The Christmas meetings were a mix of imperious and surprisingly disappointing runs by a number of the Cheltenham Festival candidates. It’s worth bearing in mind that favourites will emerge from races in the next month, plus the inevitable withdrawals.
Mullins and Nicholls seem to have problems at the moment and it’s far too early to write off some of their leading candidates. Subject to those caveats, here are some thoughts.
Tuesday
Supreme
10/1 bar and leading candidates out in the coming days. Jasmin De Vaux , Bleu De Vassy and Kel Histoire in the Lawlors of Naas on Sunday.
Arkle
Sir Gino is a deserved 10/11. Watch out for Majborough in the Naas Racing Post Novice Chase on Sunday. So impressive last time out, albeit in a moderate race but jumped like Sir Gino and could be a star in the making.
Champion Hurdle
You could write off Lossiemouth after she was routed by Constitution Hill but that wasn’t her form. This brings in Brighterdaysahead whose stunning performance at Leopardstown yesterday was something to behold. Ruby Walsh was uncharacteristically exuberant about her. This is probably the main reason for this post. Here’s Timeform’s highest rated jumps mares after Sunday:
- Dawn Run 173
- Anaglogs Daughter 171
- Annie Power 170+
- Brighterdaysahead 167
- Dubacilla 166
- Flakey Dove 166
- Honeysuckle 165
- Lady Cricket 165
- Lady Rebecca 165
- Quevega 164
- Apple’s Jade 164
- Asian Maze 162
…and Brighterdaysahead hasn’t even run in a championship race yet!
But…Gordon Elliott and Michael O’Leary say that she’ll run in the Mares’ Hurdle. I think that this all about head games with Mullins and Lossiemouth. My prediction is that Brighterdaysahead will win the Champion Hurdle and Lossiemouth will win the Mares’ Hurdle.
Wednesday
Turners Novices Hurdle
The New Lion was wildly impressive winning the Challow Hurdle. This is not a race that I normally think is a good marker but this was an above average renewal. There’s a possibility that Nicholls’ Regent’s Stroll was disadvantaged by poor yard form but he was very novicey while the winner was exactly the opposite. Watch out for Jasmin De Vaux on Sunday and Potters Charm could run over both of them but it was difficult to know with the fog at Aintree.
Brown Advisory Novice Chase
Ballyburn is the current 4/1 favourite (needing further after his defeat behind Sir Gino) but I prefer The Jukebox Man after his highly impressive win in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase. Racing Post comments in running: “Jumped well, raced in third, went second 9th, pressed leader going best after 3 out, good jump to lead 2 out, soon ridden and went clear, comfortably”.
Impaire Et Passe was a favourite for me last season and won comfortably in the Grade 1 at Limerick on Saturday. Beat some decent horses but I think that the current 14/1 is about right.
Champion Chase
There’s no obvious reason to oppose Jonbon who, to me, represents excellent value at 9/4.
Thursday
Mares Novices Hurdle
It’s too early to call this one. Maughreen is 9/2, 14/1 bar. No entries before the Festival and also entered in the Supreme. One win in a €6500 flat race. Let’s see.
Ryanair Chase
This is the obvious home for Fact To File whose current 7/1 looks like a gift.
Stayers’ Hurdle
Not for the first time recently, I have no view and little interest in this, unless there is a standout performance in the coming weeks.
Gold Cup Day
I was caught out by the Hunters’ Chase (note the absence of “Fox”) being the first quoted for big day. Way too early to predict this one.
Triumph Hurdle
This is quite simple. We haven’t seen the winner out yet this season.
Potato Race
Again, way too early to say, save that The Yellow Clay won’t win.
Gold Cup
Willie Mullins said that Galopin Des Champs‘s win in the Savills Chase was his best yet. I agree. Why would you oppose this horse that hasn’t been given enough credit as a great?
Love Raceshare
Before we go, I want to mention the joy of small investments, specifically with Raceshare. On Sunday we have Golden Maverick with headgear at Chepstow in a soft ground Class 4 that should suit ideally. I bought a share last season as a gift for a good friend who, with her mother, enjoyed a super winning day at Haydock with all the trimmings. Cheltenham and Lingfield were a bit much for the last outings but this is a good chance.
I’ve also bought into Gibbs Island (trained by Tom Lacey Iffraaj/Dream Brook flat OR 84) for around £50 and thoroughly looking forward to his 2m juvenile debut in the 12:35 at Plumpton on Sunday.
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