I thought I’d missed the bus today with a slow start. Bacardys’ race was scuppered as a result of the sadly fatal fall of Consul de Thaix. Might Bite prevailed against my view of him although he did his best to lose the race. He’s clearly a very good horse and now 3/1 for the King George and 10/1 for next year’s Gold Cup. I’d mentioned in the previews that Douvan hadn’t beaten much and it was clear from early on that he was unsettled by the shape of the race. I’m convinced that WP was right when he said that he over-stretched in his jumps and he will undoubtedly be reported to have injured himself. I hope that he comes back from it but he’s now in the Sprinter Sacre category. Special Tiara was a very well deserved winner and has capped his CV with this unexpected achievement.
Then things got much better. Cause of Causes is now a Cheltenham hero with his third festival win. Divin Bere was a valiant second and Fayonagh (7/1) provided the perfect end to the day with a classic Jamie Codd last to first charge in the home straight, after a dreadful start. This is the Festival of Gordon Elliott, Jamie Codd and Noel Fe-hily, no matter what else happens.
With an eye to Friday it has to be said that, bar Fox Norton’s second in the Champion Chase, Colin Tizzard has had a poor Festival to date and this must be a factor when considering the Gold Cup selection.
So, on to Thursday. The decision to water the course when the going is good, good to soft, has caused some consternation, but it’s no surprise given my initial view on Tuesday and its tendency to run faster than the old course.
JLT Novices’ Chase
Choice: Politologue** (9/1 -> 8/1 -> unchanged -> 13/2 -> 6/1)
Bookies are divided about my selection, with prices varying from 9/2 to 13/2. I’m not going to change now, particularly with WP’s uncharacteristic drought. It’s worth bearing in mind that some of his horses have run well and been fairly and squarely beaten (Melon, Limini, Vroum Vroum Mag) but others haven’t come to the party and Yorkhill, although very talented, is a headcase and could win by a mile or bomb out. Top Notch, particularly given Nicky Henderson’s form deserves respect, but I’d prefer Politologue in a head to head.
Pertemps
No selection
This is not a race that I have a strong view about and I may well swerve it. Impulsive Star has a lot of fans and Golden Doyen should not be ignored. I’ll be having a little each way wager on Aubusson, whose best form is on soft and heavy, but has a classy race in him now and then.
Ryanair Chase
Choice: Un de Sceaux*** (5/2 -> 4/1 -> 100/30 -> 11/4)
One to watch: Uxizandre (7/1 -> 6/1 -> 4/1). Three weeks ago: “I’m still happy with this one as a place selection. Get on now because this race will cut up severely”.
Well, the race has cut up severely and here is a genuine dilemma. I’m inclined to stick with Un de Sceaux to buck the WP trend but Barry Geraghty said at the start of the week that Uxizandre was the ride that he will most miss. Empire of Dirt runs here, contrary to the trainer’s preference for the Gold Cup, so you have to think that this is all about the owner winning his own race. For that reason among others I’m going to stick with my initial selection.
Stayers’ Hurdle
Choice: Unowhatimeanharry**** (13/8 ->11/8 -> unchanged -> 5/4)
I said weeks ago that Unowhatimeanharry**** should be odds on and you can still get 6/4 in places. This one is going to give Noel Fehily an unbelievable treble of championship race wins and good for him. The only threat in my book is Jezki and you have to buy into all kinds of possibles and maybes to go down that road.
Brown Advisory Plate
I said no choice in this one throughout the build up and I haven’t changed my mind. Which one would you have? I’ve heard people in previews big up Diamond King, the current 5/1 favourite but I can’t select him. I think that this one will go to a long odds winner and, of those, I’ll make a very tentative selection with Champagne At Tara*, although the ground is probably against him.
Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle
This is a pain in the arse race because it messes up other options. If Let’s Dance** (3/1 -> 7/4 -> unchanged) turns up here, she is the selection and will win.
Well, this is about WP’s runners whether we want it to be or not. The bottom line is that I think that Let’s Dance** is better than Airlie Beach and I can’t have any of the others. Having said that, I should mention that ATR’s Gary O’Brien flagged up Forge Meadow as a live contender.
Kim Muir
I can see why Squouateur is the favourite but he’s not for me. My preference is for Mall Dini** at an appealing 7/1 to round off the penultimate day. However, this is another watch the market race, because there is often a plunge horse.
Leave a Reply