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The Aintree Festival has become so much more than the National and this year is a perfect example with a mixture of stars returning from Cheltenham and others saved for here.
In the spirit of 2025, I’ve added an AI image based on the content of this post. At first glance, the first and third are without jockeys and the chances of a stewards’ enquiry with that width of track is 100%.
We’re all enjoying the weather, which is often good at this meeting but, on the back of an extended dry spell, attention obviously turns to the ground. The forecast is dry and sunny with 19 degrees on Thursday, 18 degrees on Friday and 15 degrees on Saturday. The latest official going at the time of writing (1 April) is good to soft, good in places (Mildmay) and good to soft (National). Going stick readings are Mildmay Chase 4.9, Mildmay Hurdle 4.5 and National 4.5. This isn’t surprising because there has been watering of 50mm on both courses since w/c 17 March (that’s a lot!) and continuing with an average of 5-7.5mm daily this week. For the National in particular, this is a no brainer on safety grounds, so we should have the perfect combination of great weather and suitable ground.
UPDATE: Regardless of the official report, it was good ground on Thursday and will continue to dry in the warm and breezy weather.
Cheltenham was not great for this blog but my goodness we were not alone in this respect, given what was regarded as a week full of unexpected results, particularly in the championship races.
Thursday
13:45 Manifesto Novices’ Chase 2m 4f Grade 1
I’ve covered this above. Croke Park (4/1) has been targeted for this and I have him comfortably ahead of Impaire Et Passe. Jango Baie could be very good but effectively picked up the pieces when winning the Arkle, having made mistakes at the third and second last. Gidleigh Park beat Caldwell Potter at the newly restored jumps course at Windsor but we already know that form from there should be treated with considerable caution.
Result
Croke Park seventh. Weakened badly. Is there still a problem with the Elliott yard?
14:20 4-y-o Juvenile Hurdle 2m 1f Grade 1
As predicted above, Sky Bet are going seven places e/w in this 13 runner race. Paddy Power and bet365 are offering six places with the added benefit of best odds guaranteed.
I’ll therefore be taking the 25/1 on offer for Gibbs Island. There is much excitement on the owners’ pages and a strong belief that the poor performance in the Triumph was a blip. He’ll also be suited by ground and course. Fred Winter winner Puturhandstogether is the right favourite at 13/8 but I’ll take a chance with Live Conti at 13/2 who is unbeaten and won very well at Wetherby last time out. He’s come to Dan Skelton from Noel George and Amanda Zetterholm and was bought by Sir Alex Ferguson and friends, no doubt with this in mind.
Result
Live Conti drifted to 16/1 before the start and was an excellent second to Murcia. Gibbs Island is not good enough for Grade 1s and expectations need to be lowered considerably.
14:55 Golden Miller Chronograph Bowl Chase 3m 1f Grade 1
It’s good to see the name Golden Miller properly restored to the name of a Grade 1 race. What is registered as the Golden Miller Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham was this year called the Jack Richards Novices’ Chase, following in the line of other sponsors including Jewson, JLT, Marsh and Turners. Golden Miller was one of the greatest NH horses ever, winning five consecutive Gold Cups from 1932 to 1936 and taking in the Grand National in 1934. He was bred at the yard of Laurence Geraghty, Barry’s grandfather.
Anyway, on to the race! Will I go to the well with Ahoy Senor (6/1), notwithstanding this season’s form of 3PPF? Yes, I will. He was running perfectly well when falling in the Gold Cup. Above all, his best form is at Aintree and he was second in this last year (behind Gerri Colombe) and was beaten by Shishkin in the 2023 renewal. He’s a spring horse and the ground will help with staying concerns. Spillane’s Tower needs soft ground and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s withdrawn on the day. Gaelic Warrior has been running over two miles recently and this looks like an experiment after an in and out season and he still has jumping quirks. That leaves Grey Dawning as the biggest threat. He won a four runner race at Kelso last time out, was pulled up in the King George and was beaten by Royale Pagaille on very soft ground in the Betfair Chase. Ahoy Ahoy!
Result
Ahoy Senor was fifth of six finishers and it’s finally time to abandon ship.
15:30 Aintree Hurdle 2m 4f Grade 1
I would have expected Constitution Hill to be shorter than 10/11 for this. Time and again, experience has shown that once the bubble has burst, things are often not so straightforward. As mentioned above, he’s won this before in 2023, beating Sharjah (20/1) and Zanahiyr (14/1) in what was by common consent, his least impressive performance until this year’s fall in the Champion Hurdle. He will most probably win but I’m going to have another go with Lossiemouth (13/8) who was so impressive over the same distance in the Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. She is obviously none the worse for her fall at the DRF and appears to be at the peak of her game.
Result
Lossiemouth won very well after the predicted further problem with Constitution Hill. In my view, he wouldn’t have won had he stayed up.
16:05 Foxhunters’ Amateurs’ Chase (National) 2m 5f
The first race over the National fences. However, as with the National itself, it’s not the challenge that it was and that’s probably contributed to 3/1f, 9/2 and 7/2 winners in the last three years. Everyone seems to be with this year’s 4/1 favourite Willitgoahead for Gordon Elliott, who was third in the Cheltenham Hunters’ Chase at the Festival. However, he’s not been over these fences and was staying on over a much longer trip. Famous Clermont won this in 2023 and has his preferred ground. However, I’m going to stick with My Drogo at 6/1 and ridden by Will Biddick, jockey of Famous Clermont for his win. He’s comfortably the best of these before turning to hunter chases, having won the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle in 2021. His impressive win in the Walrus at Haydock was a perfect prep.
Result
My Drogo put in what looked like a flawless round of jumping at his first attempt over these fences and was a fine fourth. As a 10-y-o hunter chaser there may be more to come.
16:40 Red Rum Chase 2m
This is an inferior renewal and, frankly, I don’t fancy any of them. Current favourite My Mate Mozzie has decent form, most recently when fourth in the Grand Annual but he’s a terrible finisher and hasn’t won since a novices’ chase in October 2023. You have to think that he just doesn’t stay over the minimum trip.
Primoz was tailed off in the same race, hampered by dodgy jumping.
Petit Tonnerre has been improving recently and was unluckily brought down last time out in a Class 2 at Doncaster, following a win in a similar race at the same course. He’s my reluctant selection at 8/1.
Result
As expected, My Mate Mozzie failed to shine. Petit Tonnerre was a disappointing ninth of thirteen finishers. Well done Sans Bruit for his commanding repeat win. Bryony Frost is probably ruing having not been able to return from France and is hopefully OK after a very nasty fall at the water jump at Auteuil earlier in the day. It was odd that she hadn’t been booked for any rides in France on Saturday and apparently notified Paul Nicholls of her unavailability to ride Stay Away Fay in the National by text.
17:15 Mares’ Bumper 2m 1f Grade 2
Unsurprisingly, I have no idea about any of these. Jackie Hobbs is the best tipped at 15/2 but I’ll watch the market as usual in races of this nature and, as matters stand, go with current favourite Seo Linn (11/4) who won well at Cheltenham last November.
Result
Seo Linn duly won, showing a lot of determination to do so and is one to watch
Friday
On Thursday, it turned out to be good ground all over in my opinion and, as predicted, Spillane’s Tower was duly withdrawn. It turns out that no matter how much you water, you can’t replicate the real thing. The bubble has duly burst with Constitution Hill and they need to think seriously about running him again, before he does himself some proper harm. In summary, another WP Mullins benefit, winning four consecutive Grade 1s. On to another great day of racing.
13:45 Mildmay Novices’ Chase 3m 1f Grade 1
Current favourite Handstands (9/4) has had a decent break since winning the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase. However, that was on heavy ground so there’s a question about whether these very different conditions will suit. If they do, then he may prove to be very good value.
Dancing City was a disappointment when last in the Brown Advisory and, even with the WP factor, I can’t back him after that.
Caldwell Potter (9/2) won the Jack Richards at Cheltenham very well with a front running performance. However, that was a Grade 2 and just 22 days ago. I think that he might suit the ground and track so I’m going to take a chance at 9/2.
Result
An impressive win by Caldwell Potter. He only just made it and will no doubt now enjoy a summer break. I think that he would have won regardless of the fallers.
14:20 Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f
This is Aintree’s equivalent of the big field hurdles at Cheltenham. However, there have been two winning favourites in the last three years, sandwiched by an 8/1 shot. Much vaunted Kopeck De Mee was 20th of 24, beaten by 52 lengths in the Martin Pipe, but is currently 7/1f for this. I was on Impose Toi (15/2) in the Coral Cup in which he was a fine second. I’m backing him to go one better here for Nicky, Nico and JP, with an each way saver.
Result
Impose Toi looked out of sorts and was towards the rear in running. He therefore did very well to finish fourth for the each way payout. Kopeck De Mee shaped much better this time and was only just beaten by 14/1 Wellington Arch.
14:55 Top Novices’ Hurdle 2m 1/2f Grade 1
Romeo Coolio (6/4f) was third in the Supreme (Salvator Mundi was fifth), and he has a much easier task here. The concern is the Elliott form. However, I think that the only serious threat is Tripoli Flyer who comes here having won the Grade 2 Dovecote at Kempton and bypassing Cheltenham.
Result
The Supreme placings were reversed with Salvator Mundi running out a ready winner by seven lengths from Romeo Coolio. Tripoli Flyer was let down by poor jumping and was never a threat. Salvator is now a horse to watch.
15:30 Melling Chase 2m 4f Grade 1
I think that we now know for sure (we probably did already) that Jonbon (4/7f) and Cheltenham don’t get on. Elsewhere, his chase form is 16 unbeaten and he’ll surely add to that tally here.
El Fabiolo was beaten by Senecia last time out and that’s not in the same league. He doesn’t seem to be the same horse as when winning the Arkle and a Punchestown Grade 1 a couple of years ago.
Result
This one went as expected with El Fabiolo struggling before falling and Jonbon extending his unbeaten run away from Cheltenham.
16:05 Topham Chase (National) 2m 5f
Beware the colours in this race. The joint favourites, Blue Lord and James Du Berlais both run for Munir/Souede and third favourite Bad also runs in shades of green. Townend’s choice is Blue Lord and James Du Berlais was second in this race last year. Both run off 11st 8lbs.
I’m also interested in The Goffer (16/1) and Gentleman de Mee (33/1) (second in last year’s Champion Chase) but my selection is Excello for Nicky Henderson/Nico De Boinville at 12/1 e/w and carrying just 10st 2lbs.
Result
Excello was thereabouts until making a serious error two out. However, it was a great result for the each way selections with Gentleman De Mee and The Goffer taking first and third.
16:40 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle 3m 1/2f Grade 1
I’m with the joint favourite Califet En Vol (4/1), again for Henderson/de Boinville. He won the Sidney Banks last time out over what was probably an inadequate trip and more notable was his second to The New Lion in the Challow the time before that. He was second in his only point to point over three miles, but this is his first attempt at tackling three miles under rules. Kim Bailey’s Moon Rocket at 12/1 is probably the best of the rest.
Result
Califet En Vol was prominent for much of the race, leading before three out but weakend badly into sixth. I was delighted to see Jamie Snowden win his first Grade 1 with Julius Des Pictons, ridden by Gain Sheehan.
17:15 Conditionals’/Amateurs’ Handicap Hurdle 2m 1/2f
The last two winners of this race were 40/1 shots and there’s every chance of a similarly long odds winner. However, I’ve followed Afadil (6/1) for Paul Nicholls and with Freddie Gingell on board. He was just shaded in a tight finish in the Imperial Cup and I think that he’s te best candidate.
As ever, beware the Tony Martin current favourite Hamsiyann running off 10st 2lbs.
Result
Afadil was never in contention and, as predicted, the race was won by a long shot in the shape of She’s A Saint at 25/1. Slugger looked all over the winner two out but found absolutely nothing on the run in.
Saturday
Watch out for the non-runners, mainly on account of the ground.
13:20 Handicap Hurdle 3m 1/2f
This is a very difficult race to weigh up with decent cases to be made for the first six in the market. I’ll not be having a bet, but for Placepot purposes I suggest Jeriko Du Reponet and Bill Joyce.
UPDATE: Bo Zenith, Jeriko Du Reponet, Maximilian, Navajo Indy and Nurse Susan are non-runners
13:55 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle 2m4f Grade 1
Triumph Hurdle second Lulamba (evens) is a confident selection. He’s been routed here instead of the 4-y-o hurdle on Thursday and therefore benefits from a significant 10lbs weight allowance. Ground and distance should be fine and his form is well ahead of the opposition. This should be ideal.
UPDATE: Non-runners are Fingle Bridge, Lulamba and Moon Phases. Alternative selection is Regent’s Stroll.
14:30 Handicap Chase 3m 1f
It’s no suprise that Myretown is a non-runner and, as previously noted, he wouldn’t have been my choice.
Sam Brown won this in 2022 and was second last year, but I can’t back a 13-y-o. Peaky Boy switched from Nicky Henderson to Jonjo O’Neill on 10 February and on 15 February put in a really poor performance at Ascot. Mel Rowley’s Happygolucky was a flattering fourth in the Ultima and Cruz Control was pulled up last time out in the Rowland Meyrick (not the race it was) at Wetherby. Weveallbeencaught stayed on to take fourth in the Kim Muir but was never a threat. Shakem Up’arry is in here as a consolation after failing to make the cut for the National.
So, having dealt with the opposition, you’ve probably gathered that I’m strongly in favour of one of my horses to follow this season, Imperial Saint, currently the 11/2f. He’s been campaigned at a high level and was fourth in the Pendil Novices’ Chase last time out. He was third at Cheltenham before that, beating Grand National contender Iroko, who put in a controversial performance (see my National preview). Before that, he won here last December, beating Richmond Lake. He’s a novice open to improvement and, again, a confident selection.
UPDATE: Doctor Ken, Heltenham, Myretown and Peaky Boy are non-runners.
15:05 Ivy Liverpool Hurdle 3m 1/2f Grade 1
Teahupoo failed to defend his Cheltenham Stayers’ title, having won in 2024 and third in 2023. He was no match for Lossiemouth in the Hatton’s Grace last December. Above all, he’s known as a soft ground horse and I think that it’s all against him here. In contrast,
Kitzbuhel, 4/1 for Willie Mullins is on a three timer, having swerved Cheltenham and winning the Red Mills Trial at Gowran in February last time out. This is his first time over an extended trip but I see that as a positive. Another on the horses to follow list.
UPDATE: Dashel Drasher is currently the only non-runner. I wouldn’t be surprised if Teahupoo gets taken out.
16:00 Randox Grand National (National) 4m 2 1/2f
It may not be the race of yore but that’s just not possible in current times. What it has become is a race that attracts high quality horses and is a fairer measure of their ability. The ground is a significant feature this week. No matter how much they have watered, the drying ground will play its part and bring into play some who would otherwise have staying concerns. That said, it’s still four and a quarter miles. The latest going report (at 3.30 p.m. Friday) is good all round on the Mildmay course and good to soft all round on the National course. The jockeys have reported that it’s on the firmer side of good and I agree. Friday’s Topham was won in a significantly faster time than last year.
Bear in mind that the race will almost certainly be won by an Irish horse and, as you’ll see below, I have them taking the first six.
So, here we go:
1. I Am Maximus *** (6/1)
An impressive winner last year. However, top weight and a rating of 167 are statistical negatives. A distant eighth in the Irish Gold Cup and pulled up in the Savills Chase, when reported to have a respiratory infection. Nonetheless, Willie says he’s had an ideal prep. Attracted support to become clear favourite after Willie’s other winners at the meeting but that’s absolutely irrelevant in this context.
18. Iroko * (10/1)
Iroko earned one of the longest comments in running I have seen in recent years when fourth in the Betfair Handicap Chase at Cheltenham in January. It’s worth quoting in full:
Towards rear, not fluent and jockey lost iron briefly 3 out, headway 2 out, went fourth before last where not fluent, kept on (inquiry held into running and riding; jockey stated that his instructions were to sit midfield and to try and get gelding jumping, having felt he lost his confidence after falling in his previous run at Ascot, adding that he had formed this opinion having schooled gelding at home; he reported that he made a mistake at 3rd last fence, causing him to lose his left iron, and having regained his stirrup found himself stuck to the inside, leaving him unable to improve his position until after 2nd last fence; he added that he felt in top gear throughout the race and that gelding’s jumping had suffered late on as a result, leading him to jumping last fence slowly; he finished by stating that when taking all of the above into account, he felt that his hands and heels riding up the straight led to him obtaining best possible placing; his explanation was noted) (op 13/2)
A blatant attempt to secure a good handicap mark for this (152)? There’s no doubt that this has been the long term plan. Yet to show that he stays.
5. Hewick *** (12/1)
The ground is a big plus. King George and bet365 Gold Cup winner and would be quite the story for Shark.
16. Perceval Legallois *****(12/1)
Won a decent hurdle at the DRF which is the typical sort of good prep for this. More notably won the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown at Christmas.
10. Stumptown ** (12/1)
On a five timer but (putting aside Tiger Roll) I’m not a subscriber to the idea that winners of invariably slowly run cross country or banks races are the best candidates for this.
19. Intense Raffles **** (14/1)
Was vying for favouritism just a week ago and seems to be overlooked. Was just second to Nick Rockett in the Bobbyjo and is a really good place option. Winner of last year’s Irish National.
8. Minella Cocooner **** (14/1)
Third to Intense Raffles in last year’s Irish National and second to Nick Rockett in the Bobbyjo last time out. A serious contender.
28. Vanillier ** (14/1)
Second in the 2023 race and a good option for the places this year.
17. Kandoo Kid * (20/1)
Eighth in the Greatwod Gold Cup last time out. Nicholls/Cobden but unlikely to place.
30. Hyland ** (22/1)
Nicky Henderson has never won this race but he brings in decent form and has a good weight. Never been beyond three miles but is a class horse who could run into a place for Harry Cobden.
12. Beauport * (25/1)
Will not be suited by the ground.
26. Meetingofthewaters **** (25/1)
The best mid-ranking outsider. No decent form but there are strong indicators that he could be well suited by this and represents the combined forces of WP Mullins, JP McManus and Danny Mullins.
32. Three Card Brag * (28/1)
The shortest in the betting for Gordon Elliott and does not appeal to me.
3. Nick Rockett *** (28/1)
The second best of the mid-ranking outsiders. Won the Bobbyjo, beating Intense Raffles and Minella Cocooner, so it’s reasonable to enquire why they are ahead in the market. The answer is that, for bizarre reasons that I won’t go into here, Intense Raffles is now 15lbs better at the weights. It’s really time to have a look at those “special” weights for the National.
7. Appreciate It * (33/1)
Will not stay.
4. Grangeclare West *
Fragile and too in and out, notwithstanding second to Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup.
11. Hitman * (33/1)
Hasn’t lived up to expectations.
6. Minella Indo * (33/1)
Won the Gold Cup in 2021 and third in last year’s National but not even Rachael on board has contracted the odds.
20. Senior Chief ** (40/1)
Could outperform the odds.
15. Threeunderthrufive **(40/1)
Could just make the places with Harry Skelton on board.
13. Bravemansgame * (50/1)
Not the horse that he was.
34. Duffle Coat * (50/1)
The last to make the cut and no chance.
27. Monbeg Genius * (50/1)
Making up the numbers.
24. Coko Beach * (66/1)
Consistent underperformer here and nothing to suggest any change.
33. Twig * (66/1)
Utterly unsuited to this. Not a hint of a chance.
23. Broadway Boy * (80/1)
The odds are right.
22. Fil Dor ** (80/1)
Now then. A stand out among the long odds. Notable that Sam Ewing has chosen this one. He’s been highly campaigned which makes his recent form of 12433 all the more impressive. A definite place contender, albeit never tried over anything like this distance.
25. Stay Away Fay * (80/1)
Dreadful form and it’s a long time since he won the Albert Bartlett.
14. Chantry House **
He slogged out a win in the Betfair Handicap Chase on New Year’s Day at Cheltenham, which showed a glimmer of the previous form. However, he didn’t follow up with his fifth in the Cotswold Chase and he’s only just scraped two stars.
21. Idas Bay * (100/1)
No chance at all.
2. Royale Pagaille * (100/1)
It’s a complete mystery to me why he’s here. Conditions could not be worse for him and I think that this is a bad call. Thought about giving him no stars.
9. Conflated * (125/1)
Good in his day but there’s no need for this.
31. Celebre d’Allen * (150/1)
Won last time out at Bangor, which is about the right level. Was fourth in the 2023 Becher Chase but he’s 13 and won’t feature (I’m being kind with that assessment).
29. Horantzau D’Airy * (150/1)
Former (note) Willie Mullins horse who was second in the Kerry and Munster Nationals but, with the best will in the world, not in this league. Not the worst of the outsiders.
So, here’s the 1-2-3-4-5-6
- Perceval Legallois (12/1)
- Hewick (12/1)
- Minela Cocooner (14/1)
- I Am Maximus (13/2)
- Intense Raffles (14/1)
- Fil Dor (80/1)
Incidentally, that’s an Irish first six.
UPDATE: No non-runners
17:00 Maghull Novices’ Chase 2m Grade 1
A Grade 1 after the National and very worthy of attention as Aintree’s follow up to the Arkle. I’m very surprised that Kalif Du Berlais is 3/1 after being comprehensively beaten by Handstands and Jango Baie in the Scilly Isles at Sandown (last and also beaten by Mark Of Gold at 22/1). It’s 16/1 bar outside the first three in the betting so I see it as a head to head between L’Eau Du Sud (Skelton) and Only By Night (Cromwell).
L’Eau Du Sud weakened badly when fourth in the Arkle (Touch Me Not was last beaten by 55 lengths), having previously won the Kingmaker at Warwick when putting in a far from foot perfect round. He was weakening in that race as well and won at 1/5f by one length. He beat Touch Me Not again in the Henry VIII, having made a serious blunder at the sixth, and that form has not stood up.
I’m therefore with Gavin Cromwell’s Only By Night (9/4) who was only just second to Jango Baie in the Arkle, following consective wins at Exeter, Cork and Tipperary.
UPDATE: All the Saturday morning money is for Kalif Du Berlais who is currently 2/1 favourite. I still can’t have him.
17:35 Weatherbys Bumper 2m 1f Grade 2
This is another of those Aintree races that tends to turn up unexpected results, with 14/1, 18/1 and 28/1 winners in the last three years, none of which have progressed.
Current favourite Mossy Fen Road won a very moderate bumper at Wetherby in February. Green Splendour is Willie’s only runner in this race, for Munir/Souede, but never threatened in the Grade 2 DRF bumper.
I’m therefore not alone in going for El Cairos (11/2) for the Moores and David Maxwell. He was seriously hampered when fifth in the Champion Bumper and can do better here.
UPDATE: Non-runners are Blofeld, Camberwell, Edward Sexton and, sadly, El Cairos. As a result, no selection for me.
