Now that most bookies are non runner no bet (NRNB – make sure you have that if you’re betting) and some of the entries are in, it’s time to take a look at how the land lies for the 2018 Cheltenham Festival. Regular readers will know that I often reserve my bets until race day, particularly when it comes to short price favourites but we need to start somewhere.
I highly recommend Lydia Hislop’s “Road to Cheltenham” which is now well established as the authoritative guide to the National Hunt Olympics. There’s no need to pay for desktop readers of the form when this is free, very well-informed and, self-evidently, a journalistic tour de force.
I’m astonished that Shantou Flyer (100/1) has been entered for the Gold Cup. Good luck to my former CLB partner Carl Hinchy. This has to be the definition of keeping the faith!
This season has been, even more than usual, one which has been characterised by the failures of big names. It started with Our Duke at Down Royal and has continued unabated, reaching its zenith (to date) at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting. Many of the Irish trainers have pinpointed the new Dublin Racing Festival on 3 and 4 February as their target for collective redemptions and I’ll be there to see how it plays out. As you’ll gather from the early selections made below I have serious reservations about most of them and I’m more interested in seeing a few newcomers stamping their credentials (a good reason for looking at the markets now).
My shortlist is fairly easy, comprising horses that have obvious top level ability and they are:
Footpad (7/4 – Arkle)
I am a francophile (if you haven’t been racing at Pompadour you need to put it in your bucket list!). The Munir/Souede buying policy has borne fruit well and truly this season and their interest in French racing has, in my humble view, never been better deployed than giving this one regular returns to his hurdles (small fences) debut at Auteuil. It’s made him one of the most natural jumpers I’ve seen in a long time and he’s got loads of speed as well as winning form over 2m 3 1/2f. The perfect profile.
Buveur d’Air (4/6 – Champion Hurdle)
His only serious opponent would have been Faugheen but, even if WP’s successor to Hurricane Fly makes it to the Dublin Racing Festival and wins, he’s 10 and, for me, would still be under a cloud. Apart from him, Buveur leads the market at 8/1 bar and that’s a fair measure.
Samcro (2/1 – Ballymore Hurdle)
You have to assume that this is where he will run, which is a fairly safe bet in itself (I expect that Next Destination will turn up in the Albert Bartlett). Some people knock maiden hurdles form in Ireland but, although this one brings a vastly superior and unbeaten record to the table, I have to remember (you’ll have to indulge me here) the progress of Quatre Heures (a horse in which I was lucky enough to have an interest about 10 years ago). QH progressed nicely, via Leopardstown, Naas and Navan. Although Cheltenham didn’t suit him in the Supreme, he went on to win a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival. What marked him out as a contender was his 5th of 20 in a similar race to Samcro’s first outing over hurdles (a low level maiden at Punchestown last October). He’s gone on to win the Grade 3 Monkstown at Navan and it’s his dominant running style that really appeals, more than the margins of victory. I think that this 6-y-o might turn out to be a genuine star.
Apples Shakira (4/1 – Triumph Hurdle)
This one could not have been more impressive in her two outings this season. Obviously, like others, I’m taken with the fact that she’s a sibling of Apples Jade but, putting that aside, her wins at Cheltenham suggest that she really is a class apart. The obvious question is how she might perform in a big field but I’m happy to take the view that, subject to any late winter/early spring springers, she’ll dominate the 2014/2018 4-y-o crop.
As always, don’t follow me blind because I’ve no doubt that I’ll have dozens of changes of mind (well, that’s what it’s all about isn’t it?) and, above all, good luck!!
Tuesday 13 March
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Espoir d’Allen (8/1)
Arkle Novices’ Chase
Footpad (7/4)
Ultima Handicap Chase
No bet yet
Champion Hurdle
Buveur d’Air (4/6)
Mares’ Hurdle
Apples Jade (8/11)
National Hunt Chase
Black Corton (20/1)
Close Brothers Chase
No bet yet
Wednesday 14 March
Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle
Samcro (9/4)
Coral Cup
No bet yet
RSA Chase
Presenting Percy (7/1)
Champion Chase
Altior (11/8)
Cross Country
Cause of Causes (4/1)
Fred Winter
No bet yet
Champion Bumper
No bet yet
Thursday 15 March
JLT Novices’ Chase
Brain Power (16/1)
Pertemps Final
No bet yet
Ryanair Chase
Un de Sceaux (9/2)
Stayers’ Hurdle
Sam Spinner (4/1)
Brown Advisory Plate
Clan des Obeaux (16/1)
Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle
Countister (12/1)
Kim Muir Chase
No bet yet
Friday 16 March
Triumph Hurdle
Apples Shakira (4/1)
County Hurdle
No bet yet
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
Next Destination (8/1)
Gold Cup
Coney Island (11/1)
Foxhunters’ Chase
Caid du Berlais (14/1)
Martin Pipe Hurdle
No bet yet
Grand Annual
Copaine de Classe (25/1)
Leave a Reply