Zabaik! Well, I didn’t get where I am today without spotting the odd one. I got 33/1 and I’m delighted that my friend and fellow watcher from the pub GKR got 40/1 so we were guaranteed to be in profit from the first race, which made for a very jolly day. Altior duly obliged but connections of Douvan don’t need to lose any sleep for the two miles king. Noble Endeavor was, well, noble in the Ultima and Petit Mouchoir delighted his trainer with a valiant third.
Well done Buveur d’Air, even though I abandoned him on account of the stated preference for soft ground. The second highlight of the day was Apple’s Jade’s superb victory in the Mares’ Hurdle which was a genuine race with the best three to the fore and the winner showing what a good horse she is. The best news of the day is that Moon Racer is apparently none the worse after being pulled up sharply in the Champion Hurdle. So, on to day two. We have a a lot to live up to!
Neptune Novices’ Hurdle
Choice: Bacardys*** (7/2)
Finians Oscar was my initial choice but didn’t make it to the show. My replacement was Bacardys*** (7/2) on the basis that he could see off Neon Wolf (2/1) (who I would have preferred in the Supreme). They have both made it to the race and comfortably head the field. I see no reason to change my mind and have Bacardys battling up the hill and just seeing off the favourite.
RSA Chase
Choice: Royal Vacation** (20/1 -> 16/1 -> unchanged -> 12/1 -> 8/1)
I had chosen Might Bite but I’ve gone against him. This is an attritional race. Even with the master guidance of Mouse Morris, ever since I played Totopoly I can’t have a horse that burst a blood vessel badly in his last race so that excludes Alpha Des Obeaux.
I’m going with this evening’s plunge horse and my initial one to watch, Royal Vacation**, who has shortened from 20/1 to 8/1 and could go off as low as 6/1. Whisper is another one deserving of respect.
I think that I believed too much of the hype about Might Bite which is why he is now overlooked.
Coral Cup
Choice: Tombstone*** (5/1 -> 4/1). They obviously think this is a good one. Could have gone for a bigger test.
My choice was made a couple of weeks ago (Tombstone***) and the only one I see as a serious opponent is WP’s Tin Soldier in what is normally a lottery of a race.
Champion Chase
Choice: Douvan***** (4/11 -> 1/3 -> unchanged -> unchanged -> 2/7)
Douvan***** is a lot better than today’s Arkle victor Altior and is, quite simply, the best horse on show in the Festival. Unopposable.
Cross Country
Choice: Auvergnat** (12/1 -> unchanged -> 8/1 -> 15/2 -> 13/2)
Two weeks ago: Serious support for this one. Gordon Elliott and Jamie Codd like Cause of Causes (4/1 -> unchanged) a lot, particularly on good ground.
This used to be a race to avoid until the trends emerged. First introduced to the Festival in 2005, Enda Bolger is rightly regarded as the master of these races but his record is not as strong as you might think (five from eleven). Nonetheless, he is the one to start with and I think that Auvergnat** is the best of his four entries, and my selection. I have an affection for Cause of Causes**, a Cheltenham favourite. The ground is always firmer on the cross country course and he has the maestro Jamie Codd on board. My selection is marginal and I might well end up betting on both of them.
Fred Winter
Choice: Divin Bere* (6/1)
This is one in which my initial selections have defected so I will probably give this a swerve. The preview panels have directed me to Divin Bere, Domperignon Du Lys and Dolos, from whom the former was most supported, hence the selection. Not one I’ll take credit for as a selection if he wins.
Champion Bumper
I said ten days ago that I’m against Carter McKay and I’ve not seen anything in the previews to change my mind. I’ve considered possibly too young 4-y-o Debuchet and Carl Hinchy’s horse Cause Toujours, but I’m drawn to another Gordon Elliott horse Fayonagh** (9/1), another Jamie Codd ride, who may well beat the boys in this one. However, this comes with the annual caveat that you must watch the market on the day.
Placepot (this is very winnable)
1 – 1 Bacardys
2 – 10 Royal Vacation
3 – 5 Tombstone; 19 Tin Soldier
4 – 1 Douvan
5 – 4 Auvergnat; 8 Cause of Causes
6 – 1 Divin Bere; 5 Dolos; 9 Domperignon du Lys
Good luck!!