We have some great National Hunt racing to look forward to over the next few days with the declarations ensuring that this an even better weekend than usual.
This is as much a reminder for me as anything so here goes:
Friday
Wetherby
14:05 Ahoy Senior (10/11) (one of the best horses Lucinda Russell has had for a while)
15:15 Porticello (11/8) (Gary Moore top prospect); Too Friendly (100/30); Sacre Pierre (6/1)
15:50 Magic Saint (9/2); Good Boy Bobby (11/4)
16:25 Larch Hill (9/2)
Uttoxeter
14:48 Flic Ou Voyou (9/4) (chasing debut for Nicholls)
Down Royal
13:10 Hollow Games (1/4) (a Ballymore prospect for G Elliott)
13:45 Party Central (13/8) (another top prospect for Eliott)
14:20 Zanahiyr (4/9) (leading Cheltenham candidate last season and potentially more to come – really should win this)
16:05 Arahecan (is the RP nap at 10/1)
16:35 The Mediator (5/6) (unraced for G Elliott)
Saturday
Down Royal
13:05 Fil Dor (debut for G Elliott – watch the market)
13:40 Mighty Potter (yet another interesting debutant for Elliott)
14:15 Charli Parcs (20/1) (not expecting anything from him (now with Aidan Howard) but may improve on 5th last time out). Hearts Are Trumps (22/1) is another who has lost his way but might just run into a place.
14:50 I favour a fresh Frodon (9/2) over Gold Cup winner Minella Indo (evens) at this early stage in the season.
15:25 Envoi Allen (4/11) should win this easily.
Wetherby
13:20 Gericault Rouge (7/2) a likely improver
13:55 Molly Ollys Wishes (100/30) is a confident selection and could have an exciting season ahead.
14:20 Paisley Park (9/4); Thomas Darby (7/2); Master Tommytucker (5/1 and interesting over hurdles). Take your pick.
15:05 Cyrname (6/5) on a redemption mission; Shan Blue (5/1); Fusil Raffles (13/2) my selection
Ascot
14:10 Boothill (7/2) an unbeaten and potentially exciting prospect
14:45 Editeur Du Gite (100/30) won the Red Rum and was followed home by Sully D’oc AA (6/1). A forecast for a repeat?
15:20 Vinndication (3/1) one to watch
Sunday
We await the declarations but races of interest include:
Carlisle 14:00 Chantry House, Fiddlerontheroof,Sporting John
Cork 14:25 Beacon Edge, Bleu Berry,Diol Ker, Run Wild Fred
Cork 15:00 Eleazar Des Neiges, Agent Boru
Overall, we’ll know a lot more after the weekend but it’s worth bearing in mind that, in Ireland, the Down Royal meeting tends to be a benefit for Gordon Elliott, particularly for debutants or near-debutants and WP tends to avoid it. My most interesting candidates?
Ahoy Senior
Porticello
Flic Ou Voyou
Hollow Games
Frodon
Envoi Allen
Molly Ollys Wishes
Fusil Raffles
Boothill
Chantry House
What a treat in prospect! Just for fun, a 9 fold on the Friday and Saturday selections would deliver a 10,000/1 return. Yes, of course I’ve done it! Much better odds than the Lottery.
I’ve also done:
Ahoy Senior, Porticello, Flic Ou Voyou, Hollow Games, Frodon, Envoi Allen and Fusil Raffles accumulator at 679/1
Ahoy Senior, Porticello, Hollow Games, Frodon, Envoi Allen and Fusil Raffles accumulator at 226/1
Ahoy Senior, Porticello, Frodon and Envoi Allen as a Lucky 15 for a potential return of £117.49.
Let’s hope that the first two at Wetherby on Friday deliver.
It’s been a busy week so just time for a few quick selections this evening.
13:45 Manifesto Novices’ Chase – Grade 1 – 2m 4f
A great race to get us under way and I prefer Fusil Raffles*** (3/1) who was an excellent second to Chantry House and ahead of Asterion Forlonge, subsequent winner Chatham Street Lad and Shan Blue in the Marsh. Ground should be fine. I’m yet to be convinced about much-touted Hitman who fell in the Scilly Isles and was beaten by Allmankind in the Henry VIII. The Shunter is taking a big step up and Eldorado Allen has a second in the Arkle to his name but was flattered by that result among the also rans behind Shishkin. Umbrigado at 11/1 is worth a look for a place but bear in mind that there are only 7 runners, therefore first two only unless you get an offer from the bookies (of which there will be many available for the first race).
This is between to first two in the market and Monmiral**** (11/10) is a confident choice ahead of Adagio. The selection bypassed Cheltenham and should be ideally set up for this. Adagio was a fine second in the Triumph but this is after the Lord Mayor’s Ball and he may not yet have fully recovered from that effort.
14:50 Betway Bowl – Grade 1 – 3m 210y
Clan Des Obeaux*** (3/1) was the coming Gold Cup champion for a couple of seasons but it turned out that the blue riband at Cheltenham wasn’t suited to him. However he won the King George in 2018 and 2019 and his form this year is 232. This race is ideal for him to bag a Grade 1 this season and I’m surprised at the generous price. First time cheekpieces is an added bonus.
He’s also a class apart from the opposition. Waiting Patiently is a fine horse but not just quite at the top level (although this course will suit). Tiger Roll just shouldn’t be in this race. He could spring a surprise but could equally be tailed off quite early. Admittedly, I was surprised by his return to form in the Cross Country but this is an entirely different proposition. Clondaw Castle is my idea of the second in the race. Native River doesn’t have his ground and had a hard race when fourth in the Gold Cup. Mister Fisher could just run into a place but jumping is a big question mark.
15:25 Aintree Hurdle – Grade 1 – 2m 4f
This is often described as the middle distance hurdle race that is missing from the Cheltenham Festival and is normally a race of the highest quality. This isn’t the greatest renewal. I’m disappointed that Jason The Militant** (100/30f) is the new favourite because I was looking for a bit of value. Nonetheless, he remains my selection. Abacadabras is a decent horse who fell early on in the Champion Hurdle but this is the first attempt beyond 2m and I’m not sure that it will suit. Mcfabulous is a talking horse who is yet to prove his credentials at the highest level. Brewin’upastorm could run into a place. Buveur D’air is the Henderson hurdling equivalent of Altior over fences – obviously the season has not gone to plan and best watched.
Song For Someone** (12/1 e/w) is a horse that I added to my “to follow” list long before he blossomed. He started this season with two Grade 2s at Ascot and Cheltenham, before being beaten by Goshen in the Kingwell. I’m willing to forgive him that and, on that basis, it’s a very close call between him and the selection. Reverse forecast? Bet placed.
16:05 Foxhunters’ Chase – National course – 2m 5f
Thank goodness that the amateurs are back! I won’t necessarily have a bet but, if I do, I’ll be opposing Billaway who had a hard race at Cheltenham and may not be quite ready for this. He also has a tendency to fall just short in the big races. Sametegal is a veteran chaser who is here on this basis but I don’t think that he’s the obvious choice, albeit that he’s proven over the fences. Cat Tiger* (13/2) is, for me, a better proposition who, at just 7 years old, could be on the start of an Aintree roll (note the choice of word and the second name of the horse) for Corinthian and very competent jockey David Maxwell and trainer Paul Nicholls.
Of the remainder, Jamie Codd was invited to extol the virtues of Mighty Stowaway at a preview night yesterday evening and didn’t. For old times’ sake but with no confidence I’d be delighted to see 13-y-o Ucello Conti thereabouts but I’m afraid that PU is more likely.
16:40 Red Rum Handicap Chase – Grade 3 – 1m 7f
This often turns up a long odds winner. On straight form, second favourite Getaway Trump should win and has the right course but he’s inconsistent, while not being campaigned at the highest level. Editeur Du Gite for the Moores should like the course and ground but, if I do have a bet, it will be on Dostal Phil* (16/1 e/w), an 8-y-o for Philip Hobbs, who could be turning into a half decent chaser. Sully D’oc AA is respected as place option.
17:15 Mares’ Bumper – Grade 2 – 2m 209y
I wouldn’t normally be paying too much attention to a race like this but we have a star on show in the shape of Eileendover**** (10/11f). She’s a dual purpose horse who could well be seen at Royal Ascot. She’s also well ahead of this field in an ideal race on ideal ground and the only serious threat is Elle Est Belle who I backed when she was third in the Champion Bumper. It’s currently 14/1 the field after the first two in the market and the only other one of note is Miss Lamb who was comfortably beaten by Eileendover at Market Rasen.
So, here is the lowdown:
1.45 Fusil Raffles
2.20 Monmiral
2.50 Clan Des Obeaux
3.25 Jason The Militant
4.05 Cat Tiger
4.40 Dostal Phil
5.15 Eileendover
Lucky 15:
Fusil Raffles
Monmiral
Clan Des Obeaux
Eileendover
A £30 Lucky 15 could deliver £415.21. Bet placed.
I’m now going to watch the Road To Aintree with Lydia Hislop and Ruby Walsh on Racing TV to see what they think and probably find that I’m changing my mind!
It’s here again, and with some unexpected rain before we get going. There was 10-12mm of rain on Sunday evening.
(Credit Turftrax (@TurfTrax))
The going is soft, good to soft in places and the going stick reading on the old course (in use on Tuesday and Wednesday) is 5.6. The reading is taken from at least 30 samples around the course and ranges from 0 (flooded) to 15 (rock hard). It’s worth noting that, for national hunt, the relevant averages are 5.2 (heavy), 6.0 (soft), 6.8 (good to soft) and 7.7 (good). There is therefore a decent cut in the ground, albeit on a very good surface, particularly as a result of the January meetings having been abandoned. The forecast for the week is mostly dry but there’s a 60% chance of rain on Tuesday, 10% on Wednesday, 20% on Thursday and 20% on Friday. We should therefore be looking for horses with form on soft and good to soft and be cautious about horses which appear to prefer good ground.
Tuesday
13:20 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (2m)
1. Appreciate It (162p) 3112-111 (evens)****
Second in last year’s Champion Bumper, this long-standing favourite is hard to oppose. Won his maiden hurdle on heavy last November and has followed up with Grade 1 wins at the Leopardstown Christmas and Dublin Racing Festival meetings. No obvious drawbacks and should be staying on at the end.
7. Metier (161p) 111 (11/2)**
Was a decent flat horse and is unbeaten over hurdles (heavy, good to soft, soft), most recently winning the Grade 1 Tolworth impressively on 2 January (although not the strongest field).
2. Ballyadam (158) 31-1142 (7/1)**
Beaten comfortably enough by Appreciate It last time out and trainer Henry de Bromhead has acknowledged that he would have to improve significantly to turn the tables on the favourite.
It’s hard to see any of the others taking the honours. Beware of any non-runners for each way purposes because we have the straight eight (5-7 runners first two only/fewer than 5 win only).
13:55 Arkle Novices’ Chase (1m 7f 199y)
I would have backed Energumene had he not been pulled out lame a few days ago.
6. Shishkin (182p) 1/F111-111 (8/15)*****
This horse is now quite simply unopposable and would still be good value at even shorter odds. The others are a clear level lower and many have question marks about them. A champion chaser in the making.
Allmankind (5/1) is a tearaway who frequently disrespects the fences but has speed and stamina. Backing this one will be a heart in the mouth roller coaster ride.
Captain Guinness (8/1) probably has more to offer but has just fallen short at the highest level, including a fall last time out at the Dublin Racing Festival.
Franco De Port (12/1) was 20/1 a few days ago and also has room for improvement. A possible for a place but consider the forecast bearing in mind that there are only 6 runners.
The others have no realistic chance.
14:30 Ultima Handicap Chase (3m 1f)
This is the first real betting option, although Happygolucky is quite short at 7/2. I prefer Aye Right*** (6/1) for small trainer Harriet Graham but with the benefit of Richard Johnson on board. He was third in the Charlie Hall Chase and was an excellent second in the Ladbrokes Trophy (behind current Grand National favourite Cloth Cap), following up with another decent second in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster.
Of the others, Cepage and Ok Corral (both 25/1) both provide decent each way value (first four as long as there are no defectors but look for bookie offers for up to the first six).
15:05 Champion Hurdle (2m 87y)
6. Goshen (174) 111U-01 (5/1)*****
You are either a believer or a non-believer when it comes to this horse and I am in the former category. He was going to be one of the best Triumph winners in many a year at last year’s Festival when unseating in the most unfortunate circumstances after the last. He suffered a fibrillating heart when bombing out in the International Hurdle but was a most taking winner of the Kingwell Hurdle last month. I think that they know how to run him and he’ll either win or be unplaced.
10. Honeysuckle (178) 1111-11 (7/4)****
This mare made it a perfect 10 from 10 when easily winning last month’s Irish Champion Hurdle (for the second time), where she beat Abacadabras, Sharjah and Saldier, none of whom are likely to reverse the form here.Her winning form includes on soft and heavy. She was last year’s winner of the Mares’ Hurdle at the Festival but this is by some way her stiffest test yet.
9. Epatante (175+) 9/111-12 (4/1)***
This defending champion would undoubtedly have been a short priced favourite to repeat the feat were it not for a very disappointing run in the Christmas Hurdle. She was headstrong, unsettled, fluffed a number of hurdles and was comprehensively beaten by Silver Streak. She was subsequently reported to have a back problem and must be treated with considerable caution on her first outing since then.
It’s hard to look beyond the first three in the betting, not least because several of them have raced against each other on several occasions. One of note is James Du Berlais (33/1) for Munir/Souede and Willie Mullins who is having his first outing since moving from France, last time out a close send in the Grande Course De Haies Des 4 Ans last November. It’s a tall order but the high level form (12-121212) has to be respected and is perhaps worth a few quid each way.
15:40 Mares’ Hurdle (2m 3f 200y)
Concertista (11/8f) was an easy 12 lengths winner of the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s Festival and should win this. However, I’m going to take a chance with Roksana*** (11/4) who is tough and battle-hardened and was fourth in this race last year. Dame De Compagnie set out on a chasing career this season, having won last year’s Coral Cup, beating Black Tears. She may shine back over hurdles but I think that the front two in the market will provide too tough a challenge. Of the remainder, last year’s Martin Pipe winner Indefatigable could provide a bit of each way value at 25/1.
16:15 Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (2m 87y)
Current favourite Houx Gris (9/2) was a €200,000 purchase for the current owners, having beaten Homme Public (14/1) at Auteuil. However, a 22 1/2l third behind Adagio and Nassalam in the Finale at Chepstow was not the most auspicious UK debut and I prefer Saint Sam*** (11/2) for Mullins/Townend, after his impressive second to Quilixios in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile on soft to heavy at the Dublin Racing Festival. This one could easily have taken his chance in the Triumph but must carry 11st 8lbs. Of the others Homme Public is attractive for a place at 14/1.
16:50 National Hunt Chase (3m 5f 201y)
As you may have seen, I was all over Royale Pagaille for this race at 2/1 until connections made the courageous decision to declare him for the Gold Cup, in which he is a current 8/1 chance.
As soon as Paul Nicholls saw that Royale Pagaille was a defector, he opted for this race for Next Destination (5/2f) in place of the Brown Advisory (formerly the RSA Chase on Wednesday). I had selected Escaria Ten** (9/2) for the Ultima and now that he turns up here I won’t desert him. Of the others, if you ignore his last outing on heavy ground when pulled up here last November, Soldier Of Love could run into a place at an appealing 40/1.
Wednesday
13:20 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (2m 5f)
2. Bob Olinger (157p) 1-211 (15/8)*****
If you read my last post you’ll know that this is one of my horses of the week and is a confident selection. His win in the Grade 1 Lawlor’s of Naas in January was mightily impressive and he looks like a top performer in the making. It’s not so much who he’s beaten but how he’s done it that has really caught the eye.
3. Bravemansgame (160p) 36-2111 (11/4)***
This is a much-touted horse and one of the big hopes of the week for Paul Nicholls. He has won his last three outings including a 10 lengths’ defeat of Star Gate and The Glancing Queen in the Grade 1 Challow at Newbury last time. However, the Challow has lost its sparkle in recent years (£23,800 to the winner) and I’m not sure that he’s really been proven at this level.
5. Gaillard Du Mesnil (159p) 21222-211 (11/4)***
An admirably consistent horse for Mullins/Townend/Donnelly and a fair enough winner of the Nathaniel Lacey on soft to heavy at the Dublin Racing Festival last month. Could well improve further but I can’t see him beating Bob Olinger.
Of the remainder Keskonrisk (16/1) was a respectable third to Appreciate It at Leopardstown last December and may well run into a place on this first attempt beyond 2 miles.
13:55 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (3m 80y)
So here comes another of my top 5 for the week and there really is no need to look beyond Monkfish***** (1/2f), arguably the best National Hunt horse in training, let alone as a novice. I’ve seen slow-motion videos of this horse in action and he is a treat to behold. Just a watching brief at the price but could well turn out to be the performance of the week.
14:30 Coral Cup (2m 5f)
Good luck!! It’s currently 7/1 the field so we need to look for a bit of value in the cavalry charge (28 runners at the time of writing and reserves who may come into play).
Look out for the weights because this is often taken by one towards the bottom of the handicap. With that in mind, here are a few to look at:
Dysart Diamond (25/1) – 10st 8lbs
Witness Protection (25/1) – 10st 1lb
Encore Champs (28/1) – 10st (RESERVE)
Breffniboy (40/1) – 10st 1lb (RESERVE)
15:05 Champion Chase (1m 7f 199y)
1. Chacun Pour Soi (187p) 1/121-111 10/11f*****
Another of the five for the week, hopefully his time has now come, having been withdrawn on the day of the race last year with a foot abscess. He has clearly had his issues with 1219, 239 and 270 days’ breaks during his career but he has had three outings since last December, with facile victories in a Grade 2 and two Grade 1s. Dare I say it, the current 10/11 looks like very good value indeed, not least with the defection of Altior.
It’s currently 8/1 bar behind the favourite and that’s about right. Nube Negra (8/1) beat a below par Altior in the Desert Orchid Chase but is surely not in the same league as the favourite. Politologue (10/1) is the defending champion but it’s hard to imagine that he would have beaten Chacun Pour Soi had he participated. Put The Kettle On (10/1) was a 16/1 winner of last year’s Arkle but was a one-paced third to Chacun Pour Soi at Leopardstown last December.
Notebook (28/1) could run into a place if having a good day.
15:40 Cross Country Chase (3m 6f 37y)
If you forgive his below-par run here when 4th last November Easysland (11/10) is the right favourite at the right price. However, of the many short odds horses this week, I think that he’s one of the most vulnerable. It’s hard to argue with the form (11/111114) but I think that former Welsh National winner Potters Corner (6/1) may well have been well-primed for this race and it would be great to see him win for Christian Williams.
16:15 Grand Annual Chase (1m 7f 199y)
This race has produced 66/1 and 28/1 winners in the last five years and it can pay to look down the card. With that in mind I’ve picked out Sky Pirate (15/2), Ibleo (12/1), Bun Doran (28/1) and Not That Fuisse (25/1). I’ll probably follow the market on the day before making my final pick.
16:50 Champion Bumper (2m 87y)
Sir Gerhard (9/4) was the long time ante post favourite for this race, having been bought for £400,000 by Cheveley Park and easily winning his only two races to date. (He is among the horses transferred to Willie Mullins after the recent Gordon Elliott debacle.)
However, then came along Kilcruit***** (pronounced Kilcrut as Ruby and Willie will be quick to remind you). A Mullins horse through and through, as the title to this video says, “Have you ever seen a graded race won as easily as this?”
I watched this one live (on TV of course) and immediately made a note to myself that this one had to be the selection for the Festival Bumper. Even WP was lost for words after the race. Hopefully a decent 2/1 winner to round off the second day.
