The going is currently soft (5.7) on the old course which is in use for the first two days. It’s expected to be sticky and dead under the top covering so you need horses that have form on soft. The strange weather over the winter has also affected the grass. It was 6.3 on the equivalent day in 2022.
Tuesday
13:30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Facile Vega 5/2f
Can you forgive the last run at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF)? I’m not sure that I can.
Il Etait Temps (9/2)
Won really well in the same race and the ground will suit. Only 1lb behind Facile Vega on Timeform ratings and taken to repeat the win.
Marine Nationale (5/1)
Much heralded but hasn’t run for 100 days which is a big negative for me. Won the Royal Bond but hasn’t been tested at the same level as some of the others.
Of them, High Definition (18/1) was a good flat horse but will surely be unsuited by the ground and there are questions over jumping. Rare Edition is an each way possible at 25/1 (look for extra places with the bookies).
Selections It Etait Temps / Rare Edition (e/w)
14:10 Arkle
El Fabiolo (6/4f)
Second to Jonbon in an Aintree Grade 1 hurdle last season and has really impressed in his two chases this term. Timeform top rated.
Jonbon (7/4)
Only beaten once (by Constitution Hill in last year’s Supreme). Questions after last outing at Warwick and I think that El Fabiolo has the edge.
Dysart Dynamo (13/2)
Very fast (maybe too fast) and only one way of running – flat out. Has form on soft and heavy. Could build up a decent lead but surely the others will haul him in.
Selection El Fabiolo
14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase
6/1 the field is about right and this could go to a longer odds horse that relishes the test and the ground. Last year’s winner Corach Rambler is the favourite and carries only 6lb more. However, I’m picking two at 18/1, Fantastikas and The Big Breakaway.
15:30 Champion Hurdle
Constitution Hill (4/11) has everything and is shaping to be one of the best hurdlers of recent years. Timeform rated 10lb ahead of the field and could easily justify more. There is even talk of him running in the Ascot Gold Cup if all goes well here.
State Man (100/30) would be the likely winner in a normal year but has come up against a monster in the favourite.
Jason The Militant is worth a look at 150/1 e/w (first two only).
My selection is Constitution Hill by 10 lengths or more and State Man to finish second at 3/1 (Paddy Power).
16:10 Mares’ Hurdle
This is a great race. I’m against last year’s winner and current favourite Marie’s Rock (9/4), as well as Honeysuckle and Epatante, both of whom are past their best. Brandy Love is respected but my selection is last year’s Mares’ Novices’ winner, the ever progressive Love Envoi, at an appealling 9/1.
16:50 Boodles Handicap Hurdle
Tekao is too short for me at 7/2. Bad is an intriguing entry, making his UK debut, having only ever run (on good to soft and heavy) at Bordeaux Le Bouscat. Sir Allen could improve, but I’m going for an e/w outsider Fils De Roi at 50/1.
17:30 National Hunt Chase
Gaillard Du Mesnil (Evens) looks head and shoulders above the opposition. Third in last year’s Brown Advisory and Irish Grand National, decent placed performances behind Mighty Potter and a Grade 1 winner last Christmas, he should arguably be a much shorter price.
Wednesday
13:30 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle
My selection of the week is Impaire Et Passe (7/4). Rightly deserving of a “big P” in Timeform’s ratings (163), this one was also chosen by David Casey as his pick of the week in this morning’s Road To Cheltenham.
Hermes Allen was a good winner of an above average Challow Hurdle but that route to Cheltenham does not have a good track record.
Gaelic Warrior was just pipped in last year’s Fred Winter but he has a tendency to jump right. Won a Grade B hurdle last month but the other races this season were at 1/14 and 1/12 at Clonmel and Tramore and therefore pretty meaningless.
14:10 Brown Advisory Chase
Many tipsters won’t hear of defeat for 7/4f Gerri Colombe but I’m not so sure. Sir Gerhard is very inexperienced and put in a novicey performance in his only chase outing. However, he won the Champion Bumper two years ago and the Ballymore last season and that Cheltenham form has to be respected. The Real Whacker won the Dipper here on very similar ground on New Year’s Day and is my selection, ahead of Thyme Hill, who won the Kauto Star at Kempton at Christmas, albeit in a very slow time.
14:50 Coral Cup
As usual, this is a wide open race so I’m picking two, pretty much at random, HMS Seahorse (9/1) and Icare Allen (25/1).
15:30 Champion Chase
I see this as a pick’em between the pair that head the field, Edwardstone (6/4) and Energumene (7/4) and, just on balance, I prefer the former.
16:10 Cross Country
Franco De Port is reportedly being aimed at the Grand Steeplechase De Paris, with this as a stepping stone. Davy Russell appears to have chosen Galvin ahead of Delta Work and it’s 18/1 bar the top three. This is Galvin’s first attempt in this discipline, having come fourth in last year’s Gold Cup, and think that Davy is on the right one.
16:50 Grand Annual
The last four winners of this race were priced at 28/1, 14/1, 7/2 and 66/1. It will be fast and furious. Final Orders is a five times’ winner over fences and seems ideally suited to this type of race. After his last win I decided that I would follow him wherever he truned up and this seems just fine to me at 6/1.
17:30 Champion Bumper
The received wisdom is that when Willie Mullins throws a number of darts at this, there is no anticipated winner. I have no idea what will win and, I suspect, nor do they. The current favourite, A Dream To Share, is not a WP horse but I suspect that won’t be the case at the off. As ever, it is worth keeping a close eye on market movers. Based on races I’ve watched I’ll go for It’s For Me (5/1) and Fun Fun Fun (9/1), both sporting the double greens of Simon Munir and Isaac Suede, with the latter benefiting from the significant mares’ allowance of 7lb.
Good luck!
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