Well it all goes a bit crazy betting wise about now. Putting aside the bookies’ offers the Betfair exchange can be volatile to say the least. However it is still the most informative guide.
With that in mind, here goes.
1.30 Supreme Novices’
I think that Douvan is the riskiest of the big four for WP Mullins. Definitely not the first choice for this at the start of the season and, with form that you have to believe for what it is (and no more), What you have to do is believe the hype (unlike the proven Faugheen over his entire career). L’Ami Serge is the only serious opponent and I can’t have him.
Douvan 2.76 win ***
2.05 Arkle Chase
Why are people thinking that Un de Sceaux will fall? It’s a novices’ chase and all are uncertain in that regard. This is another two horse race (Vibrato Valtat is the other) and as many have said, if he doesn’t fall he wins. He won’t fall.
Un de Sceaux 1.8 win ***** (nap)
2.40 Ultima Chase 3m 1f Grade 3
The first big challenge of the day and to be avoided other than for the placepot. However, again there are few serious candidates. I can’t have Pendra or The Druids Nephew and I’m therefore looking at Mendip Express, second to my bet of the week Beast of Burden at Bangor last month, plus a super second in the Becher Chase, Ned Stark (seriously unexposed) and Gevrey Chambertin (a good each way option as well as Friday’s wine choice!).
Mendip Express 13 win *
Gevrey Chambertin ** 16 place *
3.20 Champion Hurdle
Faugheen the… Ruby’s chosen him against Hurricane Fly – not exactly a surprise but nonetheless significant. I definitively cannot have The New One – just not good enough. Jezki is the threat – winner of an inferior race last year but reportedly better than ever on his last workout before travelling. The others make up the numbers. I don’t see any reason why Faugheen won’t win this easily.
Faugheen (excellent value at) 2.2 win **** (next best)
4.00 Mares’ Hurdle
Now a Grade 1 and the two time Grade 1 winner is Annie Power. I’ve been a fan of this horse, primarily because of her running style and would have chosen her for last year’s Champion Hurdle (had she run). Her valiant 1 1/2 lengths defeat to More Of That over the wrong distance bottomed her. That is a problem. She is the second riskiest option for WP. We have to trust that he’s got her ready. The Punchestown win against massively inferior opposition last May proved nothing.
However, if she even 60% she beats the opposition, primarily Glens Melody, another WP horse. I won’t be in the least surprised if she hoses up or if she is pulled up. I suspect that it will be one or the other. Not a betting option for me (unless I’m desperate!).
Annie Power 1.73 * (at the price)
4.40 Toby Balding 4m Chase – Amateurs
It’s easy to think that this is a handicap but it’s not! It’s an amateurs’ race full of handicappers. That’s important to remember as is the distance. And that said, the field can be reduced to a few serious candidates. They are: Very Wood (5), Cause of Causes (8), Sego Success (6), The Job Is Right (8) and, as an outsider, Broadway Buffalo (22).
My choice is Cause Of Causes. Excellent jockey, campaigned against the best of the Irish and with good Cheltenham form (Kim Muir second). I know that they think highly of Very Wood (moved here from the RSA). He beat The Job Is Right and no others in a beginners’ chase and I think that people are carried away by the idea of his win in what was a very poor Albert Bartlett.
Cause Of Causes 9.4 ***
5.15 CHAPS Novices’ Chase 2m 4f+
Now, I can’t believe that Keltus has got in as joint bottom weight, even off 11st 4lb. This horse was fourth in last year’s Fred Winter (well ahead of Violet Dancer – see later in the week) and could have been in proper graded races but is ideally placed here. Thomas Crapper and Generous Ransom are respected but this is our tidy little winner to end the card on a high.
I’ll also keep an eye out for Horizontal Speed (Hobbs/Johnson), sired by Vertical Speed, who was also responsible for the best racing day of my life (even in defeat), Quatre Heures (Vertical Speed/Macyrienne).
Keltus 9.5 **
So, here they are for day one and, as usual, ready to be revisited at about 6.00 p.m. tomorrow.
I recommend this placepot:
1. L’Ami Serge
2. Un de Sceaux
3. Mendip Express, Gevrey Chambertin
4. Glens Melody
5. Cause of Causes
6. Thomas Crapper
I also think that, if ever there was a day, this is the one for a Lucky 15, but not the obvious one!
2.05 Cheltenham – Un de Sceaux
2.20 Sedgfield – Jennys Melody
3.15 Cheltenham – Faugheen
4.15 Sedgfield – Honourable Guest
Good luck!!!
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