I’m looking forward to the Cheltenham Christmas meeting tomorrow and Saturday and the annual visit to Ludlow next Wednesday.
Cheltenham Friday
A big bias towards favourites and those towards the top of the market. Last year’s winners at the corresponding meeting were 5/1, 7/4, 10/1, 9/4, 10/1, 4/1 and 3/1 so make of that what you will.
12:05 Old Park Star 9/4
12:40 Califet En Vol (Caliphate In Flight) – an exciting chase prospect for Henderson – 5/4
13:15 Fortune De Mer 7/2 – won a Grade 2 novices’ here.
13:50 King Turgeon 11/2 – ran well at Aintree and won this last year. Can’t have L’Homme Presse after a 300 days’ break and with Venetia’s generally poor form this year. Herakles Westwood is the second best.
14:25 Eldorado Allen was impressive last time out – 100/30. Fugitif (Carl Hinchy) is the tipsters’ favourite but surely this is his last Cheltenham outing.
15:00 Mister Coffey (13/2) is probably the best known nearly horse in training (0 wins, 9 seconds, 3 thirds chasing) but has all in his favour and maybe, just maybe, will finally win a chase.
15:35 Lucky Manifest (5/2) is my nap of the day. Trained by Tom Lacey who is having his best season for ages, possibly ever, has this one for Raceshare. I have a miniscule share in Gibbs Island (same trainer and jockey) and this is the one that I should have chosen!
Saturday
12:10 This is one of my favourite races of the year, favoured by many trainers to debut their Triumph prospects. No selection but my ones to watch are Minella Study, One Horse Town, Arnolphe and, particularly, Macshadow des Crai.
12:40 Haiti Couleurs was last year’s winner and I’m with The Jukebox Kid this time. Impressive jumps debut and beat First Confession (9l) last time out.
13:15 I’m not a fan of mares’ handicap chases unless there is a star performer. I’ll watch the market and be guided accordingly.
13:50 It’s great that this has been named as the Support The Hunt Family Fund December Gold Cup Handicap Chase, supporting John Hunt’s fundraiser, after the horrific attack on his family. I’m very pleased to see that the Queen has recorded a special broadcast with John and his surviving daughter Amy, arranged with Baroness May (formerly Theresa May), which will air on the Radio 4 Today programme on New Year’s Eve. The online fundraising auction is tonight (Thursday) and here – https://bidaid.com/auction/HFF and it’s great to see that all the offers have exceeded their reserves. It’s also wonderful to see so many high profile contributors, partcularly those involved in racing and racing media.
On to the race. Jagwar should win this but I prefer Ga Law to spring a surprise at 25/1.
14:25 I see this as between JPR One and David’s Well, who is on a four timer. I watched (on TV) JPR One last time out and wasn’t impressed with his third at Ascot or, for that matter, his previous third at Exeter. David’s Well’s form is at a lower level (Class 3, 3 and 4) but he is progressive and benefits from a corresponding 10st 3lbs.
15:00 This is typically a good marker for the spring festivals. Last year’s winner, Jet Blue (for David Cottin/James Reveley) didn’t progress in the Cheltenham Festival equivalent. I’m generally inclined against Lucinda Russell/Derek Fox horses (with Ahoy Senor the notable exception) but Conman John looks like a proper horse with loads of potential, having won here in October. I’ve just watched the replay and he was headstrong but likely to improve a great deal for that run.
15:35 This was won by Wodhooh last year and Nurse Susan in 2023. There’s no doubt that Paul Nicholls is not the force that he was (no reflection on his training and all about getting the right horses in the yard) but he has a top contender in No Drama This End who was out last weekend. His suggestion that he could be the next Denman is perhaps reflective of his need for another superstar but he’s the best that I’ve seen this year (including WP’s). Meanwhile, some way down from No Drama This End, is Jubilee Alpha, who runs in this race. Like the last race, I’ve watched the last outing at Wincanton and she was definitely the winner but for a blunder at the second last, beaten by Sweet Caryline, on a four-timer, who she faces again in this race. I’m unconvinced that she’ll beat the best of the Irish in the spring festivals, but she should win this (nap).
Ludlow – next Wednesday
I’ll post my selections when we have the declarations next week. I’m familiar with this meeting, having been there for the last few years. What’s notable this year is the number of entries and the number of leading trainers among them. I suspect that this is to do with having better ground after a dryish start to the season.
A few initial observations:
Notable entries (no offence to the regulars):
12:13 Class 4 32 entries Nicky Henderson (2); Dan Skelton (3); Greenall/Guerriero (5)
12:43 Class 4 11 entries Nigel/Willy Twiston-Davies (1); Hobbs/White (1)
13:13 Class 4 25 entries Greenall/Gerriero (2); Twiston-Davies (1); Nicky Henderson (1); Emma Lavelle (1); Warren Greatrex (1); Dan Skelton (3)
13:45 Class 3 10 entries Twiston-Davies (1); Kim Bailey (1); Venetia Williams (1); David Pipe (1); Paul Nicholls (1)
14:20 Class 4 18 entries Hobbs/White (1); Greenall/Guerriero (1); Henderson (2); Skelton (1)
14:55 Class 4 20 entries Venetia Williams (1); Greenall/Guerriero (1); Ben Pauling (2)
15:30 Class 4 13 entries Venetia Williams (1); Kim Bailey (2); Paul Nicholls (2); Greenall/Guerriero (1); Dan Skelton (1)
I hope that a number of the big yards stand their ground and make this a meeting with a few proper prospects.
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