Got a rubbish connection connection tonight:
Not great when I’m trying to do a big update on CLB Employment Solutions!
Category: update
I was hoping to be at Haydock tomorrow but work obligations have put paid to that.
It’s an interesting day (all Saturdays are at this time of year) but I’m not sure that we’re going to get too many Cheltenham pointers with a combination of soft ground and other targets.
It’s great to see that the BHA has got hold of prize money but this weekend has been hijacked by forces beyond race fans’ control.
So, on to the racing.
Haydock
Let’s start with the undoubted best race of the day, the Betfair Chase at Haydock (3.05). Long Run is the best horse in the race but it’s hard to see that this is a priority. Nicky Henderson has said that he’s “a fair way forward compared to last year and he has pleased me in his schooling” but he’s also expressed concern about the ground. It’s not raining now around here but there’s been a hell of a lot of rain over the last few days and we know what that can do to Haydock.
Silviniaco Conti is race fresh and there’s every reason to believe that this is his ideal race. I’ve been a strong supporter since his novice days and his profile is ideal for this. The current 9/4 is great value and you can ignore the rest. There are only two horses in this race.
Staying with Haydock, Balder Success is just making money in the 12.20 and should be included in all combinations.
Ile de Re is a deserved favourite in the 12.55 but he’s up against serious opposition and the current odds allow you to take a view. I’m with Lamb or Cod for 11/2 value in likely soft ground.
Beware of the 1.25 unusually placed NHF. If you need to have a bet for Placepot or other purposes choose Baltimoar. I’m not convinced that 4/7 is good value but there are only five runners so it’s a no bet option unless combinations are required. Incidentally, thank God it’s a real placepot rather than the guaranteed worst odds we had to put up with when I was at Bangor (“bangor(no)bet”) last week!
The 2.00 is full of horses that you wouldn’t want to follow so it’s a real challenge. I’m going with a Twitter tip from Alexander Voy, the jockey on Lie Forrit, a big favourite of Lydia Hislop and I’ll be interested to know whether she’s following him. I note that she’s not on RUK this weekend so maybe I won’t find out.
The 2.30 presents a dilemma, not just in terms of the currently open market but because there are horses about which you can take a view. I’m a supporter of Saphir River but his form has been terribly disappointing. 15/2 is very appealing but I have to choose him only on the basis that he’s a lot better than current form has shown. Sometimes you just have to take a view!
I’ve done the 3.05 and, to be honest, the 3.40 is a fairly lazy afterthought. I’ll go for Pettifour just on the basis of old form and quality
Ascot
Well, this card has turned out to be a bit of a damp squib. I’d heard that Paul Nicholls wanted to give Big Buck’s a go at the fixed brush hurdle at Haydock (why don’t we have fixed brush everywhere – just an aside) but the owner wanted him to run at Ascot and now he doesn’t run at either!
I’ll pick out a couple to be going on with. Finians Rainbow (2.10) is good value (evens) against Captain Chris (the latter is a nearly horse).
Raya Star is similarly good value against odds on Oscar Whisky in the 2.45. The latter should win but the former is a serious candidate.
The 3.20 is a lottery and don’t be surprised if Marodima weighs in at between 12/1 and 14/1.
Well, here I am again after a summer break and looking forward to some decent jumps racing tomorrow.
First, I think that Channel 4 have got it right with the new team. Graham Cunningham and Gina Bryce are notably good appointments. I’m looking forward to what IMG Sports Media have said will be a “more journalistic approach”. By the way, this article about where the BBC coverage ended up with reference to a certain individual is well worth reading
So, I’m not at Aintree tomorrow but that has to be the starting point.
Aintree
Cape Express is a confident selection in the first (1.50). Empire Levant turned out to be a disappointing horse and Nampour is the only other threat.
Big Fella Thanks has been unloaded by Ferdy Murphy and has had a big lay off so, in the moderate 2.25 chase, I’m with the 11-y-o Nikola, a winner of the equivalent race at Aintree last year and off bottom weight.
The 2.55 is a very basic chase (2m 4f) and could go to any of them. My preference is for Pasco with the jockey claiming 3lbs off top weight. I can’t resist commenting that Sizing Santiago is not exactly a well known member of the “Sizing team”!
The 3.25 (Old Roan Chase) is the big one (£37,018 to the winner) and I really don’t like the previous class horse Wishfull Thinking. This is a genuinely fascinating race in terms of the up and coming chasers. For Non Stop took the classic English novices’ route and disappointed and Noble Prince (a Montjeu horse) took the Irish equivalent, only to disappoint in the Ryanair. I’ll forgive him that and he’s my choice with Davy Russell on board to run away with this. For Facebook reasons only (!) I’ll be keeping an eye on Hectors Choice (not in the same league).
We should bypass the 4.00 (for Placepot purposes I’ll go with Global Fella because of the owner and trainer connections and no more than that).
The 4.35 features one of my very favourite horses, Carlito Brigante. I’ve followed this horse throughout his career and always missed the big odds wins. He’s been campaigned at the highest level over hurdles and I liked his last win in a beginners’ chase, albeit possibly a bit fortunate. I recall Gordon Elliott saying that he’d find a suitable novices’ chase for his next outing so I’m happy to agree with him. The obvious threat is Unioniste for the formidable Nicholls yard but his last AQPS win was no big deal and the previous form for Guillaume Macaire is not that impressive.
I was expecting to have moved on from Aintree by now but the last features a very interesting horse in the shape of Gevrey Chambertin. This David Pipe resident commands great respect from the owner (also the owner of Grands Crus) and is another Dom Alco horse. I suspect that this horse is lined up for great things so the current 4/7 is an absolute gift.
Chepstow
Most NH seasons I look back and think that I wish I’d picked up those horses when they were good value. With that in mind I approach the Chepstow card with enthusiasm.
It’s no surprise that Ruby Walsh is at Chepstow for Paul Nicholls’ good prospects (same as last year), so all declared runners deserve respect.
I’ll pick out a few. Throughout last season Nicholls obviously liked Deireadh Re (2.35) and I’m absolutely convinced that he’s a good product of Old Vic. His form tailed off last year but you wouldn’t be worried about that if his future is as a 3m chaser. Admitted he disappointed in a novices’ chase at Fakenham in May but I’m prepared to disregard that.
The Persian War Novices’ Hurdle (3.40) offers only just over £12,000 to the winner (for a Grade 2) but how often have you seen the winner in the mix in the Spring? I’m all over Wonderful Charm on his first outing for Nicholls after a highly creditable French campaign under the tutelage of Mlle Tatiana Puitg. Seems to me to be a very good find.
The Silver Trophy used to be a relatively high profile race but it’s now towards the end of an ATR card when I expect to be elsewhere. I have no strong feelings about any of the runners so it’s one that I’ll be passing on.
Ironically, the 4.50 Racing Post Form With Totepool Handicap Chase (also a Grade 2) over just over 2m has a much better field including some old favourites. I’m confidently with Tataniano notwithstanding the 371 days off.
You won’t be surprised that I’m passing on the 5.25 conditional jockeys’ handicap chase! I suggest going for whatever is 25/1.
So that’s my summary for tomorrow. Good luck!
It’s a shame we don’t have any Choc Clor but I’ll get on to that tomorrow:
I’ve just completed the transfer from Easyspace to Varihost (MUCH better!)
A few database issues (as expected) but all worked out in the end.
I’ll be back posting with my ruminations on life very soon (as soon as I’ve got an opportunity to get away from jobs, jobs, jobs!!)