Cheltenham update

First, a reflection on last weekend. I was really looking forward to Coney Island’s participation in the Ascot Chase but he was a bitter disappointment. Like Faugheen, the trainer has no explanation for his lacklustre performance and he must now be discounted for Cheltenham. Cue Card performed admirably but Jean Bishop’s decision to go for the Gold Cup instead of the Ryanair is, in my humble view, wrong. Waiting Patiently was hugely impressive but both jockey and trainer were immediately adamant that at least soft ground is required. Ruth Jefferson has, admirably, made clear that in her view Cheltenham is not the be all and end all and identified Kempton’s King George as the long term objective. I agree. Frodon put in another really decent show but it was new star Bryony Frost on her best mate Black Corton who, for me, stole the show. Regular readers will know that I highlighted this pair at the start of the season and I am less surprised than some by their progress. Even against the likes of Presenting Percy this one is now the selection for the RSA, where he should most deservedly take his place. In my initial preview I chose him for the National Hunt Chase at 20/1 and he’s now 10/1 for the RSA.

It’s a shame that Stormy Ireland didn’t make it to the Dublin Racing Festival but, assuming that this was attributable to a minor setback, he shouldn’t be ignored (currently 8/1 for the Triumph Hurdle).

I said in an earlier post that the Gold Cup was wide open and that I wanted to see Native River and Coney Island before making my mind up. Might Bite is a justified favourite but not my choice. Based on what I’ve seen, Our Duke is a bit of a talking horse and is likely to clout at least one so, for me, it has to be Native River to do what several have in recent years, win well in a prep and go to the race very fresh but with a reliable jumping style and loads of stamina.

It’s a shame that Espoir d’Allen bombed out at Leopardstown and is now swerving Cheltenham. One to watch out for later in the season.

I called last weekend the last of the preamble but there are a few to watch out for this weekend who could feature. Redicean (excellent pedigree) is properly favourite for the Adonis but is, at best, a place option for the Triumph. Mont des Avaloirs is a good bet this weekend for the Dovecote but not, in my view, a Cheltenham selection. Gold Present may be a Cheltenham choice, depending on where he turns up. The Pendil has been reopened so we’ll have to wait and see on that front.

So, on to the current selections:

Tuesday 13 March

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Kalashnikov (15/2)

What a great performance at Newbury in the Betfair Hurdle (formerly the Schweppes). Has dual winning form on good to soft, including at undulating Doncaster. That was the ideal preparation for this race.

Arkle Novices’ Chase

Footpad (7/4 ->11/8)

This one has been my selection all year and all the more so now after his foot perfect performance at Leopardstown. As previously advised he is a Champion Chaser in the making. Petit Mouchoir made a good comeback and lots of people have got very excited about Saint Calvados but I’m not unnerved and this will probably be my bet of the week.

Ultima Handicap Chase

No selection yet

Alan King caused a ripple of excitement on Sunday by suggesting on Luck on Sunday that this might be a good option for Yanworth (now 10/1 favourite) off 149. I’d have Gold Present, Monbeg Notorious, Beware The Bear and Frodon ahead of him.

Champion Hurdle

Buveur d’Air (4/6 -> 1/2)

After his saunter in the Contenders Hurdle, there is no reason to assume that any of the others will get near to him in what is likely to be one of the easiest Champion Hurdles for years. Wicklow Brave is a good call for a place, as is the likely to be supplemented Elgin, but this could turn out to be one of the smallest fields for years.

Mares’ Hurdle

Apples Jade (8/11 -> 4/6)

Similarly, this is a race with one outstanding candidate.

National Hunt Chase

No selection yet

Black Corton was the initial selection but he will surely now go for the RSA. This all depends on who turns up where. We will have to wait and see.

Close Brothers Chase

No bet yet

As above.

Wednesday 14 March

Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

Samcro (9/4 -> 8/11)

All the signs are that Samcro will turn up here, in which case 8/11 is still good value. He was so impressive at Dublin and, for many, is the best around and surely too good for any opponents in this one. The next best of the week (after Footpad).

Coral Cup

No bet yet

Still too early to take a view.

RSA Chase

Black Corton (10/1)

This selection has displaced Presenting Percy. It’s impossible to ignore his progress and last weekend’s victory in the Reynoldstown showed that he’s able to maintain a pace that will have others in serious trouble (even if the time was slow, which it was).

Champion Chase

Altior (11/8 -> 8/11)

A symmetrical switch in the betting is entirely deserved after his super return in the Betfair Exchange Chase (formerly the Game Spirit) at Newbury the weekend before last. We needed to know that he’s retained his superior speed and jumping and he has. The only other serious contenders are Min and Douvan (if the latter can avoid doing a Faugheen and I doubt it).

Cross Country

Cause of Causes (4/1 -> 7/2)

The battle of the Bolger/Elliott green and gold brigade. I think that we can now discount Cantlow (never a favourite of mine) and I’ve followed Auvergnat one or two too many times. The slower pace of the Cross Country will suit the typically unimpressive Cause of Causes in his prep race and this is now surely a better option for this 10-y-o than the Foxhunters.

Fred Winter

No selection yet

Saldier was a mightily impressive winner at Gowran last weekend and is currently 10/1 for the Triumph. However, I think that, if entered, he could be an easy winner of this.

Champion Bumper

Blackbow (13/2)

I have the benefit of having seen Blackbow live at Leopardstown and I was very impressed. WP has said that his best shot at this is Hollowgraphic but we haven’t seen him since December and he didn’t beat much at Punchestown. As ever, the bet on this one might only be minutes before the off.

Thursday 15 March

JLT Novices’ Chase

Monalee (14/1)

If it was my choice I would readily select this race ahead of the RSA for Monalee because it’s much more winnable and his performance at Leopardstown (Grade 1) shows that this distance suits. Please choose this one! A tough, tough, horse who nonetheless has the speed for this.

Pertemps Final

No bet yet

Ryanair Chase

Un de Sceaux (9/2 -> 3/1)

The Ryanair has, contrary to the view of many, been one of my favourite races since it was introduced. Too many people overlook the fact that, at 3m 2 1/2f, the Gold Cup is a race for out and out stayers and this is an entirely legitimate championship race. I’ve got a good record in it in terms of selections and the current 3/1 for Un de Sceaux is remarkable value given the lack of serious opposition. We could see some serious defectors from other potential targets to shake up the market but, as matters stand, I expect Un de Sceaux to be at least half his current price on the day.

Stayers’ Hurdle

Sam Spinner (4/1 -> 11/2)

I see this as a head to head between Supasundae and Sam Spinner. The former is admirably consistent but the coming horse has the potential to become a star (if he’s not already). It would also be a great win for a small yard.

Brown Advisory Plate

Clan des Obeaux (16/1 -> 16/1)

This one is a bit of a mystery because Clan des Obeaux hasn’t been seen since coming second in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup and currently has no entries. Incidentally, Caspian Caviar must be the most unlikely consistent sponsor of a Grade 3 race but all credit to them for doing so. They are also a supplier of foie gras (assuming that the Labour and Conservative parties don’t stop them!). If only I could take them to Emmanuel Provin’s superb orchards in Saint Martin de Gurson where the geese and ducks run over to be fed!

I’ll stick with Clan des Obeaux for now pending further news.

Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle

Countister (12/1 -> 12/1)

Everyone seems to want to be with Laurina and I understand why. She’s the probable winner but I’m happy to stick with Countister with loads of room for improvement and particularly after Dame de Compagnie’s defeat by a 12/1 shot last Saturday.

Kim Muir Chase

No selection yet

Still too early.

Friday 16 March

Triumph Hurdle

Apples Shakira (4/1 -> 3/1)

I can’t believe that this one is still trading at 3/1. The Triumph is not the cavalry charge that it used to be (following the introduction of the Fred Winter) and can be won on the snaff by a good one. This is a very, very good one and should be 6/4. Third best choice of the week.

County Hurdle

No selection yet

The market has been shaken up by the suggestion that flat campaigner Max Dynamite might go for this one, currently 8/1 fav and last seen in the Sha Tin Group 1 Hong Kong Vase and, before that, third in the Melbourne Cup. Let’s wait and see how this one pans out.

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

Next Destination (8/1 -> 6/1)

Not a favourite race of mine. I’ll stick with the selection for now but it’s the least confident of them.

Gold Cup

Native River (6/1)

Native River replaces Coney Island as my selection. My view remains that Might Bite is not the Gold Cup winner. Although now more competitive, ahead of the first three or four the market falls apart. As I’ve stated above, the Gold Cup is all about staying and Native River is a great grinder who definitively fits that bill.

Foxhunters’ Chase

Caid du Berlais (14/1 -> 14/1)

Happy to stay with the current selection for now.

Martin Pipe Hurdle

No selection yet

I’ll probably make a selection for this one on the day.

Grand Annual

Copaine de Classe (25/1)

Happy to stick with this one for now.

 

Good luck!!