Martin Malone

Sadly, Friday’s racing was overshadowed by the death of Gold Dancer shortly after winning the Mildmay Novices’ Chase. No blame can attach to jockey Paul Townend because he ran straight to the line and the injury only became apparent to him after he slowed to a trot and was immediately dismounted.

The race had franked the form at Cheltenham where the winner and second were second and third in the Jack Richards behind Meetmebythesea. However, that was far from the case in several of the other races, notably for Sober Glory, Heart Wood and Johnny’s Jury. A wipeout as far as my selections were concerned, not for the first time! On to National day. It’s raining at the moment, Friday evening, but with just 0.6mm forecast, they’re watering again with another 5mm. The Melling Chase was 1.46 seconds faster than standard and the Topham by 1.75 seconds, so there must be some good in the ground, which will not suit some of the National runners.

12:45 Maghull Novices’ Chase Grade 1 2m

Salvator Mundi (5/4f) won the Top Novices’ Hurdle here last year, and his progression over fences has been improved by a decent win at Thurles after an unimpressive 6/9 in the Racing Post Novice Chase at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival. I think that the course suits and the competition is not too stiff.

Mighty Bandit (9/2) is on a four timer, but not at the highest level.

Kala Conti (11/2) was a commendable second to Kargese at Cork and was subsequently beaten by Sixmilebridge in the Scilly Isles at Sandown in January. A decent contender and benefits from the mares’ allowance.

13:20 Handicap Hurdle 3m

I don’t have a strong view on this race. The prevailing view is for Hold The Serve (11/2) but I’ll be swerving this one.

13:55 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 2m4f

Now I do have a strong view about this one. Ballyfad (7/2) was my selection in the Turners when he was 10th after being kicked before the start. I’m disregarding that run and his previous form is 11112, the latter when being beaten a short head in the Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at the DRF. Has jumped right on occasions but I think that this course will suit.

Bossman Jack is the current favourite (5/2) and was disputing third when making a bad mistake at the last in the Turners’ (18/1). I think that he’s overrated.

Montmares (7/1) won a Grade 2 at Kelso and Soldier Reeves (15/2) was fourth at 150/1 in the Turners’, while Scorpio Rising, on a five timer, has been campaigned at a much lower level.

14:30 Handicap Chase 3m1f

Frankly, this Premier Handicap on the National day is a benefit for the bookies. That’s nothing new but I have no view about it at all. The form of the top three this season in the market is 634, 6p, 1150. For guidance, the Racing Post selection is Brave Fortune (15/2) and Timeform’s choice is Mr Hope Street.

15:05 Liverpool Hurdle Grade 1 3m

This is too difficult for me.

Honesty Policy appears to like the course, having won the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (2m4f) last year. It’s worth noting that he beat: Regent’s Stroll, Funiculi Funicula, Koktail Divin, Horacles Pearl, Castle Carrock, Miami Magic, Good And Clever and Kappa Jy Pyke.

On the basis of that alone, he’s my selection as 3/1f.

16:00 Grand National 4m2 1/2f

Lets keep it simple:

• 1st Grangeclare West 10/1
• 2nd Monty’s Star 16/1
• 3rd Quai De Bourbon 25/1
• 4th I Am Maximus 7/1
• 5th Stellar Story 28/1
• 6th Final Orders 28/1

17:00 Bumper Grade 2 2m1f

Bass Hunter (9/4) for Chris Gordon/Harry Cobden, third in the Champion Bumper at 8/1, is fancied to improve on that slightly greenish run. Look Me at 7/2 for Mullins/Townend/Munir Souede is respected and I’ll probably have an each way on Cooltobecareless (28/1) for Skelton/Durrell.

Good luck!

The going today was described by all the jockeys I heard on Thursday as perfect, so all seems to be set well for the remaining two days. There have been some heavy showers locally this evening but I think that the ground was so decent today that it will hold at ideal good to soft, so no excuses. Selma De Vary was arguably unlucky again after being pushed right twice, but still managed a commendable second in the opener. Lulamba’s fall followed a few dodgy jumps and Koktail Divin duly took the honours in his absence. Jango Baie was a very impressive winner of the Bowl; all the more impressive after a hard run in the Gold Cup. I was delighted with Lets Go Champ’s second in the Foxhunters’ at 11/1. Brighterdaysahead duly won the Aintree Hurdle, and is clearly better suited by the distance and this type of track. Gordon Elliott is still saying that she’ll go chasing next season. Sans Bruit ran well in the Red Rum Chase but was beaten by better horses. A profitable day, hopefully to be repeated on Friday, but with tougher races on a weaker day’s racing.

A few haven’t progressed from Cheltenham but enough have done so to suggest that the four weeks’ gap from the Festival is sufficient not to inconvenience them.

13:45 Handicap Hurdle 2m4f

Indeevar Bleu (5/1) is a popular favourite and the Racing Post nap, having won over course and distance on Boxing Day, but this is a much tougher call. I can’t split Jazzy Matty (9/1) and Joyeuse (13/2). Joyeuse was third in the County Hurdle and should benefit from the increase in distance. Jazzy Matty was a close second in the Grand Annual and benefits from a notable lower hurdle mark. Hot Fuss (15/2) is another who was second at the Festival in the Martin Pipe.

14:20 Mildmay Novices’ Chase Grade 1 3m1f

Gold Dancer (4/1f) is not from WP’s top drawer and has not won beyond 2 1/2m (last of four in his only attempt at 3m). However, he was an impressive second in the Jack Richards, with Regent’s Stroll (5/1) third. Will he stay? Wendigo (9/2) fell in the Brown Advisory and I don’t think that he’s good enough to win a Grade 1, even a sub par one like this. The same applies to Miami Magic (9/2), with his only win over this sort of distance against inferior opposition. Doyen Quest (14/1) has the benefit of a break since January but he has been beaten by Salver (4/1jf) on his last two outings and I don’t see the form being reversed here. Salver has been campaigned with the best and has a record of 2 from 5 over fences, both Grade 2s and was third in the Brown Advisory. This is his opportunity to take a step up.

14:55 Top Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 2m1/2f

This should be between Sober Glory (4/6f – nap) and Baron Noir (7/2). The reference is the Supreme in which Sober Glory was a fine second, with Baron Noir 9 lengths back in fourth. I see no reason for the placings to be reversed this time.

Sinnatra (7/1) was fifth in the County Hurdle, which is a long way behind the form of the market leaders. Timeform takes the same view with the three named in the order suggested.

15:30 Melling Chase Grade 1 2m4f

Heart Wood (6/4f) was a fine winner of the Ryanair, beating Jonbon and Banbridge (latter running in the National), and is confidently taken to follow up here. Grey Dawning’s (3/1) recent form is 134 and the application of head gear plus the reduction in trip suggests that this is an attempt to find a solution.

Gidleigh Park (5/1) ran poorly and was pulled up last time out, but has decent form here when second to Impaire Et Passe and beating Jango Baie in last year’s Manifesto Novices’ Chase, but it takes a leap of faith to believe that he’s retained that level of form.

Solness (17/2) is a very in and out horse. Fifth of six last time out in the Dublin Chase, his previous run was a win in a Grade 1 at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival, beating Marine Nationale and Majborough. Surprisingly (to me at least) this is his first attempt at Aintree and there’s a good chance that he’ll take to the course. Definitely worth a little each way at 9/1, even with only seven runners.

16:05 Topham Chase 2m5f

It’s surprising to see Il Est Francais (16/1) and Croke Park (22/1) in this and I suspect that both are looking for a route to revival over a different test. Not for me.

Ile Atlantique’s form is better than the price suggests (9/1), having won a Grade 2 last season and second to Heart Wood in the New Year’s Day Chase at Tramore. However, his eighth in the Leopardstown Chase at the DRF is concerning.

Gentleman De Mee (9/1) is last year’s 14/1 winner of this, having just beaten Lisnmamault Lad (16/1), when both were clear of the field and is respected.

The outstanding candidate is favourite Madara (9/2) who comes here on the back of a 7 1/2 lengths win in the Plate at the Festival. A good and smooth jumper in the best form of his life, who should take well to this challenge.

16:40 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 3m1/2f

This is a genuinely intriguing (difficult!) race and, unlike some of the others this week, fully deserving of its Grade 1 status.

Johnny’s Jury is obviously at the (joint) head of the market at 100/30f, having won the Albert Bartlett in good style. However, unless I’m mistaken which is quite possible, this is only the fifth run of his career, with the first three having been in Class 4s. Was he a freak winner of the Albert Bartlett at 20/1? Possibly. This is also a very different challenge.

Zeus Power (6/1) was a 50/1 third in the Turners, having persevered well after a poor start having been hampered. His previous form was moderate, as suggested by the price.

Mondoui’boy’s (11/2) form is altogether more impressive, having won a maiden at Ludlow in January, a Class 2 at Ascot and then coming fourth in the Albert Bartlett, having been a front runner when those who beat him came from behind. Definitely progressive and very popular with tipsters, but not Timeform, which doesn’t have him placing.

Paul Nicholls has not had a good season to put it mildly. However, in the absence of Caldwell Potter, No Drama This End (100/30jf) is undoubtedly his stable star. I’m happy to disregard completely his run in the Turners in which he was disadvantaged from the start and was knocked about until rightly being pulled up. I think that the course will suit and we will see the real horse. If you ignore the Cheltenham debacle he would surely be the justified favourite and I’m more than happy to take as a better reference his preceding three Class 1 wins at Cheltenham, Sandown and Newbury. A confident selection and it will be good to see Mr Nicholls smiling again at a Festival with a Grade 1 winner. The price is great value.

17:15 Conditionals and Amateurs’ Hurdle 2m1/2f

The last three winners of this race started at 25/1, 40/1 and 40/1, so good luck!

With no conviction, I’m going to support the Nicholls family to follow up with Pourquoi Pas Papa (9/1), a good challenge for the commentator, who ran very creditably when fourth in the Fred Winter.

I don’t get why Harry Lowes is the favourite at 4/1. It’s notable that Patrick Mullins is on Sherminator (6/1) for Emma Lavelle.

Bearing in mind recent renewals, for a longer odds option, I’ll pick No Ordinary Joe (33/1), but with no conviction.

Good luck!

A better day on Thursday with wins for Meetmebythesea and Supremely West. Fact To File was taken out and Bambino Fever was reported in the race review to be unsuited by the ground, while Impaire Et Passe was ridden in the Ryanair as if he didn’t have a chance. WP was very critical of the ground: “If the ground is going to be like this, we’re not going to bring them”. Well, it’s going to be very different tomorrow if the excellent yr.no Norwegian weather report is right – 8.2mm overnight. Someone nearby has reported that it’s “lashing down” at 9.00 p.m. on Thursday. With that in mind, we plough on. Could there be a Welsh winner of the Gold Cup?

The race starts have been embarrassing. The required bold decision is to move them away from bends, even if that affects the race distances. We’re well used to race distances being altered to suit the ground and rails positions so it isn’t really that much of an imposition.

So much depends on the ground that my selections are subject to the big caveat that they could change dramatically and I’ll be waiting until just before the races.

13:20 Triumph Hurdle 2m1f

Narciso Has was going to be the confident selection until injury intervened. Timeform and I are both keen on Minella Study (6/1) for Adam Nicol and Ryan Mania to break the Irish strangehold on this race. Proactif (9/2) and Selma De Vary (7/2) are respected. It’s notable how much Macho Man is a drifter. If we are really on soft ground then Highland Crystal is in the equation.

14:00 County Handicap Hurdle 2m1f

My Raceshare tiny fraction in Gibbs Island (50/1) gives me added interest in this race, but I can’t possibly recommend him based on recent performances. I’m surprised that Timeform have selected Tellherthename (12/1), who moved from Ben Pauling to the O’Neills and then Dan Skelton on 17 February for owners The Megsons. Karbau was 10th of 11 in last year’s Supreme (beaten 57l) and fell short when failing to stay in the Limestone Lad Hurdle on heavy last time out. It’s a lottery and I’ll probably have small interests in Joyeuse (10/1) and the strikingly distinctive Secret Squirrel (14/1) who beat Kabral Du Mathan over what is now the latter’s apparently preferred 2 miles in a Grade 2 at dodgy Windsor. However, they are very much in default of any others to select.

14:40 Mares’ Chase 2m4f

This is much easier. This is a head to head between defending champion Dinoblue (2/1), form varies from good to soft to heavy, and Panic Attack (5/2), all good to soft and soft, and I marginally prefer the latter, winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup here and the Coral (Hennessy) Gold Cup at Newbury. That really is top form.

15:20 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 3m

This is another head to head with Doctor Steinberg 3/1 and Thedeviluno 11/2. Thedeviluno is one of many runners for Paul Nolan at this Festival. He could win but my honest view is that not many Nolan horses have won at the highest level in recent years. On the other hand, I was very taken with Doctor Steinberg’s dominant win at the DRF, which apparently came as quite a surprise for connections. Timeform’s selection is Kazansky for Gordon Elliott, beaten by 8l at that DRF race, but I can’t have him. As the Racing Post verdict says “hammered by Doctor Steinberg at Leopardstown last time”.

16:00 Gold Cup 3m2f

In keeping with tradition, I’ll go through them all.

1. Envoi Allen (33/1) – a great horse for connections but, at 12, no chance
2. Firefox (33/1) – Just not good enough
3. Gaelic Warrior (7/2) – Beat Fact To File on soft/heavy and Il Etait Temps on heavy. Will he stay 3m 2f, particularly on soft ground? Will WP stick to his guns and take him out of the race?
4. Gold Tweet (125/1) – here for the day out at the Festival – no chance
5. Grey Dawning (14/1) – a nearly horse that isn’t up to this
6. Haiti Couleurs (5/1) – a serious contender, particularly if it’s very wet
7. Inothewayurthinkin (17/2) – defending champion who has singularly failed to follow up on that performance. No chance
8. Jango Baie(11/2) – another serious contender but was beaten by Handstands on heavy. Beaten on good in the King George which, despite what you might hear, is not the best form going into this race.
9. L’Homme Presse (50/1) – 11yo who was good in his day but now not good enough for this
10. Spillane’s Tower (16/1) – would be a dream win for Jimmy Mangan. Won the Cotswold Chase on soft ground, beating L’Homme Presse and Grey Dawning, but shouldn’t be good enough for this
11. The Jukebox Man (100/30f) – very marginal winner of the King George on good ground. Previously won good but not top races short of this distance on good/good to soft ground. Not the right profile for this

So, the verdict. As indicated in the introduction, this is all about the ground. If it’s regular soft ground then I’m very confident about Gaelic Warrior (7/2). If it’s bottomless then I’m equally confident about Haiti Couleurs (5/1) for the first Welsh winner since Nortons Coin?

16:40 Foxhunters’ Amateurs’ Chase 3m2f

I haven’t followed the Hunters as I have in previous years. According to the overnight tips it’s between It’s On The Line (2) (11/2), Wonderwall, last year’s winner, (3) (11/2), Con’s Roc (3) (6/1) and Panda Boy (4) (6/1). Timeform is going with Panda Boy so I’m happy to follow that guidance. He has the best form on regulation racecourses.

17:20 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle 2m4f

The lucky last! This has been a fertile ground for subsequent Festival winners. The roll of honour is Wodhooh (2025), Better (not Brighter) Days Ahead (2024), Iroko (2023), Banbridge (2022) and Galopin Des Champs (2021), all at decent prices. I had expected that I’d go for Kel Histoire (9/2f) who has been tipped widely in the previews but I am drawn to others, specifically Roc Dino (17/2) for Willie Mullins, East India Express (9/1) for Nicky Henderson and Air Of Entitlement (10/1 for Henry de Bromhead. As ever, like the Bumper on Wednesday, please watch the market in the run up to the race.

Good luck!

The bookies are having a wildly good Festival after two days, so it’s time to turn the tables with a better second half performance.

There’s a chance of a significant change in the ground as we switch to the new course. Overnight watering is under consideration with the ground having changed to good during Wednesday afternoon. However, 11mm of rain is forecast from 2.00 p.m., according to wonderful yr.no website.

13:20 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle 2m1f

Bambino Fever is the short priced favourite at 11/10 and should take this comfortably.

14:00 Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase 2m4f

Regent’s Stroll is the current favourite at 11/2 and Jordans Cross the most tipped. I prefer Meetmebythesea at an appealing 7/1 and who is running at the right distance off a decent weight (10-13).

14:40 Mares’ Hurdle 2m4f

Wodhooh (4/5) is the obvious choice, with course and distance form including last year’s Martin Pipe. However, for the second year running at the Festival, the Gordon Elliott form is a major concern, with no winners on the first two days.

With that in mind, my selection is Jade De Grugy at 5/2. There’s limited each way value with seven runners (Paddy Power 1/4 the odds 1-2), but I will also have a small interest in Feet Of A Dancer at 10/1.

15:20 Stayers’ Hurdle 3m

The Elliott form concern has no doubt played a part in Kabral Du Mathan (4/1) displacing Teahupoo (9/2) as favourite. This is a wide open race and strong cases can be made for Bob Olinger (13/2), Impose Toi (10/1) and Ma Shantou (6/1), with the latter being my selection.

16:00 Ryanair Chase 2m4f

Fact To File (8/11 nap) is 2/2 in Festival Grade 1s including this race last year. He would have been favourite had he run in the Gold Cup, but that route has been left clear for Gaelic Warrior. I see Impaire Et Passe (7/1) coming second and Jonbon (7/1) out of the first two for the first time in his career.

16:40 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle 3m

Unusually in a race like this, a strong case can be made for the long time favourite Supremely West (4/1). The form (3546) is nothing to write home about but that means that he’s off a good mark (10-11). C’est Different for Sam Thomas is good value at 15/2 and Lavida Adiva is a decent outsider at 22/1. Look out for place offers in this race. Paddy Power are offering six places and Skybet seven places, both at 1/5 odds and William Hill four places at 1/4 odds.

17:20 Kim Muir Amateurs’ Handicap Chase 3m2f

Timeform and Racing Post both have Prends Garde A Toi as their selection at 14/1, but the Gordon Elliott caveat is in play again. Jeriko Du Reponet (7/2f) is the most tipped and has the considerable benefit of Derek O’Connor on board. Waterford Whispers (9/2 from 8/1) has been widely tipped in the preview circuit

Paddy Power are offering 5/2 for a Bambino Fever/Fact To File double which I’ve taken.

Good luck!

13:20 Turners Novices’ Hurdle 2m5f

Ballyfad (11/1) has a tendency to go right which could inconvenience him, but he’s only been beaten once (by a short head on heavy ground). The biggest threat is No Drama This End (5/2).

14:00 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase 3m1f

Romeo Coolio is uncertain over three miles and I don’t like Final Demand after his last run. My selection is the improving Kaid d’Authie at 5/1.

14:40 BetMGM Cup (Coral) Handicap Hurdle 2m5f

As usual, I probably qwon’t have a bet in this race, which could easily go to a long shot. I like Storm Heart but 9/2 is very short for a race like this. Iberico Lord (9/1) is a good each way option

15:20 Cross Country Handicap 3m5f

Favori De Champdou (2/1) has the course form but Desertmore House (6/1) is a big threat.

16:00 Champion Chase 2m

Majborough (10/11) can’t be opposed, having been revitalised with cheekpieces. As so many have said in the build up, if he jumps he wins.

Quilixios is a good each way option at 16/1.

16:40 Grand Annual Handicap Chase 2m

Jazzy Matty has a strong shout to repeat his victory in this race last year. I’m going with the improver Vanderpoel (8/1) who should relish the ground.

17:20 Champion Bumper

Love Sign d’Aunou (5/1) is the obvious pick. I’ll probably also have a saver on Keep Him Company (11/2). However, as always in this race, keep a close eye on the market before the off.

Good luck!

Saturday

Leopardstown

13:15 Santo Sospir 11/2

13:50 Mange Tout 3/1

14:55 Romeo Coolio 8/15f

15:30 Galopin Des Champs 13/8f

4.05 More Coko 8/1

4.40 Charismatic Kid 7/4jf

Sandown

14:40 Kitzbuhel 11/10f

15:10 Henri The Second 3/1f

15:40 Mr Vango 7/4f

Musselburgh

13:10 Lord 9/2

13:43 Gibbs Island 14/1 e/w

14:20 Insurrection 7/2f

15:00 Absolutely Doyen 5/6f

Sunday

Leopardstown

12:40 Cousin Kate 7/1

13:10 Final Demand 4/9f

13:40 Ballyfad 4/1

14:10 Marine Nationale 2/1

15:20 El Fabiolo 10/1

Musselburgh

12:55 Fantasy World 4/1

15:40 Sonigino 5/1