I’m taking a slightly different approach for Saturday with only a few decent races and some very short prices to contend with.
Newcastle’s Eider Chase was first run in 1952 and is one of the most prestigious long distance (4m 1f) races in the calendar. However, it has had more than its fair share of abandonments and some frankly unedifying finishes with obviously knackered horses plodding over the line. Thursday’s deluge has led to the latest going report being heavy, soft in places, with a going stick reading of (a very deep) 3.8. The average for heavy ground is 5.2 and the lower the number, the heavier the ground so it’s pretty clear what we’re in for. For that reason I am discounting the card for betting purposes.
That leaves the Kempton Park TV races, plus a couple of decent events at Fairyhouse. Regular readers will know that, from my point of view, the 1.50 Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle (2m) and 2.25 Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase (2m 4f 110yds) self-select in the shape of Charli Parcs (8/15) and Frodon (4/7).
Here is Nicky Henderson on Charli Parcs:
Matt Chapman (@MCYeeehaaa), rather like Yanworth and Yorkhill in my latest Cheltenham preview, divides opinion in the racing community. However, what can’t be denied is his form with selections in his Sun column and here is what he has to say about Frodon:
The 2.25pm at Kempton is the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase, which is just over two and a half miles. On ratings this is a two horse race between FRODON and Charmix, with Gold Present needing to bounce back to his best. Frodon should win for Sam Twiston-Davies and Paul Nicholls.
He is also “Templegate’s” selection:
PAUL NICHOLLS should continue his domination of the Pendil Chase.
The champion trainer has won this novices’ contest an incredible eight times in the last 11 years.
His FRODON has plenty of experience for a five-year-old. He rattled up a hat-trick of chase wins in the autumn and he went on to land the valuable Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham in December.
There’s no doubt he got the run of the race out in front when scoring at Musselburgh but that should have set him up nicely for today.
Charmix is the big threat. He was a bit unlucky when unseating at Exeter last time and I’m expecting Frodon to allow him to lead. But he goes very well on testing ground and today’s surface might not suit him as well.
Gold Present looked good on his chase debut. If he can put a wretched Boxing Day effort over course and distance behind him he would have to have a chance.
So the challenge is now to introduce some variables with a view to getting a decent accumulator. Trebles and a Lucky 15 look like the best options to me so our next stop is…
Kempton
3.00 Dovecote Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m
Previously won by Winter Escape (2016), Irving (2014) and Grumeti (2012), this is not a generally good pointer for Cheltenham. However, this is a good renewal and offers workable prices for today’s exercise. I was unimpressed by Peter the Mayo Man last time out. While I’m a fan of Ludlow and looking forward to a day out there on 23 March, I don’t see two wins there for River Wylde as a plan for a championship horse. I think that Capitaine is vulnerable and I was very taken by Elgin, who was a very impressive winner on Boxing Day. I accept that, with the flop of Jenkins, there is a question about what he beat but he did it in a very taking style. The currently available 4/1 puts a bit of juice into the acca.
3.35 Betbright Chase (Grade 3) 3m
I have to declare an irrational like for one in this race in the shape of Irish Saint (11/2), behind current favourite Double Shuffle (5/1). This son of Saint des Saints by a mare from Mansonnien got tired in Ascot’s Silver Cup on the same ground as today after a long break and this race looks like perfect placement. We need to make a call to add value to the combination bet and this one makes sense.
It’s interesting that Tom Segal (Pricewise) has avoided Kempton save for Aso at 16/1 which, admittedly, is a good price but not my idea of the winner.
OR…
Should we look across the water and take a look at Fairyhouse’s feature races. Incidentally, the reason why I don’t go for the subsidiary and lower class races elsewhere is that it’s too easy for people to place decent runners in them with no clue based on the form. There’s nothing wrong with that, in my opinion, but it makes no sense to plump for them from our betting perspective.
Fairyhouse
1.45 Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m
Landofhopeandglory lost nothing in his first defeat to Bapaume on St Stephen’s Day at Leopardstown, on the back of three wins. He’s now 9/4 behind Dinaria des Obeax (10/11) who Gordon Elliott sees as a potential Triumph horse. I don’t, but does that mean that we can choose the selection for the multiples?
3.30 Bobbyjo Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f
So here is the current betting: Pleasant Company (Mullins/Walsh) 9/4, Baie des Isles (O’Sullivan/Katie Walsh) 5/2, Wounded Warrior (Noel Meade/B Cooper) 11/2. Other runners include Thunder And Roses (Mouse Morris./Davy Russell), and Lord Windermere (J Culloty/ Paul Townend). I have no idea which one will win this race, save that it won’t be Lord Windermere! One to avoid.
Sunday racing
3.00 Fontwell National Spirit Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m
I have to mention this race because it’s attracted the best field for years and has a Cheltenham dimension in the shape of Third Intention (for the Coral Cup). This race is full of horses that have been touted for greatness, namely Adrien Du Pont, Different Gravey, L’Ami Serge, Camping Ground, Le Rocher and Lil Rockerfeller, the latter to win by the way.
Selections
So, I’ve faffed about with the various races and what is recommended?
Selections:
Double:
Charli Parcs and Frodon
Trebles:
Charli Parcs, Frodon, Elgin
Charli Parcs, Frodon, Irish Saint
Charli Parcs, Frodon, Aso
I’m placing bets now so Elgin, Frodon and Charli Parcs is £98.78 to a £10 stake.
I’ve bet on Charli Parcs, Frodon and Irish Saint for £110 to £10.
The Lucky 15
The bet is 4 singles, 6 doubles, 4 trebles and 1 fourfold accumulator and the selections are:
Charli Parcs
Frodon
Elgin
Landofhopeandglory
Stake £2 x 15 = £30 for a potential £279.02
As ever, good luck!
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