well and I’m expecting soft on Thursday and good to soft Friday and Saturday.

1.40 Manifesto Novices’ Chase 2m 4f

Sizing John is the obvious choice and most likely to win. His form is 21122 but the last two were in honourable defeat to Douvan so, taking that into account, he might otherwise be coming to this looking for a five-timer. On that basis 3/1 looks very appealing. However, I’m going to take a chance with Arzal** at 13/2, laid out for this race, with both course and ground likely to suit.

2.15 Anniversary Juvenile Hurdle 2m 1f

Nine runners in this one but no need to look beyond the first three in the Triumph Hurdle. The order in that one was Ivanovich Gorbatov (OR154), Apple’s Jade (OR 145 with the 7lb mares’ allowance repeated here) and Footpad (OR150). Just to be clear this is a graded race and all are off 11st save for Apple’s Jade with 10st 7lbs.

I’m still very reluctant to abandon Footpad*** who may well take better to this course and, for me, represents value at 11/2. Ruby asked him to do an awful lot in the Triumph and I don’t think that the Cheltenham hill suited. A flat tight track might suit a whole lot better but I have to accept that there’s a need for improvement.

If Sceau Royal’s run in the Triumph is regarded as too bad to be true then he also has to be considered, based on previous form. I would prefer to wait and see.

2.50 Betfred Bowl 3m 1f

I was going to call this the feature race of day one but it’s a hard call between this (£150k), the Juvenile Hurdle (£100k) and the Aintree Hurdle (£200k). In any event it’s an excellent race and I’m going to stick with Cue Card**** (5/4). As a result of the fall he wasn’t exerted as much as he might have been in the Gold Cup. Who knows what might have happened if he did’t fall? It doesn’t matter. This course and distance is a better opportunity and don’t forget that he beat the apparently invincible Vautour by a head, albeit right handed, but otherwise on a similar course at Kempton on Boxing Day.

If that was not enough I’ve just re-watched his imperious victory in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last November and I can readily see a similar performance here. Regular readers of the blog will know that I can’t have Don Poli and Djakadam’s last two wins were on heavy ground and undulating courses. The park course horse should have his day (again).

3.25 Aintree Hurdle 2m 4f

As I said in my last blog post I was wrong about Annie Power***** in the Champion Hurdle. She was a stunning winner of the hurdling blue riband and there is every reason to believe that both distance and course here will suit her better. She’s completely unopposable in this race.

There are not many times I would say this but I think that the current 4/7 is good value. She was completely in control in the Champion Hurdle and the manner of her victory meant that she was doing no more than running out within herself at the line. This is a race to sit back and enjoy. Nichols Canyon will also appreciate the longer trip but we can now say with confidence that Annie Power is a division above.

4.05 Fox Hunters’ Chase 2m 5f

The first race over the national fences and the amateurs’ big day. They always charge to the first fence and there is the chance that leading contenders will be caught up with others. However, as I’ve said before, these races are now much better betting propositions than they used to be when the “Corinthians” took their chance with a Heinz variety of horses.

As my very good friend and racing sage Gerry Rooney has pointed out, you won’t go far wrong by focusing on the best amateur jockeys when preparing a short list. Nina Carberry is still suspended and therefore misses this race (she’ll be back on Saturday), so we look for riders like Jamie Codd (On The Fringe), Katie Walsh (Current Event), Marasonnien (Patrick Mullins) and Pacha du Polder (Will Biddick). What to make of Pacha du Polder, Victoria Pendleton’s mount in the Cheltenham equivalent? The horse was fifth after being dropped out (sensibly) and is arguably the best of these based on form prior to going hunting. I heard a very good word for Marasonnien at the excellent Aintree preview with Paul Ferguson and Dan Kelly at Rigbys on Tuesday evening.

I’ve taken another look at the Cheltenham race and the incredibly resolute On The Fringe was very impressive. However, that was a hard race and I’m not sure that the three week gap is enough. Major Malarkey dominated most of the race and the shorter distance and no hill may just be ideal. It’s a very close call but I think that On The Fringe** just edges it for me at 7/4, with a saver on Major Malarkey at 20/1. Jamie Codd’s apparently unlikely victory in the Kim Muir on Cause of Causes was one of the very best rides I’ve seen for some time, amateur or professional, and I’ve no doubt that he’ll get the very best out of the favourite.

4.40 Red Rum Handicap Chase 2m

I’m looking at this only from a placepot perspective and I won’t be surprised if there is a long priced winner. Fayette County could be a good thing and the market reflects that.

However, my preference is for Minella Present* (6/1), back from a longish break, and another apparently laid out for the race. Of the remainder Viconte Du Noyer is a good choice for placepot cover.

5.15 Mares’ Bumper 2m 1f

Well, if you’re still inclined to place a bet by now you’ve either had a very good day or you have a strong view. Hopefully I’ll still have both and in that case I’ll be looking forward to Augusta Kate*** bouncing back from her far from disgraced seventh against the boys in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper. She was another asked to do a lot and they all landed in more or less of a heap.

I’ve taken a view that the hype horse, La Bague Au Roi (translates as The Ring King) may be no more than that! This is Augusta Kate’s fourth race and, against her sex, she enters this unbeaten. Would she be favourite without the Cheltenham race? Undoubtedly. I suspect that she’ll be shorter than the current 7/2 at the off.

Placepot

1.40 1 Arzal; 7 Sizing John

2.15 4 Footpad

2.50 1 Cue Card

3.25 6 Annie Power

4.05 19 On The Fringe; 12 Major Malarkey

4.40 9 Minella Present; 4 Viconte Du Noyer

Good luck!