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Footpad is in a class of his own at Gowran

A potentially great weekend in prospect

November 8, 2018 / / 0 Comments

Friday

Undoubtedly the highlight of Friday’s racing is Kalashnikov‘s chasing debut in the 2.00 at Warwick. 1/3 is a fair price against three markedly inferior opponents. I wouldn’t often be tempted at a price like this but he has reportedly schooled well over fences (always looked like a chaser in the making) and might just stake the Betfair balance on this one to get things started.

Another of interest but at prohibitive odds is dual bumper winner Windsor Avenue (at 2/5) in the 1.05 at Hexham. This is the time of year when very short odds progressive horses are given easy outings and this one could easily be combined with Kalashnikov for a modest return on a double. A £10 double will return a little over £18. Bet placed, just to make it a little more interesting (my first bet since Aintree’s national meeting).

Saturday

Footpad is in a class of his own at Gowran

Now we’re talking! Saturday’s Naas meeting could be a cracker if some of the main entries are declared.

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I think that we’ll see seriously good bumper horse from last season Blackbow in either the midday maiden hurdle over 2m or the 1.05 maiden over 2m 3f (probably the former) notwithstanding that he won his maiden PTP on good ground over 3m (current going for Naas on Saturday is good).

The Grade 3 Fishery Lane Hurdle at 12.30 could see Saldier (15/8) v Mr Adjudicator (9/4) v Espoir d’Allen (5/2) and Stormy Ireland (6/1). Farclas was entered but it’s reported that he won’t run. Saldier was one of my horses to follow last season but I’m hoping that Stormy Ireland has progressed and that she could be a serious player this season. Her best form is on soft/heavy but she beat good horses on yielding in a listed race over 2m 1f last May.

The Grade B Brown Lad Handicap Hurdle over 2m4f has no less than eight J P McManus entries from a variety of trainers including Jezki, Sire du Berlais, Housesofparliament, Plinth, De Name Escapes Me and Fitzhenry. As matters stand, my preference is for Stooshie who was third last week in a Grade B for Gordon Elliott at Down Royal on good to yielding and will therefore have race fitness on his side.

The Poplar Square Chase (Grade 3) at 2.15 will be my highlight of the day because Willie Mullins has said that this will be Footpad‘s season debut. One of the best horses (and my favourite) last season, the current 1/4 is another fair price but he could be facing some fairly decent opposition in the shape of Saint Calvados and Tombstone. As I said in my last post, I think that this is the season in which he will progress to open company proper stardom and I can’t wait to see another foot perfect performance. 

The 3.25 may feature a few horses that disappointed last season, namely Bleu Berry, Carter McKay, Bacardys and Deal d’Estruval. However, this is a beginners’ chase and could throw up one or more who are now in their element. One to watch with interest.

Over the water, the fare is more modest with, putting aside the flat meeting at Doncaster, interest being focused on Wincanton’s big day and some fairly average racing at Aintree.

The Wincanton feature Badger Ales Chase has attracted a pretty rum bunch. I don’t have any particular fancies in this and I suspect that the field could cut up severely so it’s one to wait and see with. 

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The Grade 2 Rising Stars Novices’ Chase (2.25) at Wincanton has one of the poorest set of entries (let alone declarations) for a race at this level that I’ve seen for a long time, which I suspect is down to the predicted good to firm ground. The Elite Hurdle (3.00) is a bit better but I won’t be surprised if We Have A Dream and Verdana Blue are both pulled by Nicky Henderson, in which case Redicean (with recent decent form) should win.

Aintree is predicting good, good to soft in places on the chase course, so we have a better chance of seeing some half decent horses. 

Terrefort would be one to watch in the 1.35 Pertemps qualifier but I don’t really see the point of running him in a race like this when his future is manifestly over fences. He’s entered in the intermediate chase at Sandown on Sunday which seems far more likely as a prep for the Ladbroke (Hennessy) Chase on 1 December.

The 2m 4f hurdle at 2.10 could be a decent race but I’m afraid that I suspect that the potentially interesting participants probably won’t turn up.

The feature handicap chase at 2.40 could turn out to be a fair event but doesn’t feature any horses at the entry stage that I’d see as ones to get excited about. When are we going to get 48 hour entries for all the big national hunt races? Well, we are for next year’s Cheltenham Festival thank goodness!

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I’ll be interested in Bun Doran if he turns up for the the 3.20 handicap chase and the bumper at 3.55 could turn out to be a good pointer but I have no idea which one may prevail.

Sunday

The top racing continues at Navan on Sunday. In the 1.05 I’ll be with WP’s Quick Grabim at an attractive 11/8 (current co-favourite with Felix Desjy) and the Lismullen Hurdle (1.35) could be a cracker with too many good horses to mention so let’s see which ones turn up. The Fortria Chase is, on its face, right up to standard but will depend very much on which ones run the day before in the 2.15 at Naas. The beginners’ chase at 2.40 could feature top hurdler Mengli Khan, another who could be progressing to his natural metier.

Meanwhile at Sandown I’ll love the chasers tackling the railway fences in a taster for what the season is to bring. Most of the fields are too big to pass any comment on but the intermediate chase (2.20) definitely has the makings of being the highlight. Daryl Jacob has been named as the jockey for Terrefort which makes me think that this is his target and he could face decent opposition in the shape of Elegant Escape, Coo Star Sivola, Thomas Patrick, Barney Dwan and Ms Parfois. A race to savour! Let’s hope that they stand their ground.

Boxing

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Although national hunt racing is my favourite sport, boxing comes a close second and I can’t wait for Oleksandr Usyk v Tony Bellew on Saturday. This is an absolutely top class fight. I’ve watched Bellew more or less from the start of his career and his progression is all about heart and determination. He’s not the best technically (Usyk could well be) but… Bellew is on a nine times winning streak and his last loss was to Haitian superstar Adonis Stevenson in 2013. His last five fights have all been wins against the odds. This is Bellew’s last fight and he has promised to give it his all and leave absolutely everything in the ring. Usyk is very impressive and unbeaten but his biggest win was against a lacklustre Marco Huck (suspended indefinitely by the New Jersey Athletic Control Board) and who lost in his previous fight against Mairis Briedes who is also fighting Saturday (in Chicago against a no mark opponent). For the record I know that others might take the view that his World Boxing Super Series win against Murat Gassiev was his best but I watched that fight and Gassiev was valiant but a hyped and lesser opponent (on form). All of that taken into account the current 5/1 on Usyk against 5/1 against Bellew is crazy! I see it as about a 2/1 on Usyk, 7/4 against Bellew, 20/1 the draw. As such the 5/1 is possibly the best bet of the weekend.

On the undercard, Scotty Cardle against “The Rickster” Ricky Burns is a hastily convened fight which, for me, can have only one outcome: an easy win inside the distance for Ricky. 1/4 is absolutely fair and takeable to bolster the funds for the big one.

Good luck and enjoy!

And the new NH season is here…at last!

October 9, 2015 / / 0 Comments

Chepstow_RacecourseAt last!! It’s a proper jumps weekend with the two day meeting at Chepstow and the Velka Pardubicke on Sunday. Before we know it, there will be potential championship horses out every weekend and I will be in my element! Others will be preoccupied with the slow end of the flat season. Losers! Delighted to have received my Jumpers To Follow. Paul Ferguson’s indispensable guide. Here we go!!

Chepstow’s Jumps Festival has really delivered this year with lots of new recruits making their first outings as well as former hurdlers making their highly anticipated chasing debuts. So let’s get into it because this is when you can get really good value.

2.10 2m 11y Class 4 Novices’ Hurdle

Nicholls really rates Brave Jaq and rightly so. This one is much better bred for jumps and is a confident 2/1 selection. The Henderson horse is a flat race transfer and unconvincing.

245 2m 3f 100y Class 4 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle

Bowen’s 1/2 Aintree listed winner Hollies Pearl is unopposable.

3.20 2m 3f 98y Class 2 Novices’ Chase

This is a cracker! Really good hurdlers going chasing. The obvious choice is Blaklion but I prefer As De Mee (and probably more importantly Nicholls sees him as a better chaser than hurdler!). Notable that Pearl Swan was sold and moved from Nicholls to Bowen for £16,000 so beware with that one.

3.55 2m 110y Class 4 Limited Handicap Hurdle

Monsieur Gibraltar (French import for Nicholls) may be just too good in this company but I prefer Karezak, a horse I’ve thought for a long time has a lot more to give.

4.30 Tote Silver Trophy Hurdle 2m 3f 100y (Grade 3)

Sod the Cesarewitch, Channel 4 should be putting this on as their handicap highlight. I like L’unique for Alan King with Grade 1 form to her credit.

5.05 2m 7f 131y Class 2 Handicap Chase

Normally I’d have moved on before the end of the card but this is another betting cracker. Lots of good candidates. Sausalito Sunrise opened at 12/1 and has contracted to 3/1 so well done to those who got on. I think he’s the bet of the day.

The last race is one for conditional jockeys… Hence no view!

I’ll provide a Sunday view (assuming that I’m not bankrupt by then!).  As for the Velka Pardubicke on Sunday the favourite refused to race last time, but he is ridden by Josef Vana who just wins this race year in, year out. It’s live on Racing UK. If you want to analyse it I think that you’ll need Google Translate: http://www.vpcp.cz.

In case I’m in despair at Chepstow, don’t miss Adrien Du Pont in the opening hurdle, Beast of Burden in a novices’ chase (very excited about that), Emerging Talent (well named) in the Persian War and Above Board in the first division of the Bumper on Sunday.

It would be churlish of me to ignore the Munster National. Quite simply I have no idea!! Good luck to all participants!

For those who have got this far, Strictly and X Factor betting will follow tomorrow. Here’s a clue: Peter Andre, Katie Derham and Helen George.

 

Cheltenham Tuesday selections

March 10, 2014 / / 0 Comments

Is a replica of this what we are going to see tomorrow at about 2.20 p.m.? I think so. This horse, Champagne Fever, truly deserves the title “Cheltenham specialist”. His ability to power up the hill after a fast two miles is vitally important. His prep races have been just that and this is the day that matters.

What of the opposition? Trifolium is a serious contender and rightly now second favourite. His win in the Irish Arkle was hugely impressive but Felix Yonger needs a further trip (more of that later this week). Rock On Ruby is a fine horse but has not been properly tested over fences at this level and you have to think that, at his age, this is an afterthought. I have Valdez running well in third place and the others distant. So there’s a trifecta to start the week!

Now for the remainder of the card.

1.30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

This is between the top three. Several are there for a day out for the owners (nothing wrong with that!). Irving could live up to the hype and Vautour is very good but, notwithstanding Ruby’s decision to go with him, I’m sticking with my prior selection Wicklow Brave, an impressive horse and consistent. So I’m choosing to oppose Ruby but, hey, you have to do these things sometimes!

2.40 3m 1f Handicap Chase

This is much more my type of race. Alfie Sherrin is the confident choice and the selection of AP McCoy. I can’t claim this because several people have observed that he’s been lined up for this and it’s worked out for him. The prep has been perfect and the opposition is not great. I’ll definitely be on Nigel Twiston Davies’ Tour Des Champs for a place.

3.20 2m 110y Champion Hurdle

I inserted the 110y for the proper distance of the Champion Hurdle. It’s not often that it’s really made a difference but what certainly has is the ability to stay up the hill. You need a horse that stays a good deal further than two miles on a flat park course and it amazes me how often people miss that (me included!). I think that top level course form is hugely important and that is why my shortlist is narrowed down to Hurricane Fly and Our Conor. Dessie Hughes knows how to win this race (Hardy Eustace whose profile was not dissimilar to Our Conor). I will be delighted if Hurricane Fly wins but my money will be on Our Conor – obviously up to this standard, capable of staying up the hill and likely to have been fine tuned for this. Barry Connell will not be bothered about the absence of The Tullow Tank from the Festival if he captures the hurdling Blue Riband.

4.00 2m 4f Mares’ Hurdle

Ignore those trying to talk it up as a contest, this will be the easiest ever win for Quevega and she’ll absolutely dominate this lot, like she has when facing inferior Irish opposition after her previous Cheltenham wins. This is the banker of the meeting and 4/6 and 5/6 currently on offer is a gift. Get on now in all combinations because she’ll be much shorter at the off. WP says that she’s had an ideal preparation. If you’re brave then there’s a good case for putting all your week’s fund on this one. I’m not quite that brave but I can’t contemplate her losing!

As an aside, one of my biggest failings for the Festival has been betting on all or most of the races. Having followed the NH season avidly, there is no requirement to bet on every race (albeit that there is a temptation to do so!). My best returns have been based on picking four or five horses out of 27 races (I think that’s right) and believing in what you’ve seen.

4.40 4m Amateurs’ Race

So, having said that, I’m now choosing a horse for a race I should perhaps be avoiding because of its tendency to turn up a long odds winner! I’m all over ShutTheFrontDoor. This horse has a perfect profile for this race. Nina is riding, Foxrock with Katie Walsh on board is a threat, Shotgun Paddy deserves respect, but I can’t see my selection being beaten!

5.15 2m 4f Novices’ Handicap Chase

Now this is one I’d avoid. I have friends who have “got out” on the last on day one on several occasions but I never have. I think that it’s between Art of Logistics and Present View and if I’m overflowing with money by then (I very much doubt that I will be) I might have a few quid on the latter.

So, here’s the betting summary:
Trifecta: 2.05 1 Champagne Fever, 2 Trifolium, 3 Valdez
Lucky 15: Champagne Fever, Alfie Sherrin, Our Conor, Quevega
1.30 Wicklow Brave
2.05 Champagne Fever
2.40 Alfie Sherrin
3.20 Our Conor
4.00 Quevega
4.40 ShutTheFrontDoor
5.15 Present View

Cheltenham and the weather

March 8, 2013 / / 0 Comments

Good evening to whoever may read this.

It’s the Friday before the Festival so it’s time for a general chat before decision time. My views are now tainted by watching several previews including, in particular, the Betfair preview:

Click on the links on the right hand side to get the previews for the subsequent days.

As indicated in the day two comments below the broadcast, I think that Anthony Bromley is the star in this. He’s the only man who, in a meaningful way, bridges the gap between Henderson and Nicholls (plus anyone else who gets a chance). He’s obviously French focused but that’s accounted for much of what we’ve seen in the UK over the last few years, and increasingly in Ireland (look at WP’s stars).

I don’t take any pleasure (really) from the fact that opponents to my selections seem to be drifting away. I’m sure that we would all want all the best horses to turn up. However!! We are now looking at very interesting weather with reports of covering all the courses and below freezing overnight for every night of the Festival until next Friday. I can’t tell you off hand which year it was that there was a lot of snow at the Festival (I’m thinking it was the early 90s). If I spent long enough watching the Racing UK replays I’d be able to tell you. Here’s the thing. If the ground is coming off frost, even if it is officially good to soft (as it will undoubtedly be), ground off the frost just isn’t the same and will be much better suited to winter campaigners – it just will be that way! That’s very significant for the horses requiring good ground (it won’t be) and is a good reason for supporting winter campaigners rather than those who have been saved.

Some of the selections might not perform so well on that ground but the bottom line is that good horses will go well in anything other than terrible ground. For example, I feel better about Sprinter Sacre, Jezki, Dynaste, and all the other Irish challengers. Well, that’s it for now. I’m going to take a look at tomorrow’s runners so there may be a brief list of selections to follow.

Good luck!

Round Up and Leopardstown Friday

December 27, 2012 / / 1 Comment

Belated greetings to all. Christmas Day is great but it’s only a precursor to excellent racing on Boxing/St Stephens Day. I was on Cue Card for the King George and I’m not put off by him in that unusual ground. All credit to Long Run for a gritty win based on his staying which is all that he’s about (but maybe bottomed out). Darlan was great but he won’t be my selection for the Champion Hurdle and I suspect that he won’t be Nicky Henderson’s either.

Dynaste won his race in a faster time than Long Run and don’t believe those who say that it rained in between: that made the ground easier!

It was difficult to keep up with all the races but all credit to Carruthers for a dominant win at Ffos Las.

Irish Saint did what he should have in the first at Kempton today but there are too many others in the mix to do anything with that. Obviously no bet option there but the 2.38/1 I posted on Twitter for a double on Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre does look like a serious option. My only bet today was on Jezki and, based on that performance, it was a gift. Can’t oppose that one in March and the stand out 8/1 from Ladbrokes must be taken. At half the odds I’d think him a good price.

I’m annoyed that I didn’t notice the 3/1 about Prince de Beauchene at Limerick (hurdle), particularly when the stewards rejected the jockey change to allow Patrick Mullins to ride him. 16/1 across the board is a good price for a few quid ante-post on the National (20/1 with Ladbrokes).

It was interesting to see Guillaume Macaire taking a couple of runners to Wetherby but the win for United Park (wouldn’t have won) was marred by the horrible fall of Little Hercules and the inability of RUK (probably not their fault) to let us know the outcome. I suspect the worst.

So, at last, we move on to what is undoubtedly now the most exciting day of the Christmas jumps. Unlike the last couple of days, all the focus is on Leopardstown and the card is, well, pretty moderate other than the big races. Let’s get the support events out of the way. Zaidpour will win the 1.25 and 5/4 is a big bet. The 1.55 is one to avoid but get all over Back In Focus at 6/4 in the 2.25 – I expected him to be serious odds on.

The Lexus Chase is a take your pick between Sir des Champs and Flemenstar. Putting aside all the media hype about Peter Casey I think that he has a Lexus winner and quite possibly a Gold Cup winner. I have no doubt about him staying and he’s my choice at what could turn out to be a very easy 6/4.

So I finally got round to my selections. Good luck!

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