One of the best ways to cut through the hype with politics predictions is to check the betting markets. With that in mind, here’s the latest information from Paddy Power politics and others. Hot off the press is that YouGov have reported that Reform have overtaken Conservatives in their latest poll. The much talked about “crossover” looks like it might be happening, albeit that it won’t be reflected in seats won.
How bad is it for Rishi?
This, from Rob Ford on Twitter (@robfordmancs) suggests that it is very bad:
“Rishi Sunak’s net satisfaction rating of -53 is the worst recorded by MORI one month out from an election in all of the elections they have covered since 1979 – worse than Gordon Brown in 2010 (-36), John Major in 1997 (-46) or James Callaghan in 1979 (-33).
“The net rating of the Sunak government is, at -71, the worst approval of any British government MORI have asked about on the brink of an election…
“More than two thirds of British voters tell MORI the government doesn’t deserve to be re-elected next month, nearly three quarters say it is time for a change, and four fifths say the government has done a bad job. All of these figures are now at the highest level since Sunak took office…
“While a miracle of late persuasion cannot be ruled out, at present the most relevant question for Conservative MPs isn’t “can we win?” but rather “can any of us survive?”
You can read the full article here: https://swingometer.substack.com/p/the-half-time-verdict
By the way, tonight’s polling makes it clear that things have got a lot worse for the Tories since it was written. The D-Day debacle is now filtering though.
This is how bad it could be based on the latest polling:
I’m stocking up on the popcorn for an all-nighter on 4 July.
UK Election
Labour majority 1/33
Labour / Lib Dem coalition 33/1
Conservatives minority 66/1
Labour most seats 1/200
Alison McGovern to win Birkenhead 1/200
Nigel Farage to win Clacton 1/4
Penny Mordaunt and Jacob Rees-Mogg both to lose seats 4/6
US Election
Donald Trump 4/6
Joe Biden 13/8
Michelle Obama 20/1
Brexit
Rejoin as a full member before 2026 7/1
Not rejoin as a full member before 2026 1/20
France
Marine Le Pen to be next French president (2027) 3/1
There are no betting markets for the next French election in late June/early July. I suspect that this is down to a veto.
As a guide, the European election results which prompted Macron to call a parliamentary election (not for President) produced a resounding result for Rassemblement National (the latest manifestation of the National Front) and their charismatic 29 year old leader Jordan Bardella. The leader of the centre right Republicains has caused uproar by siding with and supporting Bardella in an alliance.
Rassemblement National won 31.4% of the vote last Sunday, with Macron’s Renew alliance getting just 14.6% and the centre left 13.8%.
The Dordogne is very much in the Rassemblement National camp. Here are a few results:
Saint Martin de Gurson
Rassemblement National alliance 49.8%
Villefranche de Lonchat
Rassemblement National alliance 51.3%
Montpon-Menesterol
Rassemblement National alliance 45.9%
Saint-Emilion
Rassemblement National alliance 31.5%
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