What are the odds of WP Mullins’ utter domination of day one of the Festival? Well, pretty good in my view. As usual I’ve done my best (not hard work!) to catch most of the main races of the season with a view to preparing a Cheltenham Festival shortlist and here is part one. I’ve avoided consideration of alternatives for now but they will follow. This is the hard list! I’ve avoided the “support races” because it’s too early to know whether some of the big ones will go.
Tuesday
Day one is therefore, in the early part, a favourites’ fiesta.
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Douvan (7/4). Has been put forward as WP’s best shot although what to make of that is very debatable. What is not in doubt are this horse’s credentials and the Racing Post has today reported that Mullins thinks that the ground will suit.
Arkle
Un de Sceaux (4/7). A single seal (in the legal sense) is the translation and this one must seal victory because he is, quite simply, miles ahead of the opposition and that is his running style. Prepared perfectly for this and unopposable. Avoided Cheltenham and beat the best in France (Gemix) last season.
Champion Hurdle
Faugheen (5/4). My view is simply this: why would he be beaten? A perfect record to date and it’s not just the form – it’s the manner of his victories. Proven at Cheltenham last year in the Neptune (admittedly not against the toughest opposition) but, critically, with the perfect mix of speed and stamina for the hill.
Mares’ Hurdle
Annie Power (4/7) would be a serious contender in the championship races but, because of the others in the yard / same ownership, she is the natural successor to Quevega. In my view she’s much better and running at her correct distance (assuming, fairly safely that she goes for this one).
Wednesday
Neptune
Here’s my first big odds call. I was very impressed by Beast of Burden (16/1) at Bangor just about a month ago. Rebecca Curtis’ horse has only had other outings (twice) at Ffos Las and once when second in a maiden hurdle at Newbury but I’m taking the view that this is a big improver who has been given his best distance and is a proper “dark horse”.
RSA Chase
I’m a big fan of The Young Master (7/1). If this horse was in a bigger yard he would be much shorter. Geraghty is booked and I think that he’ll have a dream ride on a horse that I bet some of the really big owners would love to have. Cheltenham winning form against decent opposition in an amateurs’ race over 3m 1f on the old course is a big plus.
Champion Chase
Oh, this is the big dilemma. Sticking to my rule I’m not going to mention the obvious contenders and the new pretender but I’m going against them all and sticking with Cheltenham specialist Champagne Fever (a generous 5/1). This horse will relish the likely ground (unlike his most recent but nonetheless winning outing at Gowran) and, in my view, his ideal distance. Don’t forget his outing in the Arkle last year – the moral winner.
Champion Bumper
This is always subject to the betting on the day. Ricci says that Bordini (7/1) is the choice but we’ll wait and see.
So, there they are. A decent mix of favourites on day one and longer odds on day two. I’ve not watched any previews so these selections are mine alone. If you’re not used to racing betting then I strongly suggest a few combination bets on day one and a few selective bets on day two. Good luck!
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