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After yesterday’s successes today is a much harder and mainly watching day for me.
Here are the quick selections:
1.30 Neptune
Beast of Burden (12/1) ***
2.05 RSA Chase
The Young Master (11/2) **
2.40 Coral Cup
Un Atout (14/1) *
3.20 Champion Chase (Champagne Fever is a non-runner)
Special Tiara (20/1 e/w) *
4.00 Cross Country
Toutancarmont (7/1) **
4.40 Fred Winter
no bet
5.15 Champion Bumper
Vigil (8/1) *
Well it all goes a bit crazy betting wise about now. Putting aside the bookies’ offers the Betfair exchange can be volatile to say the least. However it is still the most informative guide.
With that in mind, here goes.
1.30 Supreme Novices’
I think that Douvan is the riskiest of the big four for WP Mullins. Definitely not the first choice for this at the start of the season and, with form that you have to believe for what it is (and no more), What you have to do is believe the hype (unlike the proven Faugheen over his entire career). L’Ami Serge is the only serious opponent and I can’t have him.
Douvan 2.76 win ***
2.05 Arkle Chase
Why are people thinking that Un de Sceaux will fall? It’s a novices’ chase and all are uncertain in that regard. This is another two horse race (Vibrato Valtat is the other) and as many have said, if he doesn’t fall he wins. He won’t fall.
Un de Sceaux 1.8 win ***** (nap)
2.40 Ultima Chase 3m 1f Grade 3
The first big challenge of the day and to be avoided other than for the placepot. However, again there are few serious candidates. I can’t have Pendra or The Druids Nephew and I’m therefore looking at Mendip Express, second to my bet of the week Beast of Burden at Bangor last month, plus a super second in the Becher Chase, Ned Stark (seriously unexposed) and Gevrey Chambertin (a good each way option as well as Friday’s wine choice!).
Mendip Express 13 win *
Gevrey Chambertin ** 16 place *
3.20 Champion Hurdle
Faugheen the… Ruby’s chosen him against Hurricane Fly – not exactly a surprise but nonetheless significant. I definitively cannot have The New One – just not good enough. Jezki is the threat – winner of an inferior race last year but reportedly better than ever on his last workout before travelling. The others make up the numbers. I don’t see any reason why Faugheen won’t win this easily.
Faugheen (excellent value at) 2.2 win **** (next best)
4.00 Mares’ Hurdle
Now a Grade 1 and the two time Grade 1 winner is Annie Power. I’ve been a fan of this horse, primarily because of her running style and would have chosen her for last year’s Champion Hurdle (had she run). Her valiant 1 1/2 lengths defeat to More Of That over the wrong distance bottomed her. That is a problem. She is the second riskiest option for WP. We have to trust that he’s got her ready. The Punchestown win against massively inferior opposition last May proved nothing.
However, if she even 60% she beats the opposition, primarily Glens Melody, another WP horse. I won’t be in the least surprised if she hoses up or if she is pulled up. I suspect that it will be one or the other. Not a betting option for me (unless I’m desperate!).
Annie Power 1.73 * (at the price)
4.40 Toby Balding 4m Chase – Amateurs
It’s easy to think that this is a handicap but it’s not! It’s an amateurs’ race full of handicappers. That’s important to remember as is the distance. And that said, the field can be reduced to a few serious candidates. They are: Very Wood (5), Cause of Causes (8), Sego Success (6), The Job Is Right (8) and, as an outsider, Broadway Buffalo (22).
My choice is Cause Of Causes. Excellent jockey, campaigned against the best of the Irish and with good Cheltenham form (Kim Muir second). I know that they think highly of Very Wood (moved here from the RSA). He beat The Job Is Right and no others in a beginners’ chase and I think that people are carried away by the idea of his win in what was a very poor Albert Bartlett.
Cause Of Causes 9.4 ***
5.15 CHAPS Novices’ Chase 2m 4f+
Now, I can’t believe that Keltus has got in as joint bottom weight, even off 11st 4lb. This horse was fourth in last year’s Fred Winter (well ahead of Violet Dancer – see later in the week) and could have been in proper graded races but is ideally placed here. Thomas Crapper and Generous Ransom are respected but this is our tidy little winner to end the card on a high.
I’ll also keep an eye out for Horizontal Speed (Hobbs/Johnson), sired by Vertical Speed, who was also responsible for the best racing day of my life (even in defeat), Quatre Heures (Vertical Speed/Macyrienne).
Keltus 9.5 **
So, here they are for day one and, as usual, ready to be revisited at about 6.00 p.m. tomorrow.
I recommend this placepot:
1. L’Ami Serge
2. Un de Sceaux
3. Mendip Express, Gevrey Chambertin
4. Glens Melody
5. Cause of Causes
6. Thomas Crapper
I also think that, if ever there was a day, this is the one for a Lucky 15, but not the obvious one!
2.05 Cheltenham – Un de Sceaux
2.20 Sedgfield – Jennys Melody
3.15 Cheltenham – Faugheen
4.15 Sedgfield – Honourable Guest
Good luck!!!
What are the odds of WP Mullins’ utter domination of day one of the Festival? Well, pretty good in my view. As usual I’ve done my best (not hard work!) to catch most of the main races of the season with a view to preparing a Cheltenham Festival shortlist and here is part one. I’ve avoided consideration of alternatives for now but they will follow. This is the hard list! I’ve avoided the “support races” because it’s too early to know whether some of the big ones will go.
Tuesday
Day one is therefore, in the early part, a favourites’ fiesta.
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Douvan (7/4). Has been put forward as WP’s best shot although what to make of that is very debatable. What is not in doubt are this horse’s credentials and the Racing Post has today reported that Mullins thinks that the ground will suit.
Arkle
Un de Sceaux (4/7). A single seal (in the legal sense) is the translation and this one must seal victory because he is, quite simply, miles ahead of the opposition and that is his running style. Prepared perfectly for this and unopposable. Avoided Cheltenham and beat the best in France (Gemix) last season.
Champion Hurdle
Faugheen (5/4). My view is simply this: why would he be beaten? A perfect record to date and it’s not just the form – it’s the manner of his victories. Proven at Cheltenham last year in the Neptune (admittedly not against the toughest opposition) but, critically, with the perfect mix of speed and stamina for the hill.
Mares’ Hurdle
Annie Power (4/7) would be a serious contender in the championship races but, because of the others in the yard / same ownership, she is the natural successor to Quevega. In my view she’s much better and running at her correct distance (assuming, fairly safely that she goes for this one).
Wednesday
Neptune
Here’s my first big odds call. I was very impressed by Beast of Burden (16/1) at Bangor just about a month ago. Rebecca Curtis’ horse has only had other outings (twice) at Ffos Las and once when second in a maiden hurdle at Newbury but I’m taking the view that this is a big improver who has been given his best distance and is a proper “dark horse”.
RSA Chase
I’m a big fan of The Young Master (7/1). If this horse was in a bigger yard he would be much shorter. Geraghty is booked and I think that he’ll have a dream ride on a horse that I bet some of the really big owners would love to have. Cheltenham winning form against decent opposition in an amateurs’ race over 3m 1f on the old course is a big plus.
Champion Chase
Oh, this is the big dilemma. Sticking to my rule I’m not going to mention the obvious contenders and the new pretender but I’m going against them all and sticking with Cheltenham specialist Champagne Fever (a generous 5/1). This horse will relish the likely ground (unlike his most recent but nonetheless winning outing at Gowran) and, in my view, his ideal distance. Don’t forget his outing in the Arkle last year – the moral winner.
Champion Bumper
This is always subject to the betting on the day. Ricci says that Bordini (7/1) is the choice but we’ll wait and see.
So, there they are. A decent mix of favourites on day one and longer odds on day two. I’ve not watched any previews so these selections are mine alone. If you’re not used to racing betting then I strongly suggest a few combination bets on day one and a few selective bets on day two. Good luck!
Aintree Racecourse has really got it right this weekend. Giving away “Mini Rums” in Liverpool city centre:
Our #FabulousFriday mini Rummys are going very fast…pick one up from Liverpool Central Station! pic.twitter.com/AOMzv9JqpM
— Aintree Racecourse (@AintreeRaces) December 5, 2014
and offering Ladies’ Day tickets for the best Mini Rum selfie:
Got this little guy this morning, so I’m taking him to London for the day! Excited already #4months @AintreeRaces pic.twitter.com/nJorjBPcN8
— Polly Prescott (@pollyprescott) December 5, 2014
This, along with the free tickets that could see a 40,000 plus turnout tomorrow is how to get non-racing people involved and enthusiastic. I suspect that even if they get 30,000 this will, at once, turn into something similar to a Festival day. The racecourse will probably make more money from on-course sales than tickets in previous years and, of course, have created an event which is threatening to eclipse the established feature of this weekend, Sandown’s Tingle Creek. At this rate you could see the Sandown feature relocated. OK, that’s probably going a bit too far!
The racing fraternity have not let them down. A record entry of 25 for the Becher Chase and a graded chase in all but name with serious Gold Cup contenders notwithstanding the small field.
So, on to the selections.
Yesterday’s post set the groundwork for what is to follow so I’ll keep it brief:
Aintree
12.00 Class 3 Novices’ Hurdle 2m 1f
This has to be an outstanding opportunity for Beast of Burden (2/1) after the impressive bumper win at Ffos Las for Mr Carl Hinchy.
12.30 Class 1 Listed Juvenile Hurdle 2m 1f
Three unraced horses so it’s a bit of a risk. Nyanza is a justified favourite but, on very little, I prefer Hannahs Magic (5/2) for my Aintree favourite, David Casey on board!
1.00 Class 3 Handicap Chase 2m 4f
No strong views about this one but just tipped in favour of Baileys Concerto (9/2) and taken what’s currently available on Betfair.
The Becher Chase Grade 3 Class 1 3m 2f
What a great betting option. I set out my shortlist yesterday and I’ve settled on Saint Are (14/1), particularly on the basis of his good run behind Sam Winner (see below) in a Grade 3 at Cheltenham on 15 November. My saver is Chance Du Roy (13/1). I’ll be interested to see whether these prices hold up in the morning. Incidentally I assume that C4’s The Morning Line coming live from Cholmondeley at Donald McCain’s yard is an indication that their primary coverage will be Aintree. Hope so.
2.05 Class 2 Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f
For no obvious reason I’m a big fan of Bear’s Affair. When this Presenting gelding started out I thought he could go all the way. His Aintree record is really good but I know that he’ll win or bomb out. I’m inclined to the former. 14/1 will do nicely thank you! (taken). My followers will know that, to say the least I am not a fan of Tap Night! Really don’t like Creepy and the horrifyingly named Secrete Stream.
2.40 Class 1 Listed 3m 1f Chase
Ha ha! Many will think that Ma Filleule (based on her win in the Topham) is a good thing. Others will think that the highly regarded Holywell will put behind his lamentable performance at Carlisle. As my friends know I’ve been with Sam Winner (3/1) from the start and it’s so much better now that the trainer has worked him out. He’s a lazy horse but one that will keep on and on for encouragement. Not only will he win this (no problems with the sharp track – Nick Scholfield will take care of that), he’ll also become a serious contender for the Gold Cup. I’ve already emptied my Betfair account on him!
3.15 The Grand Sefton Chase Class 2 2m 5f 110y
This has turned out to be it a bit of a weird race. I’ll have a small interest in Dolatulo (8/1 will do nicely).
Sandown
I normally pay a great deal of attention to the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase but not this year. Irish Saint will win but too short at 6/4. He is handy for combinations.
The main race is, of course, the Tingle Creek and I’ve topped up on Betfair and spent it all at 7/2 on Balder Succes, the Champion Chase winner in waiting whether or not the absentees make it.
The double of the day is Irish Saint and Balder Succes.
This is what Bechers used to be. Not any more. The National course still provides a good challenge but the real tests of jumping can now be found in France such as 
Craon,
the Rivières des Tribunes and
Gros Open Ditch at Auteuil and the feared
Taxis in the Pardubice in the Czech Republic.
What we have now at Aintree is a still visually appealing course that most horses get round. The risks now are about the number of runners and speed. It therefore opens up big opportunities for good handicappers such as my selection for last year’s big race.
I’m in strong agreement with Timeform’s Keith Melrose that you should avoid horses that are being tried out for next April. By definition they are not going to be pin sharp for Saturday’s race. However, for staying handicappers this has now become a huge target. Just look at the conditions:
Race Conditions: £140,000 guaranteed For 6yo+ to be ridden by Jockeys or Amateur Riders who, before December 4th, 2014, have ridden not less than 15 winners in chases or hurdles under any Rules of Racing and have ridden not less than 10 of these winners in chases (a novice horse shall only be qualified to run if it has run a minimum of three times in chases in Great Britain, Ireland or France) Minimum weight 10-0 Penalties after November 23rd, a winner of a chase 3lb (no penalty to increase a horse’s weight above 11st 12lb) Al Co’s Handicap Mark 147 Entries 47 pay £ 210 Confirmed 28 Penalty value 1st £78,582.00 2nd £29,554.00 3rd£14,770.00 4th £7,378.00 5th £3,710.00 6th £1,848.00
That’s serious money for the winner and through the places for these type of horses. So, which ones are in the short list?
Chance du Roy
Goonyella
Balbriggan
Saint Are
And then there’s the Grand Sefton (£70,000 race). Pretty much all the prior comments apply but perhaps even more so in terms of this not being a race in which to choose Grand National candidates. This tends to be a very fast run race with the focus on those that hunt round and then stay on. With that in mind I’ll look at those declared tomorrow and update this post.
There are also potentially great supporting races including, in particular, the 2.40 3m1f chase in which I’ll be lumping into Sam Winner to beat Holywell (if they both turn up).
Aintree is expecting a full house which will be great for the atmosphere but I’ll be doing my racing the way I like it – in a pub with Racing UK and good friends. Can’t wait!!
On the back of Aubusson, Caid du Berlais and
Sam Winner it’s about time that I started sharing some selections – time for it all to go wrong!!
Saturday
Newcastle
Quite apart from the dilution caused by last week’s new Haydock race and the trainers’ desire to keep top prospects apart, this card is poor. What does Newcastle expect when the second race is a Class 5 with guaranteed prize money of only £3,300 and finishes with a Class 5 maiden hurdle qualifier worth a total of £4,800.
I’ll therefore confine myself to the Fighting Fifth and the relocated Rehearsal Chase (perhaps the latter should be relocated back to Chepstow and Newcastle can carry on with its AW plans).
2.05 Fighting Fifth Hurdle Grade 1 2m
Notwithstanding the fall at Wincanton I already had reservations about Irving. I’m with Aurore D’Estruval (100/30) with the benefit of a 7lb allowance and good enough for this. I think that she’ll shorten a lot before the off so get on now.
2.40 Rehearsal Chase Listed Class 1
I’m not a big fan of the Lucinda Russell/Peter Scudamore team, nothing to do with them personally and based only on their form with talking horses – Tap Night!!. However, I have always thought that Lie Forrit is talented. 6/1 is a fair price but he’s knocking on and won’t be in any of my combinations.
Newbury
Now we’re talking. I was lucky enough to be there last year with a Lambourn night out thereafter and the whole card is interesting.
12.20 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle Class 1
A Doll In Milan should win this, based on her last run at Lingfield. I’m delighted to see that she’s not favourite (7/2 with Carrigmoorna Rock for Robert Tyner/McCoy taking the helm at 5/2) .
12.50 Novices’ Chase Class 3
This is a perfect race for this time of year. I’m wary of Royal Regatta and The Clock Leary. I’ve also followed Keltus (to my cost and am now deserting him) so my selection is Turn Over Sivola at 5/1. Again a single bet rather than in any combinations.
1.20 Handicap Chase Class 3
Quite simply this is one to avoid. I don’t even have a choice for the placepot!
1.50 Handicap Hurdle Class 2
I think that this is between 4 and 5 in the handicap, Hammersly Lake and Exitas (6/1). I prefer the latter, even though with an unfashionable trainer. He’s won this type of race (at Sandown) and can do so again at 6/1.
2.25 Grade 2 Hurdle 3m 110y
This is one of those easy options when there is a changing of the guard and only one conceivable outcome. Barring bizarre problems this is a penalty kick for More Of That (4/9). However, again, not in my Lucky 15 for the weekend!
3.00 The Hennessy
When Ruby says that his ride has a favourite’s chance you have to take it seriously so Djakadam ( a very fair 11/2) has to be the selection. WP has an unhappy history at Newbury and I think that he wouldn’t be back here unless he was here to make a point on his return (beat Road To Riches out of the park in a novices’ chase but under the radar)! Therefore Djakadam is the first of my multiple for the weekend.
3.35 Handicap Chase Class 2
I rather like Monetaire as a typical Pipe recruit and I see that others are ahead of me now that the price has reduced from 7/2 to 2/1. Oh well – get on now – wildly get shorter!
Sunday
Now then, Newcastle take note. The juvenile hurdle at Fairyhouse is worth €30,000!
My preview for Fairyhouse will follow…
Sunday Lucky 15
Very predictable but races at this time of year often are (yesterday excluded!).
12.30 Kalkir
1.00 Allez Colombieres
1.30 Zaidpour
2.05 The Tullow Tank
£2.00 per line delivers £176.25.
I love this time of year when, almost every week, top horses are making their seasonal outings. This year is no exception and I’ll be posting my views of ones to watch in the next couple of weeks.
Further to Wednesday’s post I’m pleased to see that most of my selections have stood their ground. So here are my selections now that we have the declarations.
2.00 Class 2 2m 1f Handicap Hurdle
I’m pleased to see that the market shares my view that Garde La Victoire and Katgary are the main protagonists but less pleased about the prices! Nonetheless the 4/1 about Katgary is well worth having.
2.30 Class 3 2m 4f Handicap Hurdle
I absolutely cannot have Spirit of Shankly, the current 11/4 favourite. I’m going to chance it with Roberto Pegasus (7/2), more or less on the basis of having eliminated all of the others but without great confidence. I’m never a fan of Worcester form when moving to a “proper racecourse”.
3.00 Class 1 2m 4f Chase
It’s probably not so surprising that Dynaste hasn’t made it here. However, as you know from my last post he wasn’t my choice in any event. Uxizandre is the deserving 4/1 favourite and I think that the price might look generous if, as I expect, this one turns out to be one of the middle ranking stars of the season.
3.40 Class 3 3m 1f Handicap Chase (Veterans)
Without Prince Tom this looks like perfect placement for Burton Port to get off to a winning start. I’m wary because McMurrough, Lie Forrit and Pigeon Island are all rated higher on Timeform but this is a race to go with what I’ve seen myself and Burton Port is the class act and understandably 13/8 (3/1 bar). It’s notable that Pigeon Island has a 10lb claimer on board. Good or bad? I think the latter.
4.15 Class 3 3m 110y Handicap Hurdle (Conditionals)
As I said on Wednesday I can’t pretend to have any real knowledge about these horses so this is a pin-sticker. The market says that Kilfinchen Bay deserves the favourite’s slot at 3/1. I’m more interested in Tarvini (better breeding and better overall form) and possibly Possol but he’s been tried at this level and failed several times. It’s therefore probably the unnamed favourite for me in the Placepot.
4.50 Class 3 2m 4f Novices’ Chase
Now this is a really interesting race and I’m strongly against the market with forecast 11/1 Volcanic. Am I missing something because this was a decent horse with Guy Cherel and has made the classic transition from France to a decent British yard? Everything is right in my book and this is my bet of the day. The only concern is that he gets round and, in my view, if he does he wins. I can’t imagine that Donald McCain has bought him for Elite Racing Club because he’s a donkey! Very strong view about this one. I’m really looking forward to going to the parade ring and checking this one out.
5.25 Class 4 2m 110y Maiden Hurdle
If I’m right about this then the last two races could prove to be a very satisfying end to the day. As with the previous race I’m firmly with a longer shot in the shape of Jacks Last Hope (10/1), unrated by Timeform (although to be fair most of them are) and has to beat the obvious choice, Days of Heaven and the other interesting candidate Apollo Eleven. I’m really positive about Jacks Last Hope.
So here’s the Placepot:
1. 4
2. 7
3. 3
4. 2
5. unnamed favourite
6. 8
Good luck!
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3JVPGh–AY
They’re not going over the National fences this weekend but I’m delighted that the new National Hunt season is under way. The traditional first proper meeting at Chepstow produced a bizarre race in the 4.20 on the “Jumps Legends Raceday” on Saturday 11 October (take a look on ATR) but it’s not until the end of the month that we begin to see the serious contenders for the season. I generally regard the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter as the first serious race and that’s shaping up nicely with Cue Card (the race suits) and the possibility of Sire de Grugy’s participation as a warm up for the Tingle Creek.
Anyway, on to Saturday’s fayre at Aintree (based on entries rather than decs). I’ll be there and really looking forward to an autumn National Hunt day.
2.00 Class 2 2m 1f Handicap Hurdle
I thought that Goodwood Mirage was going to be one of the stars of last season. It didn’t work out that way and the horse looked as if he didn’t like hurdles. With the benefit of a break and JJ O’Neill’s work through the summer it will be fascinating to see whether he’s mastered the art and, if so, he could be serious contender for the season.
By far the more interesting option is Katgary, second in the Fred Winter and a proper 2m and a bit hurdler.
2.30 Class 3 2m 4f Handicap Hurdle
Spirit of Shankly should have been a good horse but is an obvious local entry. Any Given Day did not live up to expectations in my view. Garde La Victoire was good enough to warrant an entry in the Supreme Novices’ where he didn’t deliver but did well afterwards at Taunton and Cheltenham (particularly notable in the latter Class 2).
3.00 Class 1 2m 4f Chase
The Old Roan Chase has the potential to be much better than it has been in recent years, primarily as a result of the possible participation of Dynaste. However I see the more likely winner (subject to declarations) as Uxizandre, an impressive winner of the Manifesto Novices’ Chase in April where he beat Oscar Whisky, Western Warhorse, and Dodging Bullets. I can’t have Wishfull Thinking but I am interested in Edgardo Sol, with Aintree form, now with Emma Lavelle and one of many significant defectors from Nicholls.
3.40 Class 3 3m 1f Handicap Chase (Veterans)
I love Veterans’ chases and this one is potentially full of favourite horses if not favourites to win. Burton Port has had gaps in his career which means that he hasn’t got so many miles on the clock and has course and distance winning form, albeit a long time ago. Hey Big Spender is in my view spent and small course multiple winner Prince Tom might be the one to take this.
4.15 Class 3 3m 110y Handicap Hurdle (Conditionals)
I’ll confess that I know hardly any of these entries. This is one for a long odds winner and, for me, one to avoid.
4.50 Class 3 2m 4f Novices’ Chase
This is fascinating and the eye-catchers for me are Volcanic (Donald McCain) and Solar Impulse (Paul Nicholls). I’ll have a bet but probably moments before the race based on how they look.
5.25 Class 4 2m 110y Maiden Hurdle
Too early to take any firm views about this but I’ll be interested in McCain’s Jacks Last Hope if he turns up.
OK. This one is for my own benefit and anyone else who struggles with layout in html.
When I’m trying to sort out customised pages, particularly in WordPress, I tend to mess up border, margin, padding and content. Thanks to w3schools.com this is what I need to remember.
The rules are important and can lead to hours of irritation if you don’t get them right.
This is the bit that you need to know:
Explanation of the different parts:
- Margin – Clears an area around the border. The margin does not have a background color, it is completely transparent
- Border – A border that goes around the padding and content. The border is inherited from the color property of the box
- Padding – Clears an area around the content. The padding is affected by the background color of the box
- Content – The content of the box, where text and images appear
In order to set the width and height of an element correctly in all browsers, you need to know how the box model works.
Another tool for people who struggle with these things is Firebug for Firefox, a fantastic plugin.
I’ve posted this because I’ve been there and know how frustrating it can be.
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