I have a streaming cold but I’m off to Aintree tomorrow and looking forward to a few decent races in a mixed bag.
Aintree
The first notable observation is that the going for the National course is heavy (4.0), no surprise after the local deluge over the last few days. The Mildmay course is soft, good to soft in places (5.2) and the hurdle course is soft, heavy in places on bends (4.7). It’s not raining at the moment (which makes a change after about 48 hours of pretty uninterrupted rain). No further rain is expected until 2.00 p.m. tomorrow.
I’m doing this preview without the benefit of looking at any others on the basis that I’ve been put off horses to my cost over the last few weeks so here goes. I’ll check the odds when I’ve finished.
12.00 2m 1f Maiden Hurdle
I make this one between Oscar Magic and Celtic Abbey. Oscar Magic was second in a Class 4 at Lingfield about a month ago on soft over 2m 3f. Overbury (sire of Simon, Ballyfitz and Missed That) gives Celtic Abbey a better profile on his hurdling debut after reasonable Irish bumper form.
12.35 2m 1f Juvenile Hurdle
Probably the most difficult race on the card. A lot of flat transfers but L’Unique ran well in September on very soft at Auteuil and has presumably been purchased for a big yard for a reason.
1.05 3m 1f Chase
Any of these could win. I’ll dismiss (hesitantly) Calgary Bay on the basis of a last poor run on heavy ground. I expect that Quito de la Roque will be favourite but I’ll go with Across the Bay on the basis of the trainer and two good wins on heavy in the last couple of months. He’s well placed for this one.
1.35 2m 4f Handicap Hurdle
I really like Master of the Sea in this one. Just two days since his last outing but I’ve watched his Hereford race and the penalty should be fine. He wasn’t overly exerted.
2.10 Becher Chase 3m 2f
The first thing to note is the heavy ground. Which horses are being aimed for this and which for the National? On that basis I discount Ballabriggs notwithstanding his tendency to run well fresh, but not at this level. West End Rocker won last year on heavy but I’m not sure that he’s the same horse and Hello Bud’s Cross Country performance at Cheltenham tells me he’s just too old. Minella Theatre and Any Currency might place but my choice is Join Together on the basis of the trainer choice and a big assumption that he will take to the Aintree challenge.
2.45 2m 4f Handicap Hurdle
Bear’s Affair is comfortably ahead of the rest of them. Second race back to hurdles (win) and will win.
3.20 Grand Sefton 2m 5f
This is a valuable race and has attracted a decent field (at least at the top end and based on what they have done rather than what they might do). It seems to me that Tranquil Sea is here rather more in hope than expectation. Nacarat was great but I doubt that the front running form is still there. Gansey has foiled many of my mid-winter bets but I’m still not persuaded. I’m forced to go for Little Josh on the basis that he can, notwithstanding his diminutive frame, jump these fences well and he’s had a good break.
Sandown
I’ll just pick out the TV races for this soft ground meeting.
1.55 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase 2m
This is one of my favourite races of the year and nearly always provides a Cheltenham favourite. I can’t imagine that Captain Conan will be beaten but, as seen as Exeter today, heavy odds-on shots don’t always oblige. I think that this one is a safe bet.
2.30 2m 110y Handicap Hurdle
I like Petit Robin off top weight but not with a lot of confidence. I think that he might be just too good for this lot.
3.05 Tingle Creek Chase 2m
This is the NH race of the new season and will no doubt be highly relevant for next March. Sprinter Sacre is the undoubted star of the season and should win but, as I tweeted earlier this week, I think that the difference in price between them is too much. I won’t be surprised if Sanctuaire takes the lead in this race (Ruby’s done this quite a lot recently) and in softish going that may be significant. However, Sprinter Sacre will win.
3.40 London National 3m 5f+
It’s a bit ridiculous that this is called the “London National”. I noticed it was named this a few years ago when I called it the “moderate stamina handicap before Channel 4 go off air and hopefully they’ll fit it in handicap chase”! I’ve included it only to make that comment. If pushed, it’s interesting that Donald McCain has a Southern runner for Trevor Hemmings in the shape of Lively Baron so he’s my choice.
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Summary
So, having made my selections, I’ll now check the betting as it currently stands (could look a bit stupid!)
Aintree
12.00 – Celtic Abbey: 11/2 (about right)
12.35 – L’Unique: 6/5 (disappointing)
1.05 – Across the Bay: 7/2 (OK)
1.35 – Master Of The Sea: 4/1 (OK)
2.10 – Join Together: 6/1jf (OK)
2.45 – Bear’s Affair: 13/5 (great)
3.20 – Little Josh: 11/2 (too short)
Sandown
1.55 – Captain Conan: 8/15 (good value)
2.30 – Petit Robin: 9/1 (excellent value)
3.05 – Sprinter Sacre: 4/9 (massive value)
3.40 – Lively Baron: 11/4 (moderate value)
Good luck!!